Overview of this week's key schedule.
The Trump "Big Beautiful" plan is expected to be passed by July 4.
On June 29, Sunday, the U.S. Senate passed an updated version of the "Big Beautiful Act" with a vote of 51 in favor and 49 against after intense negotiations.
To successfully pass the final vote, Senate Republicans will need to continue to "fine-tune" the bill to persuade all 50 party members who need to support it.
The deadline for the suspension of tariffs is approaching, and Trump's trade policy changes daily.
On April 2, U.S. President Trump announced the imposition of so-called 'reciprocal tariffs', which led to a plunge in the American Financial market. Under pressure from various parties, Trump announced on April 9 a 90-day suspension of high 'reciprocal tariffs' on some trading partners, and July 9 is the deadline for the U.S. government to suspend the so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' for 90 days. Although White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has repeatedly promised that several agreements are about to be reached, so far, the U.S. has only reached an agreement with the United Kingdom, and that agreement resembles a framework for ongoing negotiations rather than a final deal.
On Friday, June 27, as U.S. stocks approached the closing bell, media reports indicated that Trump stated at the White House that he might not adhere to the July 9 deadline for the reciprocal tariff suspension. When asked if the deadline was set, Trump replied, 'No, we do as we please. We can extend or shorten the deadline.' Subsequently, Trump posted on Social Media, announcing that he would 'immediately terminate all trade negotiations with Canada' due to issues surrounding the digital tax, thus concluding the chaos of the day, 'We will inform Canada within the next seven days of the tariffs they need to pay to do business with the United States.'
Henrietta Treyz from Veda Partners has provided her own bottom-line judgment for the coming weeks, stating that 'the best outcome investors and consumers can expect after July 9 is an extension of the current 10% tariff rate,' as Trump and his team acknowledge that they need more time, and a potential tariff hike may be postponed.
Greg Valliere from AGF Investments added, "It would be lucky if they could complete a few trades by July 4. Perhaps there will be a few more in August, but most of these trades might not be completed until deep autumn."
China's official manufacturing PMI for June, along with the Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs for June, will be announced.
Data released last month showed that the manufacturing PMI for May was 49.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's climate.
China Galaxy's macro analysis indicates that the May PMI reflects a warming of external demand and a rebound in production due to initial results from U.S.-China tariff negotiations, showcasing the resilience of China's economy. Meanwhile, the sluggish price index and the decrease in finished goods inventory reflect mismatches in supply and demand and insufficient expectations from businesses.
Looking ahead, SWHY analysis states that there is still a significant uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, and it is crucial to focus on the support effect of incremental fiscal policies on domestic demand. Service consumption and infrastructure investment may be the core driving points for stable fiscal growth, and their supportive role for domestic demand is expected to further strengthen.
On Thursday (July 4), the United States announced the non-farm employment report for June.
Economists generally expect that in June, non-farm employment will increase by 0.116 million people, a decrease from last month's 0.139 million, with the unemployment rate slightly rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%. Institutions analysis indicates that the recent rise in initial and continuing claims, coupled with accelerated deportations, suggests a high probability of weaker non-farm additions after June, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to enact preemptive interest rate cuts between September and December. Other labor market data, such as the JOLTs job openings data for May, will be released next Tuesday, and the ADP private employment report for June will be published next Wednesday.
The preliminary value of the U.S. June S&P Global PMI released this week was higher than expected. Although the composite index slightly retreated from 53.0 to 52.8, it remains well above the forecast value of 52.2. Price pressures in both the manufacturing and services sectors rose sharply, with manufacturing seeing particularly steep increases due to tariff reasons. More importantly, to cope with the increased workload, the rate of employment growth reached its highest level in over a year.
If next week's ISM data depicts a similar situation, investors might reduce their bets on interest rate cuts, especially if non-farm employment data continues to show a strong performance in the labor market. As the market gradually adapts to the idea that the Federal Reserve may remain patient before resuming the interest rate cut process, the US dollar may rebound.
Major oil-producing countries may continue to increase production in August.
On Sunday (July 6), OPEC+ will hold a meeting of its eight member countries to decide on the production policy for August.
