Impossible assumptions lead to high-risk behavior that changes the environment and drives it to happen.

-Feng Liu

Who is Feng Liu? A legendary investor from retail to star fund manager, whose performance has been substantially ahead of the market for many years, is regarded as a god in the A-share market, and no one dares to say no.

Who am I? A super retail investor, super small, nobody, usually a little wishful thinking. I have no interest in so-called celebrities because they don't give me money.We often admire the strong, but we do not learn the necessary knowledge and actions to improve our situation from the realm and excellence of our predecessors. we further distance ourselves from the praise of nothingness, and this encounter with excellence is harmful to life.

I don't write this article because I admire Feng Liu. In fact, I don't like this person very much for two reasons. One is that he often says that he is stupid and then throws a super achievement with his backhand. After thinking about it, I find that he is actually very good. One reason is that investing is originally a very simple thing, but I don't know what the structure of his brain circuit is. Success is very complicated in a series of inexplicable terms. I thought at that time that either this person could not understand the investment, or he was pretending to play tricks, and according to his own simple investment principles, he would not invest in himself.

Later, I realized that the natural facts are objective, but everyone's understanding of the world is unique and has something to do with his own experience. Maybe that's what he thinks and expresses in his own unique language. I'm such a person, too. So I understand. However, this kind of thinking is very different from the conventional logic, resulting in the feeling that the reader is "very powerful, but does not understand" or "knows, but there is no law", so I turn in the middle of the article and translate it according to my understanding.

As a matter of fact, it is still a bit rash to do this translation. I have never paid attention to and studied Feng Liu. I have only read the relevant articles sporadically, but I feel that I can understand it at a glance, which is also related to my experience. I use Taleb's black swan thought to interpret Feng Liu very smoothly. I think my understanding as a visionary is also valuable.

Feng Liu's investment system is summarized in one sentence: under the philosophy of falsificationism, based on the consideration of risk and return, the optimal decision under the condition of insufficient information. Yes, it's that simple.

The core of this trading system:

1. People's subjective cognition of the objective world is relative, and the world is absolutely unknown.

2. Risk and return are the basic points of thinking, and everything else is a comment on both.

3. The risk of investment is asymmetric, pursuing the expected return of low risk and high return under extreme Stein; 4, not the highest return, but only the optimal return.

5. We live in a world of probability

6. Investment is a decision game based on probability.

7. Pursue the final thought of small loss and big victory

Such a set of ideas is actually very simple, but different from the normal mode of thinking, ordinary people look unaccustomed, difficult to understand. I will start my translation process from three aspects: stock selection, trading decision and investment mentality.

In the process of reading, you can listen to this zither to relax and savor it.

First, market cognition

1. Distinguish and grasp the knowable or unknowable market. At the top or bottom of the market, it is relatively easy to recognize or grasp, other market opportunities, it is difficult to grasp.

Interpretation: the value determines the price, and the top and low of the market refer to the area where there is a great deviation between the two. The greater the deviation between the two, the smaller the uncertainty of the price trend, and the stronger the power to return to the reasonable range of value. On the contrary, the more reasonable the relationship between price and value is, the more random the price changes. At this time, the income value part of the investment may be easy to achieve, the market part is difficult to grasp, and it is difficult for investors to obtain excess returns.

There are few investment opportunities for investors in the equilibrium state, and the profits of stocks mainly rely on the extreme state, which is based on the deviation between price and value.

2. The positioning of the weak system, that is, assuming that they are at the worst level in the market in terms of information acquisition, depth of understanding, time and energy, emotional control, network resources, etc., and can only rely on time, odds and common sense.

Interpretation: the weak system is not weak, it is just a way of thinking, thinking that they can only obtain limited, local, and can not guarantee the right information, and the strong system thinks that the world is cognizable, even if it can never be correct in an absolute sense, but in local areas, relatively correct cognition can be obtained in specific stocks and time.

For example, there are two people in the room, a man and a woman, ask A's gender, the strong system asks A directly, are you a man or a woman, and the weak system asks B whether you are a man or a woman? in essence, these are two modes of thinking, based on the way you perceive the world, no matter whether you are strong or weak.

