This public account “Uncle Cao's Consumption Upgrading Research”, consumer goods industry insight, covers education, textiles, clothing, cosmetics, e-commerce, retail, catering, travel, etc., retail, catering, travel, etc., to conduct interesting, meaningful, and attitudinal research. Please follow this public account to subscribe to the latest research report Special statement: The views, analysis and predictions of this public account only represent the author's personal opinions, do not represent any institutional position, and do not constitute investment suggestions for readers. The information published on this public account is for use only by professional investors as stipulated in the “Appropriateness Management Measures for Securities and Futures Investors”; non-professional investors invest without permission from this public account information, and I am not responsible for anyone's use of all or part of the content or any loss resulting therefrom. No one may distribute, copy, reprint or publish this report or any part of it in any form, or abort or modify the content of the public account in any way contrary to their wishes without their prior written permission. Investments are risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market.
occurrences
On April 16, 2020,PelaeaIt was announced that Cai Xukun has signed as a spokesperson for the new brand, and released the latest endorsement promotional video for the dual anti-serum: Cai Xukun debuted in the idol training competition in 2018, and recently became active again in the audience as a representative of the youth producer in the hit variety show “Youth Has You Season 2,” increasing exposure and topics. Since the official announcement of Cai Xukun as the new spokesperson on April 16, the number of pre-sales of Polarial Dual Control Essence at the Tmall flagship store has reached 30,000 pieces, and is still growing.
reviews
The fans of the new spokesperson are highly compatible with the target consumers of the company's new product, which focuses on “double resistance to oxygen sugar to resist the elderly”, helping to expand the influence of the company's main brand among young consumers: Cai Xukun was born in 1998 and currently has 29.02 millionWeiboFans, the reading volume of Supertalk has exceeded 160 billion, and it has a strong appeal among post-95 and post-00s young people. The company's new anti-aging essence, which focuses on the anti-aging needs of young people, is highly compatible with the new spokesperson's fan base. Currently, Dual-Resistant Essence is in the form of pre-sale at Tmall flagship stores. 4.1-4.23 is the deposit stage, and 4.24-4.26 is the final payment stage. For spokesperson fans, the company also launched a special 50,000-copy PROYA x KUN gift box with IKUN's confession letter postcard. Since its launch, it has attracted a lot of attention and formed a great influence among young people.
The pre-sale price of the new product “Double Anti-Aging Essence” is 229 yuan/30ml, mainly adding 4 kinds of anti-sugar anti-aging cutting-edge ingredients: the original price of the double anti-sugar essence product is 260 yuan/30ml, the current pre-sale price is 229 yuan/30ml, and the price after payment of the deposit and voucher is 209 yuan/30ml. Product ingredients include anti-oxidants — ergothione & astaxanthin, and sugar-suppressing ingredients — carnosine & Collrepair. Simultaneous efforts are being made on “anti-oxidation” and “anti-sugar” to help consumers achieve “anti-aging”. The company cooperates with the world's top pharmaceutical companies, cosmetic ingredient companies, etc., and added a variety of patented ingredients to achieve product safety and effectiveness.
From “Black Sea Salt Bubble Mask,” “Ruby Essence,” to today's “Dual Action Essence,” Polaire continues to use youthful marketing methods to communicate with target consumers to promote the rejuvenation and efficacy of its main brand: as the post-90s and post-00s become a new generation consumer group of cosmetics, and consumers' increasingly rich knowledge about the benefits of skincare ingredients, products with high technology, high efficiency, fun, and high value are becoming more and more popular. The company has actively adopted a “honest” big product strategy and a “surprising” explosive product strategy to continuously increase the exposure and appeal of young consumers, which not only helps enhance the brand image and influence in the minds of young people, but is also expected to help the brand grow rapidly in e-commerce channels over the medium to long term. The sales performance of the company's product matrix in e-commerce channels (currently accounting for more than 50% of the total channel) is worth continuing to track.
Investment advice
The company is a listed company with outstanding overall strength in strategy, R&D, marketing, and incentive mechanisms in the cosmetics industry. The COVID-19 pandemic may have an impact of 5%-10% on the company's 2020 performance. The short-term pandemic will not change the long-term outlook of the industry. We expect the company's net profit of 4.82, 6.37, and 803 million yuan respectively in 20-22, +23%, 32%, and 26% over the same period last year. The current market value corresponding to PE is 51, 38, and 30 times, respectively, maintaining the buying rating.
Risk warning
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected consumption, the development of new brands or categories falls short of expectations, increased market competition, and changes in channel structure.
body
On April 16, 2020, Polaire announced the signing of Cai Xukun as a spokesperson for the new brand, and released the latest endorsement promotional video for the dual anti-serum: Cai Xukun debuted in the C position of the idol practice competition in 2018. Recently, as a representative of the youth producer of “Youth Has You Season 2”, he is once again active in the audience, and the popularity and traffic have increased. Cai Xukun, who was born in 1998, currently has 29.02 million Weibo followers. He is ranked 7th in the March list in the Weibo Mainland Star Power List and 3rd in the 15th weekly list, with over 160 billion readers. Cai Xukun is in line with the company's rejuvenation strategy and helps Polaire to strongly occupy the youthful market.
