The situation in the Middle East has turned 180 degrees! Trump suddenly unilaterally announced that Israel and Iran have completely reached an agreement, achieving a "complete ceasefire," leading to another sell-off of Crude Oil Product and Gold.
On Tuesday, early in the Asian market, U.S. President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had fully reached an agreement to achieve a complete ceasefire.
After a strong opening, Crude Oil turned to decline upon hearing the news. As of the time of writing, it has fallen sharply by 3%, dropping below $65 a barrel, with international oil prices having plummeted by 9% overnight! Meanwhile, spot Gold has dropped below $3360 an ounce, decreasing by 0.26% for the day.
U.S. stock index futures continued to rebound in early trading, with the S&P 500 Index futures rising by 0.5% and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.6%.$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Standing at $106,000 per unit, increasing by 4.99% for the day.
Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel and Iran had fully reached an agreement for a complete and thorough ceasefire. (In about six hours from now, as Israel and Iran have already finished and completed their ongoing final tasks!) After 12 hours, the war will be considered over. Iran will initiate the ceasefire first, followed by Israel starting the ceasefire after the 12-hour mark, and in 24 hours, the world will pay tribute to the official end of this 12-day war. During each ceasefire period, both sides will maintain peace and respect.
Iran and Israel did not immediately comment on Trump's statement. Vice President Vance said that the President had been "constantly making calls" on Monday, aiming to reach an agreement.
At the same time as Trump announced this news, Iranian media reported strong explosions in Tehran and several other cities. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran does not seek to escalate tensions but is prepared to respond to any further aggression from the United States.
After Trump announced the ceasefire, Vance said in an interview with Fox News that the bombings over the weekend had achieved their purpose. Vance stated, "We know they cannot produce nuclear weapons," and added that Iran's current stock of enriched uranium has been "buried" by this attack. "If Iran tries to manufacture nuclear weapons recklessly in the future, they will have to face a very, very powerful US military."
Some Gulf Arab neighbors of Qatar, including Bahrain and the UAE where the US Navy base is located, also closed their airspace later on Monday as a precaution. All these countries announced the reopening of their airspace within hours. Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia issued statements condemning Iran's attacks.
Geopolitical experts, including former US National Deputy Intelligence Officer for the Near East Jonathan Panikoff, believe that the advance notice of retaliation on Monday indicates that the Iranian regime acknowledges its desire to ease tensions while demonstrating apparent military strength to regain face domestically.
Earlier, Trump posted on social media after the Iranian actions, thanking the Islamic Republic for "notifying us in advance" and encouraging the country and its main regional enemy, Israel, to pursue "peace and harmony."
Before the escalation of tensions this month, negotiating representatives from the US and Iran had held multiple rounds of talks aimed at reaching a new agreement to restrict Iran's nuclear program, which would replace the 2015 agreement that Trump abandoned during his first term. Since then, Trump has alternated between military threats and hints at restarting diplomacy.
On Monday, Israel attacked targets including the airport and the internal security headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and launched a new round of attacks on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility. Iran also responded with missile strikes. Tehran stated that it would not rejoin negotiations while under attack.
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