The so-called weak system is not to consider how much they can earn, but first to consider the risk point. when this risk is considered, it is a safe investment, and the strength is only the appearance, and the core is the risk and income point. when the risk is very small and the income is very large, he is transformed into a strong system, so I say that there are no strong and weak people in a mess, only risks and returns.

Odds, what are odds, is the rate of return after the expected event, this rate of return is an expected value, including risks and returns.

Let me give an example. For two investment projects, An and B have a success probability of 30%, a return of 1 million, a failure probability of 70%, a return of 500000, a success probability of 50%, an income of 1 million, a failure probability of 50% and a return of 0 yuan. we calculate that the expected returns of An and B are 650000 and 500000 respectively, obviously rational investors will choose A, but not B because of B's high probability of success, this expected return is the odds. It is a subjective judgment that includes the consideration of risks and benefits.

Why not do something when the risk is minimal and the return is great? This thing is most likely to happen in extreme cases, when extreme market perception is wrong, whether it is the difference between common sense and commonness, or strong logic, it is a specific branch of the decision tree based on the expected rate of return. I suggest that we should not talk about odds in the future. We will talk about risk, income and expectation management.

Our investment decision under such expectations is a significant value harvest, and the value itself is the bargaining chip of the transaction. To judge the change of the stock price on the basis of this and other factors, the attribute of the game is very strong. This is more or less the same as the analysis of the concentration of market stocks, capital flows, market hotspots and so on, but the elements of the analysis are different, and there are many factors and single-factor analysis.

3. The boundary of the ability circle is more important than the size of the ability circle.

Interpretation: unlike the strong system used in value investment, value investment must eliminate uncertainty through in-depth research. Value in Feng Liu's system is only one of the factors of decision-making, and he needs a comprehensive judgment, not a value judgment. it needs a judgment of the direction of movement of the price, not the consideration of the margin of safety.

Value investment emphasizes endogenous growth. Feng Liu's game idea decides to trade in the extreme state and avoid equilibrium, because the direction of price movement in the equilibrium state is unknown and the efficiency of investment is very low. Therefore, the boundary of the capacity circle is more important than the size of the capacity circle, because the capacity circle is large enough to have enough space to find speculative opportunities and operate.

Buffett will be furious at my explanation, and I don't know if Feng Liu agrees with my explanation.

4. After making excess profits in one cycle, many investors return the previous profits to the market in the next cycle because of their own expansion or neglect. The reason is that people tend to form a fully strengthened logic on their past successful investment strategies, which leads to a huge confirmation bias. Any evidence in the follow-up market that contradicts its logic will spontaneously contradict and block.

As everyone knows, there are many assumptions and boundary conditions that are difficult to observe behind any logic. During this cycle, your benefit may be based on the fact that certain assumptions are proved or falsified, and certain boundary conditions are fully revealed or hidden. In the next cycle, all the foundations are likely to change. Going through different cycles requires different cognition, psychology and choices to maintain flexibility.

Therefore, we must be in awe of the market. This awe is to realize that things are always changing and unexpected, and try to keep yourself in a protected state so that you don't know what to do when "black swans" fly all over the sky.

Interpretation: keep independent thinking, seek truth from facts, reduce risks through diversification, stop losses in time when your cognition is falsified, and do not confront realityBreak path dependenceEvery day is a new beginning.

5. Feng Liu said that he is an investor who neglects research and attaches importance to choice. The so-called "light research, heavy choice" is not the pursuit of seeing the points that others do not see in the research, or beyond the overall cognition of the market; but to synthesize the research results of others and their own, to do multiple choice questions and grasp the direction to make investment decisions.

Feng Liu usually lists all the things that others have studied well and feels reasonable (both good and bad), and then selects them. Combined with the logic of the reasons for ups and downs in history, consider whether the reasons for rising can be extended and whether the logic of falling can be resolved.