The main product launched this time is a firming and translucent youth serum, which focuses on “double resistance to oxysugar to resist aging”. This product is in the form of pre-sale on the Tmall flagship store. The pre-sale period is from 4.1 00 to 4.23 at 10 p.m., and the final payment is made from 4.24 to 4.26. The original price of the product was 260 yuan/30ml, the pre-sale price was 229 yuan, and the purchase price after payment of the deposit and receipt of the voucher was 209 yuan. In addition, Polaire has also launched a special 50,000-copy PROYA x KUN gift box, designed in the form of a blind box, giving away 8 ml of double resistance essence and a random item surrounding the four thermos cups, necklaces, mirrors, and cosmetic bags, as well as a confession letter and postcard from IKUN.
Dual Anti-Aging Essence is mainly aimed at young consumers with “anti-aging” needs, and is highly compatible with the new spokesperson's fan base. With the post-90s and post-00s becoming a new generation consumer group for cosmetics, and consumers' increasingly rich knowledge about the utility of skincare ingredients, products with high technology, high efficiency, fun, and high value are becoming more and more popular, and are also an important direction for brand-side product innovation. As early as July of last year, Polaire created the “Black Sea Salt Bubble Mask” super product, and in February of this year, it launched the “Ruby Essence” product with stronger product power and a sense of technology. Through the “honest” big product strategy and the “surprising” explosive product strategy, Pléal has increased its exposure and appeal to young consumers, increasing the brand's popularity among young people. The launch of Dual Resistance Essence is a strong advance in Polaire's rejuvenation strategy, which is expected to convert more new customers through celebrity advertising effects.
In November of last year, Polaire and Spanish anti-aging cosmetics group PRIMA-DERM established a joint venture to begin international cooperation on the R&D side. Ruby Essence, which was launched in February of this year, is the first time that the company has applied the core anti-aging ingredient “six peptides” owned by the Spanish Group to its main brand products. It is the beginning of customized development of international ingredients & formulations. This essence mainly contains three core ingredients: 1% of the exclusively patented supramolecular vitamin A alcohol, 20% hexapeptide, and 20% of the triple rare seaweed extract, focusing on “anti-aging”. Currently, the price of the Tmall flagship store after receiving a voucher plus a giveaway is 229 yuan/45ml. This month (as of April 16), Ruby Essence achieved monthly sales of 2,772 pieces.
The bi-resistant essence, which also has the effect of “anti-aging”, is slightly higher than ruby extract in terms of unit price. It mainly contains 4 cutting-edge ingredients in terms of ingredients, including anti-oxidants — ergothione and astaxanthin, and sugar-suppressing ingredients — carnosine and Collrepair. Simultaneous efforts are being made on “anti-oxidation” and “anti-sugar” to help consumers achieve “anti-aging”. The company cooperated with the world's top pharmaceutical companies and cosmetic ingredient companies, etc., and added Colrepair, an exclusive patented ingredient of BAST, a world-renowned cosmetic ingredient production base, to achieve product safety and effectiveness. Since the announcement of the official spokesperson for Dual Fight Essence today, the number of pre-sales is close to 30,000, and is still growing.
From “Black Sea Salt Bubble Mask,” “Ruby Essence,” to today's “Dual Resistance Essence,” Polar continues to use youthful marketing methods to communicate with target consumers and promote the rejuvenation and efficacy strategy of its main brand. As the post-90s and post-00s have become a new generation consumer group for cosmetics, and consumers' knowledge about the benefits of skincare ingredients is becoming more and more popular, products with high technology, high efficiency, fun, and high value are becoming more and more popular. The company has actively adopted a “honest” big product strategy and a “surprising” explosive product strategy to continuously increase the exposure and appeal of young consumers, which not only helps enhance the brand image and influence in the minds of young people, but is also expected to help the brand grow rapidly in e-commerce channels over the medium to long term. The sales performance of the company's product matrix in e-commerce channels (currently accounting for more than 50% of the total channel) is worth continuing to track.
Investment advice
The company is a listed company with outstanding overall strength in strategy, R&D, marketing, and incentive mechanisms in the cosmetics industry. The COVID-19 pandemic may have an impact of 5%-10% on the company's 2020 performance. The short-term pandemic will not change the long-term outlook of the industry. We expect the company's net profit of 4.82, 6.37, and 803 million yuan respectively in 20-22, +23%, 32%, and 26% over the same period last year. The current market value corresponding to PE is 51, 38, and 30 times, respectively, maintaining the buying rating.
Risk warning
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected consumption, the development of new brands or categories falls short of expectations, increased market competition, and changes in channel structure.
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[Guojin Trading Company] Wu Jincao's team
Wu Jincao: Head of Guojin Trading's Social Service & Textile and Garment Industry Research Team. In-depth coverage of research and education, textiles and clothing, cosmetics, e-commerce, catering, tourism and other fields. Good at consumer structure & consumer psychology & consumption big data research. Master's degree from Shanghai Jiao Tong University/Bachelor's degree from Xi'an Jiaotong University.
Zheng Huilin: Research Fellow of Guojin Trading's Social Service & Textile and Apparel Team. The main research direction is the education & e-commerce industry, in-depth research on the education industry, master's degree from the University of Hong Kong/undergraduate degree at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
Ji Yunan: Research Fellow of Guojin Trading's Social Service & Textile and Apparel Team. The main research direction is textile, clothing & cosmetics & jewelry & e-commerce industries, in-depth research on the clothing & cosmetics brand retail industry, master's degree from Shanghai Jiao Tong University/undergraduate degree from Fudan University.
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