China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that in the second half of 2025, driven by the trend of a weak dollar, supportive policies in the Capital Markets, and an overall improvement in the liquidity environment, the A-share market's fluctuation center is expected to gradually rise, gathering momentum for a takeoff.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that in the second half of 2025, driven by the weak U.S. dollar trend, support from Capital Markets policies, and an overall improvement in liquidity, the A-share market's fluctuation center is expected to gradually shift upwards, gaining momentum. The key to market growth lies in: fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts in China and the U.S., improvement in deflation, and development of XINXINGCHANYE. It is recommended to continue using dividend assets as the core underlying investment, actively participating in investment opportunities represented by "New Intelligent Medicines." Key areas of focus include: innovative drugs, consumer services (beauty, pets, retail, social services), AI (AI Agents, AI applications), humanoid robots, banks, non-banks, transportation, utilities, and Nonferrous Metals.
The main viewpoints of China Securities Co.,Ltd. are as follows;
A-share market analysis for the second half of the year: center moving upwards, gaining momentum. The A-share market is expected to fluctuate initially and then rise in the second half of the year. Expectations for the fundamentals limit the market's potential for a substantial short-term surge, but the certainty of a weak U.S. dollar trend, support from Capital Markets policies, and an overall improvement in liquidity in the second half of the year are likely to promote a continued upward shift in the A-share fluctuation center, while unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, implementations of domestic incremental policies, and development of XINXINGCHANYE are expected to become key catalysts for upward movement. Key areas to watch for upward movement: fiscal incremental policies, synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the U.S., and a reversal of the deflation trend; the next Deepseek moment in the Technology sector, progress in innovative drugs, and improvement in the new consumption economy.
New tracks are the key to victory: Current macro environment: liquidity easing + weak macro demand combination, shares many similarities with the peak investment period of tracks in 2020-2021. Before the macro economy achieves a comprehensive recovery, structurally prosperous new track directions may become the most critical investment winning factor. Within new track investments, can active equity outperform passive investments?
The advantages of active equity include: 1) From an industrial perspective, new track technologies iterate quickly, and the variety of technological routes is suitable for proactive equity foresight. 2) From a market perspective, new track companies have higher business complexity, making the Market Cap indicators insufficient to reflect the company's quality. 3) From an investment perspective, active equity can uncover invisible champions not included in the Index, avoiding outdated companies and flexibly adjusting positions to quickly respond to technological or policy changes. 4) From a fund perspective, active equity is expected to generate positive feedback in excess returns.
Dividend assets serve as the foundation, embracing the new track of "New Intelligent Medicines." Continue to be optimistic about the configuration strategy with dividend assets as the core underlying type, while actively embracing new tracks like "New Intelligent Medicines": new consumption (beauty care, pet food, jewelry, trendy toys, new tea beverages, etc.), humanoid robots (planetary rolling screw, six-dimensional force sensor, dexterous hands, Harmonic Drive, and other key components), artificial intelligence (AI computing power, AI Agents, AI applications, smart driving, etc.), and innovative drugs (overseas BD, pharmaceuticals, CXO, etc.).
Risk warning: (1) The effectiveness of domestic demand support policies is lower than expected. (2) The risk of the United States imposing additional tariffs on China. (3) Fluctuations in the U.S. stock market exceed expectations.