Put aside all the logic of bullish when falling, fully understand the logic of bearish, when you feel that the logic of bearish has been reflected, then think about the logic of bullish, prematurely thinking about the logic of bullish is prone to bias. Choosing to believe in the logic that is not reflected by the market, rather than the bias brought about by personal research, is Feng Liu's magic weapon to defeat the market. Therefore, Feng Liu did not surpass the market in research, but made the right choice at the right time.

Interpretation: Feng Liu is a market game theorist who judges the direction of stock price movement based on the consideration of risk and income. Stock speculation is a continuous decision-making process of buying and selling.

6. Most things can have different angles and understandings. When the negative is fully reflected, the positive interpretation can be carried out, even if it is not available for the time being, but when the negative is presented so significantly, the positive changes will come naturally.

Buying a good company at a reasonable price is an important aspect of value investment, but it is difficult to see through a company for more than three years, but the volatility of one-year valuation in the market is enough to offset three years of performance development. In other words, unless you have 5 to 10 years of insight, you can't talk about ignoring the market and looking at the enterprise.

Interpretation: the old normal problem, there is no new idea, the risk has been released, can only rise, or do price spread, this price difference can also be understood as a cycle. The key is to find enough data and logic to support this point, to find out whether there is an event-driven change in the stock price, and the core is to speculate and earn the difference in the stock price.

Although I don't want to say that the market is always right, even if it is wrong, you should pretend that it is right.

To argue, confront, and reason foolishly with the people who can determine your fate is my experience in the past when I read history. Right or wrong is determined by the strong, and others should only observe the factors that determine your strength and the opportunity to change it. Otherwise, it will be politically naive and pedantic.

Interpretation: seeking truth from facts is over.

8. I don't want you to be like me, because I come from a retail investor, and the results of retail research often rely on luck. You think the research is right, but in fact, you earn money from luck, and if you are unlucky, you will be miserable. Because most of the retail research is one-sided and easy to fall into prejudice, I don't do much research myself.

Interpretation: paradoxically, Feng Liu should no longer be a retail investor when he said this sentence. He has a lot of research data. I don't think much information is needed to do research. The core is to grasp the main logic and make a judgment of direction.

9. There is no truth in this world, and the truth we think is often a kind of prejudice or a kind of phased logic.

Interpretation: the truth exists objectively, but we can only know it relatively, not absolutely.

10. I think the market is always right, and when it is wrong, it is not the market. What is the market? Is my deal with you a market? No, the real market is diversified, and many participants exchange in it. This is the market. When the market is dominated by a point of view and most people think from one point of view, the market loses its diversity, and that is not the real market.

When the market is pluralistic, it is unpredictable, and when its principal contradiction is reduced enough to be recognized, it becomes easy to judge and determine, at this time it is not a stable state. So I think about the possibility of reversal in a state where it's easy to judge, because it's often unsustainable.

Interpretation: the effectiveness of the market is absolute, in large capacity (full trading, that is, good liquidity, price can reflect information), large-scale, long-term, transparent information, free trading is established. Note that the conditions for market efficiency are mentioned here, but in low-frequency trading, small-scale local markets, short-time, opaque information, transaction barriers (friction costs are particularly high). The efficiency of the market disappears, there is a pricing error, the equilibrium of value determines the price begins to go to the extreme, at this time there are trading opportunities. (transaction is specifically used here as a substitute for investment to express more clearly and accurately.)

Second, how to choose stocks

The main results are as follows: 1. The internal source of his success is the value investment based on four key words: simplicity, growth, reverse and game.

Interpretation: reverse and forward depend on the risk space, which can make money to do which, often do reverse because found that the market pricing errors, when found that forward strong development will actively participate in it, so the word reverse can be eliminated. There is no reverse, there is no forward, only a comprehensive consideration of risks and benefits, if you do not make money in reverse, but also insist on doing reverse is not a fool?

Growth is a parameter of value and one of the factors that Feng Liu considers market conditions, and its importance is very low. Simplicity is the basic starting point, complex logic is difficult to see through, various factors contain each other, it is difficult to judge the price trend, simple logic, strong enough, there is a lot of certainty.