Previously, OPEC+ issued a statement stating that it would increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, remaining consistent with the planned increases in May and June.
The market generally expects that OPEC+ may consider increasing daily production by another 411,000 barrels in August, continuing the acceleration of restoring idle capacity for the fourth consecutive month.
Led by Powell and Lagarde, the five central bank governors will discuss monetary policy.
The heads of the five major global central banks will publicly discuss monetary policy on Tuesday, with the impact of Trump's administration over the past five months on the global economy expected to be a focal topic.
The European Central Bank's Central Banking Forum will be held in Sintra, Portugal from June 30 to July 2, 2025. At that time, Federal Reserve Chair Powell and European Central Bank President Lagarde will join their counterparts from Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to discuss how to respond to the chain reactions from White House decisions.
From trade friction caused by tariffs to oil price fluctuations resulting from conflicts in the Middle East, central banks around the world are grappling with the critical question of how to handle these impacts. This high-level meeting, held at the European Central Bank's annual conference, will mark the first public discussion between Lagarde and Powell since the same event in 2024.
With tariffs and corporate earnings prospects compounded by U.S. debt issues, are significant fluctuations in U.S. stocks imminent?
U.S. stocks have experienced a wild six months, with the S&P 500 Index plunging 19% from its peak to its trough before swiftly recovering losses. Nevertheless, some of the world's largest Funds managers remain cautious about further chasing stock market gains in the second half of 2025, bracing for larger fluctuations.
For many Institutions investors, the recent rebound is still insufficient; they cite a series of risks facing the stock market. The approaching deadline for tariff agreements, mixed earnings prospects, and questions surrounding U.S. debt and the Federal Reserve's leadership have all become focal points in interviews with investment firms.
Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management LLC, stated: "Our outlook is more cautious than constructive. The outlook for the second half of the year is always determined by the starting point, and from a valuation and earnings growth perspective, that starting point is not very attractive."
Key financial events for the upcoming week on the Calendar.
June 30, Monday
Economic Data:
09:30 China's official Manufacturing PMI for June
21:45 US Chicago PMI for June
22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for June
Financial Events:
22:00 2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the outlook for the US economy.
The European Central Bank's Central Banking Forum will be held in Sintra, Portugal from June 30 to July 2.
Hong Kong Stock IPO:
Coconut water IFBH on its first trading day
First day of Cloud Voice's listing.
First day of TIDE Pharmaceutical's listing.
July 1, Tuesday.
Economic Data:
09:45 China June Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
16:00 Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI Final.
17:00 Eurozone June CPI Year-on-Year Preliminary.
17:00 Eurozone June CPI Month-on-Month Preliminary.
21:45 US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value.
22:00 US June ISM Manufacturing PMI.
22:00 US May JOLTs Job Openings (ten thousand).
Financial Events:
The Hong Kong SAR Establishment Day is a market holiday.
July 2, Wednesday.
Economic Data:
17:00 Eurozone May Unemployment Rate.
20:15 US June ADP Employment Change (ten thousand).
Financial Events:
01:00 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.
July 3rd, Thursday
Economic Data:
09:45 China June Caixin Services PMI
16:00 Eurozone June Final Services PMI
20:30 U.S. June Unemployment Rate
20:30 U.S. June Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls (10,000 people)
20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 28th (10,000 people)
20:30 U.S. May Trade Balance (100 million USD)
21:45 US June S&P Global Services PMI Final Value.
22:00 US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Financial Events:
01:00 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.
Due to American Independence Day, the NYSE will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th, and the Equity Index futures contracts under CME will conclude trading early at 01:15 Beijing time on the 4th.
Hong Kong Stock IPO:
Bokang Shiyun-B First Day of Listing.
July 4, Friday.
Economic Data:
17:00 Eurozone May PPI month-on-month.
Financial Events:
Due to American Independence Day, the NYSE will be closed for one day, and the Equity Index futures contracts under CME will conclude trading early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th.
Hong Kong Stock IPO:
Anjoy Foods Group First Day of Listing.
Kanzhun's first day of listing.
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