The liquor stocks have risen, with Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry reaching a price limit, Anhui Golden Seed Winery and Anhui Yingjia Distillery rising more than 5%, and the Penghua CSI Alcoholic Drink ETF increasing over 2.3%. The Yinhua Food ETF, Huashan Food & Beverage ETF, Food & Beverage ETF Tianhong, China Merchants Food & Beverage ETF, Huaxia Food & Beverage ETF, and Huabao Food ETF have each increased by more than 1%.
This month, the Penghua CSI Alcoholic Drink ETF, Food ETF, and Food & Beverage ETF have fallen more than 5%, with some funds buying at the bottom. Among them, the Penghua CSI Alcoholic Drink ETF has attracted capital in contrast, totaling 2.083 billion yuan.
Research Reports from China International Capital Corporation believe that the current demand for liquor has reached a historical bottom with limited downside risk. Policy relaxation provides a foundation for consumption recovery, and more supporting policies are expected to help stabilize and rebound liquor demand gradually. In the future, liquor demand may slightly rise at a slow rate; from the consumption scenario perspective, short-term mass demand is relatively rigid, and under the low baseline during the same period, banquet demand is expected to show some performance; in the medium term, policy stimuli are likely to stabilize high-end liquor demand. Annual liquor performance may exhibit an initial decline followed by an increase supported by low base effects in the third and fourth quarters.
For the Food & Beverage Sector, Ping An Securities expects that the liquor market will still be in an adjustment phase in Q2, anticipating future improvements. It focuses on three main lines regarding the symbols: first, the high-end liquor with relatively resilient demand; second, the mid-range liquor with continuous national expansion; and third, real estate liquor situated in the expanding price range. Mass products are showing structural prosperity, with old consumption revitalizing with new vitality. Currently, in the mass product field, structural prosperity clues are becoming clearer, with generational willingness and spending intentions diversifying, leading to sluggish recovery in traditional consumption, thus generating new consumer categories that satisfy emotional value and health needs. Companies can effectively stimulate consumption potential through deep insights into consumer demands, continuously innovating in products, channels, and marketing. There is a bullish outlook for investment opportunities in leisure snacks, beverages, and other tracks.
Donghai Securities pointed out that since May, many regions have actively implemented "prohibition on alcohol" regulations, with documents targeting time, scenarios, and other aspects being issued and strictly enforced. This has heightened market concerns about liquor. In the long run, new policies will promote transformation and upgrading of the liquor industry, satisfying a more diverse consumption demand through quality innovation. The liquor sector's valuation is at a bottom range, with low fundamental expectations, and the sector after rapid decline holds more configuration value. Competition in the liquor industry is intensifying, and the trend of differentiation and concentration is unchanged. Leading liquor enterprises continuously expand their market share amid brand barriers and strategic upgrades, and it's recommended to focus on high-end liquor and regional leaders.
New consumption is still in a prosperous trend, emphasizing high growth opportunities in segmented sectors. (1) Snacks: The snack sector demonstrates high prosperity and growth potential, strong categories, and new channels catalyzing market sentiment. Among them, the konjac category is developing well, possessing health attributes while ensuring a great taste experience, favored by consumers, with product volume driving rapid industry growth. Other categories such as quail eggs contain high protein, vitamins, and other nutrients, showing remarkable sales performance. (2) Catering Supply Chain: Under the stimulus of policies such as consumption vouchers, catering scenarios are expected to warm up, with the catering supply chain being the core beneficiary sector. In the long run, the industry is a rare growth track; on one hand, the "three high" pain points of catering enterprises (high labor, high raw material costs, and high rents) are becoming increasingly prominent, and the demand for cost control is strong; on the other hand, compared to mature markets, the chain rate in our country still has significant room for improvement. (3) Dairy Product: The supply and demand pattern of raw milk is gradually improving, waiting for the cycle turning point to arrive.