In the game, in Feng Liu's operation, investment is a decision, and value is only one of the reference factors. his profit depends on the change of stock price. he knows that the market pursues value blindly, so he often takes value as the starting point. He does not believe in value, value is only the bargaining chip of the game, if the value of a stock is very large, the price is very low, but the market has a strong expectation. He believes that even at this price, he will not invest if he does not see the possibility of a change in cognitive expectations in the short term.

Investors do not have to be affectionate and insist on classifying others as value investments. they use value as a weapon to harvest you value investors.

This is the difference between herbivores and carnivores.

I stress again that Feng Liu is not a value investment. he often talks about value because there are too many fools who know that the market believes in value and will be led by the nose by the radish of value. you want to invest with value, and he wants to harvest with value. this kind of harvest can obtain excess returns, value is part of the tool to obtain excess returns, this tool is based on value as an important but not the only basis to measure market cognitive changes. Price changes under the conditions of cold and warm mood, mispricing and so on. I call this the cheetah model, which only makes money with changes in price, has no interest in owning equity, and harvests back and forth.

2. An important starting point for investing is that you see the future and believe in the future you see. But I do not believe that I can see the future, so it will be more based on odds, the market will show a variety of logic, when a logic is reflected, I choose to believe in logic that is not reflected by the market.

Interpretation: self-contradictory, not worth reading, take it as a counterexample, tell yourself that many talented people like to say muddle-headed words, readers do not have to force to find an explanation. Even in a world of uncertain probabilities, if you know nothing about the future, how do you make the odds? But also logic, there are several kinds of logic you think you are unknowable, how can you believe in the logic that does not exist? The future is not a white box, nor a black box, but a gray box. Even if it is a black box, people must make decisions that they think are rational based on expectations.

3. I like to do stocks with high attention, because of the high attention, I can know what you are thinking; for the votes with low attention, I don't know what you are thinking, so I have no way to choose. In history, my self-righteous research is basically wrong, and my choices are basically right.

Interpretation: the underlying logic of stock price change is value, and the direct force is the strength of the transaction. Feng Liu thinks that the world is unknowable, so he thinks that the research is not very important, and makes a choice in the extreme state based on the higher weight of the market factor.

4. I attach great importance to the logic of the dominant trend. When falling, I should put aside all the logic of being bullish and fully understand the logic of being bearish. When I feel that the logic of being bearish has been reflected, then think about the logic of bullish. The logic of bullish thinking prematurely is prone to bias.

Interpretation: agree

5. What is speculation? Some people say that it is silly to think about the price without value. I don't think it's right. It's suicide. There's no point in discussing it. Real speculation should be carried out on the basis of value, but not the money of fools, but the money of investors and seemingly smart money. It is through the full understanding of the value, it will be switched in different people or environments to benefit.

Interpretation: agree that value is an important factor in price change, and it is also the basis for judging whether the release of risk is over. The security cornerstone of our decision-making is to play games on this basis. What we earn is the money of stupid people who believe in value investment but do not have the ability to invest in value. As a harvester for value investment, it indirectly improves the level of the existing value investment groups in the market.

6. A friend said that it is a bear market now, and it can be cheaper by three or five points in one day. Why not wait and buy again. I said that is not my style, I am the heart is the action, I will not guess how much will fall, but I can accept it. Sure, you can get a 20% discount in hindsight, but does it matter? You can only see that this purchase is 20 points more expensive, but there are many times you will be 20% cheaper than those who are waiting for hesitation. it may be the same for a long time, but it can reduce your workload and waiting by 80%.

To find a better time is actually a kind of greed. People often ask me how to choose the time. I say that the best time is not to choose the time, as long as it is a price that I can accept.

Interpretation: stock trading is a comprehensive judgment after considering risks and returns under the action of value, emotion, logic and other factors. When the risk is released and the odds are reasonable, we can trade. We only pursue the optimal return, not the best return. The decision set formed by the long-term optimal decision guidance will produce a very good effect. If we take the best as the guide, we must pursue a certain point. It's difficult and it's hard to do it continuously.

