Renowned Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Apple's current seven projects include three Vision series products and four smart glasses. The company views headsets as the next big trend in Consumer Electronics, with smart glasses similar to Ray-Ban likely to gain popularity first, potentially driving the entire smart glasses market to surpass 10 million units shipped by 2027.
Famed Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released the latest research report stating, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Currently, at least 7 types of head-mounted devices are being secretly developed, including 3 models from the Vision series and 4 models of Smart Glasses.
On the 30th, Ming-Chi Kuo revealed in the report that Apple plans not to launch any new wearable devices in 2026, but will gradually release several products starting from 2027. Among them, smart glasses similar to Ray-Ban are expected to have a shipment volume of 3 million to 5 million units or more in 2027, which is expected to drive the entire smart glasses market to surpass 10 million units shipped in 2027.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo's analysis, Apple's competitive advantage in the Vision series and smart glasses field comes from strong hardware development capabilities and ecosystem integration, but the main challenges still lie in AI-driven operating systems and software development.
He believes that before Apple launches smart glasses with display capabilities, multiple brands are expected to release similar products first to establish an early market position.
Apple Vision product line: M5 version Vision Pro holds its niche, lightweight Vision Air and second generation Pro are poised for launch.
Ming-Chi Kuo detailed the planning of three products in Apple's Vision series. The Vision Pro M5 version is expected to go into mass production in the third quarter of 2025, with an expected shipment volume of 150,000 to 200,000 units, mainly upgraded with a processor from M2 to M5, other specifications remain unchanged. This product will continue to be positioned as a niche product, aimed at maintaining market share, developing the ecosystem, digesting component inventory, and exploring XR headset applications.
The more disruptive Vision Air plan is set to start mass production in the third quarter of 2027, featuring a brand new design that significantly reduces the weight by over 40% compared to Vision Pro. This product will be equipped with Apple's latest flagship iPhone processor, achieving weight reduction by replacing glass with plastic, extensively using magnesium Alloy, and decreasing the number of sensors, with pricing expected to be significantly lower than that of Vision Pro.
The newly designed Vision Pro second generation is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2028, adopting a completely new design that significantly reduces weight and lowers prices, powered by a Mac-level processor.
Apple's Smart Glasses roadmap: Ray-Ban style products as a new engine for growth.
Ming-Chi Kuo believes that products similar to Ray-Ban in the Smart Glasses product line are seen as the category with the highest growth potential in the near term. This product is planned to start mass production in the second quarter of 2027, with expected shipments reaching 3 million to 5 million units or more in 2027. This Smart Glass will offer various frame and lens material options, with a user interface supporting voice control and gesture recognition. The product will not have a display function, and its core features will include audio playback, a camera, video recording, and AI environmental awareness.
Ming-Chi Kuo believes that such devices are likely to replace some of the camera functions of TWS earbuds and Smart Phones, being the product category with the highest growth potential in the Smart Glasses field in the near term. It is expected that global shipments of such products from all brands will exceed 10 million units by 2027.
More advanced XR glasses are planned for mass production in the second half of 2028, supporting voice control and gesture recognition, using LCoS along with waveguide display technology, supporting color display. AI functions are crucial for the success of this product. Additionally, a variant of the XR glasses is under development, but its production timeline is later and visibility is lower.
Display accessory projects have encountered setbacks.
Ming-Chi Kuo also revealed previously undisclosed project details. The display accessory product originally planned for mass production in the second quarter of 2026 has been paused since the fourth quarter of 2024, and is currently under review for repositioning and specification adjustments, with a possible project restart.
This accessory retrieves display content from Apple devices (such as iPhone) through a wired connection and utilizes Birdbath optical technology, with electrochromic dimming being an additional key selling point. The reason for the suspension of the project is its lack of competitiveness, such as its weight of 120-130 grams, which far exceeds competitors' weights of under 100 grams.
Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Apple's competitive advantage in the Vision series and Smart Phone glasses lies in its strong hardware development capabilities and ecosystem integration. However, the main challenges still lie in AI-driven operating systems and software.
Before Apple launches its Smart Phone glasses with display functions, multiple brands are expected to release similar products to capture the market. However, Ming-Chi Kuo believes that given the current technology and design still need improvement, these early products may remain niche in the next two years.
Editor/Rocky