III. Transaction decision-making

1. Feng Liu used to be anti-head thinking, like to do reverse on the consensus that can be changed, focusing on whether this consensus can be changed and where the change point is. Now, because the economy and enterprises are characterized by centralization and clarity, they feel that they can also move forward with the consensus that will not be changed or even strengthened, and focus on where the strengthening point of the consensus is and what is the evidence of strengthening.

In his view, he used to like to buy at the bottom of individual stocks after a long period of decline, but now he is more inclined to choose the bottom of the industry, but he does not mind whether the stock he bought is up or down before, that is, "copy the bottom of the industry and buy the best ticket." In the past, when buying at the bottom of individual stocks, they paid more attention to whether the risk was released, and now they try to find a point that is strong enough to cover up all ugliness, so as to reduce the error rate.

Interpretation: on the surface, this transformation is the transition from the weak system to the strong system, and its essence is still risk. If the risk of a stock has been fully reflected in the stock price, there is nothing to fall, and the situation is already the worst, but there is a lot of room for rise. and there is strong enough reasoning to support this change, you can buy it. On the other hand, a stock has risen a lot, but there is strong reasoning to support the stock price to continue to rise, you can also buy.

Regardless of the reverse direction, the core is to infer the changing direction of the stock price, which is based on the principle of minimum risk and maximum return.The gap between emotion, consensus and common sense (the deviation between the rabble cognition of the market group and the reality) and value are all factors in his decision-making, and finally get a judgment on the direction of the stock price movement. to put it simply, he is speculating and making a price difference.Value investors can make a lot of money even if they are unwilling to admit that speculation can make a lot of money, repeatedly labeling others as value investments.

2. The "positive" in the research is the logical style, which should be stable, not utilitarian, but the perspective should be flexible, it is "strange", we should constantly change the perspective to look at the problem, and then we should have the ability to excavate the change, which is the source of excess income.

Interpretation: each investor should have his own independent and stable trading system, but the specific operation should make adaptive changes in the method according to the actual situation.

IV. Investment mentality

1. Investment is the embodiment of cognitive ability. No matter to the company, industry, market, cycle, or reading the famous works of Buffett and Soros, everyone has different feedback results for the same information because of their own knowledge structure and cognitive preference.

Interpretation: cognition is the mapping of the objective world on the subjective consciousness, the objective is absolutely the same, but the relative projection is different, what everyone sees is different, and the same things are seen and heard because the subjective differences are also different. so there are no exactly the same investors in the world.

Even if the cognition of the two people is exactly the same, under the combined force of the six factors I summed up before, namely, profit expectation, investment duration, value judgment, capital cost, risk tolerance and strategic differences, there are differences in operation. Investors should ask themselves more, look at others and compare more, but they do not need to use other people's operations as criteria to judge their gains and losses.

2. The purity of thinking and action is advocated by me, and thinking from left to right is a kind of self-deception and comfort. Investment is the commanding height of finding value, and this "high" is enough to protect you from other distractions. It shows different subjectivity according to the level and vision of each person, but in extreme cases, inner satisfaction is the measure. Speculation is the evolution of investment, in theory, a good investor will also become a good speculator, and vice versa!

Interpretation: I agree. Independent thinking, seeking truth from facts is the most basic and powerful ideological weapon, the trend of the stock price is the result of the combination of many factors, but value is the most weighted factor, especially in the medium and long term. This means that we can seek sense of security in value, on the other hand, we can use the stock price to follow the value, beyond the market, and earn excess income.

The returns of investment and speculation are based on logical reasoning and are determined by the market itself.

"the most realistic difference between investors and speculators is their attitude towards changes in the stock market," said the smart investor. The main interest of speculators is to predict and profit from market fluctuations: the main interest of investors is to buy and hold the right securities at the right price. In fact, market volatility is important to investors because when there is a low price in the market, investors will make a rational decision to buy; when there is a high price in the market, investors will inevitably stop buying and it is possible to make a decision to sell. "

But doesn't investment also predict changes in stock prices under the guidance of value determining price? Just when you buy, you are ready not to sell, seeking a basic safety point, which is completely similar to the risk release required by speculation, and there is no difference between high and low.

3. Investors' deductions should not be full of calculations, let alone always emphasize the unilateral role of certain factors. Everything should be interpreted on both sides. We should choose to focus on thinking according to different stages. Strong thinking of danger and weak thinking can help us smooth greed and fear and achieve calm and independence.

Interpretation: after the risk analysis, the rest is the opportunity. Through the analysis of falsification, it is easier to get certainty, to win first and then to fight.Before each decision, you have to think about the possibilities that will cause my decision to fail. If I choose wrong, how much is my loss, and whether this loss can be borne, you can start trading when you have the answer to these three questions.

4. Loneliness is the beginning of wisdom

Interpretation: independent thinking, seeking truth from facts is a kind of ability, not a slogan or pursuit, is to exercise, but I can not remember this sentence is Feng Liu said or I said, in my previous collation of materials, this sentence seems to be my notes, can not remember clearly. Thinking independently does not mean loneliness, but it often leads to such a result.

5. I always assume that I am bound to make mistakes and that I can't seize the best kind of opportunities, so I give up being a top student and just want to keep myself alive.

If we say that sometimes there will be excess returns, it may only be a periodic accident. We happen to encounter the smart people in this market who are making mistakes. We should know that the market fluctuates greatly and the gains and losses are great. The so-called profit makes people lose their wits and lust for profit. In the face of great gains and losses, smart people may also lose their minds. Just as there are some very superficial scams in life that can succeed, the deceived often remorse himself afterwards and wonder how it could be so stupid at that time, because something held him back and made him lose his mind and nature.

So I will look for the risk points, the big gains and losses, and the time when I can scare smart people. I don't ask myself to be smart, because it's too difficult to make a good judgment. I just try not to be drawn by gains and losses and be an outsider.

No matter how good a company is, if there is no risk point, worry point, I seldom intervene. I want to take risks and uncertainties. I don't have the ability to earn money with intelligence and level, but I am willing to take risks. There are too many smart people and not many people willing to take risks.

Of course, the premise of taking the risk is that the risk is fully exposed and priced. I am willing to take the real risk, but will avoid the theoretical risk. When the risk has become a reality and everyone is worried, I will actively bear it. The theoretical risk is logically and theoretically possible, but people think that it will not happen for the time being.

Interpretation: market consensus is prone to rabble opinions, resulting in significant market pricing errors, keep calm, stay away from the market mood, grasp the main, basic, definite logic to find this deviation, participate in trading, and make money.

The known risk is not terrible, after the full release is the risk, the terrible is the unknown risk, the unknown risk occurs in the equilibrium state is more, the market does not form a strong consistent cognition, causing the risk not to be discovered, or not released, so there are more trading opportunities in extreme conditions.

6. My system is an odds priority system, not probability priority, probability priority system is concentrated investment, for example, in-depth research is probability priority, emphasizing the circle of ability, to see the next five or ten years. Odds priority is not about whether a single stock is right or wrong, but whether it follows its own system.

Of course, I will sometimes be very focused, because at the beginning of the purchase, it may just be a framework analysis, but in the process of holding, I may gradually understand and become an in-depth study. At this time, if there is a unified probability and odds, I will increase the concentration of the position, but because it is a fault-tolerant system, I always assume that I must be wrong, so I have a tendency to disperse.

When I am weak, I must be scattered, and I will concentrate when I feel strong. After a stock has been held for a long time, I may become strong. At this time, I can do the real reverse and exchange views, while the weak can only do false reverse.

Interpretation: this is an investment decision-making problem based on the expected value, that is, odds, taking into account risks and returns, whether it is strong or weak, forward or reverse is not important, the important thing is whether it can make money or not, a money-oriented model, is the odds model.

What needs to be pointed out here is that when we choose individual stocks, we make forward and adverse selection according to certainty (risk size). According to the cognitive depth and the reliability of this cognition, we think that we are weak or strong. May not be recognized by the market, you have to obediently admit defeat and start all over again. On the basis of this individual stock, we will consider dispersion and concentration, as well as the proportion of positions, which is not completely consistent with the choice of individual stocks, which is the thinking of the two dimensions of investment.

The risk is absolute, whether you think you are weak or strong, safety is relative, the cognition of individual stocks is basic, and if you are strong enough, you can concentrate, but it may be better to spread the risk on the basis of selecting individual stocks. Of course, the expectation of the best decision will be weakened, and it is gratifying that the best decision is often the best decision.

Spent a whole day collecting data, analyzing and summarizing, and gained a lot in this process. You are welcome to communicate with me.

7, the heart thinks the counterparty is right, the other party thinks it is not good, I also agree, I just look forward to the change, just because its risk is exposed, can not be hurt to wait for change, this is the weak system.

The strong system is that you say bad, but I think it is good, you think it is expensive, but I think it is cheap, this is the real reverse, tit-for-tat exchange of views, independent opinions to make big differences. On the other hand, the weak system has to avoid in the face of major differences between right and wrong, and it can only look for opportunities for change after reaching a consensus.

Interpretation: the weak system is to avoid the risk area, that is, equilibrium, when the market consistency causes the price to be fully reflected, whether it is up or down, and then observe whether this consistency can be changed. If it can be changed, join the reverse after the consistency is fully reflected in the price. If it is certain that consistency and common sense are compatible, then join in doing forward, anyway, it is to earn the price difference. The core point is how to judge this trend and improve the accuracy of your judgment.

8. Although it is not a big problem to buy too much from a linear projection from the perspective of ultra-long-term investment, it can completely destroy your investment career if you are wrong. We emphasize that buying cheap is not to improve returns, but to retain the right to amend, because excellence can be judged in the process, but greatness can only be summed up afterwards, it requires opportunity and some unexpected factors. The confirmation after the event is uncertain in advance, and we can only verify it through constant observation in the process, which requires a process of maintenance and correction, and the high price deprives you of the right to amend from the very beginning.

Interpretation: our understanding of the world is always relative, greatness is not born, but formed in the process of development, which requires us to be cautious and modest, leaving enough room for correction for possible mistakes.

9. "treat yourself as selfless, as compassionate, as wise, and as free."

If you treat yourself as someone else, you will not be drawn by your own needs, will not fall into gains and losses and desires, and watch your heart understand your real needs and ideas.

To regard others as ourselves is to ask us to jump out of our own subjectivity and limitations and think from the point of view of others why they did so, so that we can get rid of our own obsession and narrowness.

To treat others as others is to retain their own independence from outside influence. I understand you and fully understand you, but I do not follow you, pursue the market, and are not dominated by the illusion of change.

Think of yourself as yourself, accept your imperfections, let go of greed, forgive your mistakes, learn to reconcile with yourself, and find a relaxed and sustainable state. When you are uncomfortable, you feel tired, relaxed, and easy to blame yourself. these feelings will accumulate slowly, and in the end, either your will will break down, your body will break down, or your partner around you will collapse. These are all uncomfortable states.

So I have accepted my imperfections and possible failures, and I seldom have high self-demands.

Interpretation: very good, worthy of serious study and practice. My heart goes with the wind, without hindrance.

10. Many people will study my position, but what is disclosed in the quarterly report is only part of it. The public information is incomplete, so don't read it too much. There are some stocks that I may be optimistic about, but they will also reduce their holdings, because I operate in a high position, and I often have no money in my account, and sometimes I may need money temporarily because I have to invest in a stock, so in many cases, the increase or decrease of buying and selling is not entirely representative of the point of view.

Interpretation: thousands of people, my interpretation of Feng Liu is also what I see in my eyes, and what I think of must be insufficient.What I analyze may be a misunderstanding, but I have no choice but to rely on my own judgment. Even if Feng Liu himself tells me what he is, I don't believe it. The fact is considerable, but cognition is personalized subjective.As an investment, we must think independently, leave what is useful to our trading system through analysis, and let go of it.

The above is the interpretation of Monopoly. There are a thousand Hamlet gods in the hearts of a thousand readers. What is Feng Liu like in your heart?