Abstract

1、Global supply and demand value chain: China, the United States, Germany three major centers.At present, the degree of globalization has been greatly improved compared with the early stage, and the pattern of the global supply and demand industrial chain has also changed. China has replaced Japan as the regional center of Asia, forming a new pattern centered on China, the United States and Germany. However, compared with Japan before, China is relatively less dependent on the United States, has established close ties with more countries, and has more frequent contacts in the region.

2、The economy of the two major centers shut down: the upstream was hit hard.From the perspective of the supply chain, almost all the countries seriously affected by the epidemic are in the upper or middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain, and the upper reaches of the industrial chain may be hit hard; from the point of view of the demand chain, the countries seriously affected by the epidemic contribute more than 65% of the global terminal demand. Under the impact of the epidemic, the economy almost pressed the "pause button", and both sides of the supply and demand of the global industrial chain were greatly affected.

3、China's import industry chain: pay attention to the impact of science and technology.Although the participation in the international division of labor in most industries in China has been significantly improved, especially in the science and technology industry, most science and technology industries are still in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain and highly dependent on the upstream. China's dependence on imports from countries with serious outbreaks abroad is nearly 40%, especially on high-tech products. Once the upper reaches of the industrial chain shuts down, China's imports will also be affected.

Global supply and demand value chain: China, the United States and Germany

The degree of globalization has greatly deepened.Global exports of goods and services as a share of the economy rose sharply from 11.8 per cent in 1960 to 30.1 per cent of economic and trade globalization index compiled by KOF in 2018.

In terms of the output of the final product, there were three centers in the early global supply chain.They are Germany-centered "European factories", American-centered "North American factories" and Japan-centered "Asian factories". At that time, Japan was once known as the supply chain center of the Asia-Pacific region, and the United States, China, South Korea and many other Asian countries used Japan as a source of end demand.

With the deepening of China's reform and opening up policy, especially after China's accession to the WTO, China has risen rapidly and gradually replaced Japan as the center of the Asian supply chain.Current global shapeIt has become a new pattern with China, the United States and Germany as the supply chain center.According to Stefan Angrick (2019), China's export share of all kinds of products is higher than that of Japan except that the export share of goods and services with the highest added value is lower than that of Japan. Not only that, China has established closer trade ties with other central countries, as well as with almost all Asian countries.

If you consider simple global value chains (simple GVC) and complex global value chains (complex GVC), there is a similar trend.Simple global value chains mean that intermediate goods exported to trading partners are directly used for domestic production, such as Chinese steel exports to the United States for housing construction. The complex global value chain means that the exported intermediate goods are reprocessed into intermediate or final products by trading partners and then exported, such as chips exported from Japan to China, which are added to toys and then exported to the United States.

In addition, China's position in the global value chain is different from that of Japan at that time. China is relatively less dependent on the United States, and the number of countries with close ties with the United States is gradually decreasing in recent years, and more countries are turning to China.

From the perspective of global demand, China has gradually become one of the three major demand chain centers in the world.In the early days, only the United States and Germany were the centers of the global demand chain. Although many Asian countries are related to Japan, more Asian countries have closer ties with the United States. At present, China has basically established the status of the center of the Asian demand chain. In additionIn the three regions with China, the United States and Germany as the center, the links within the regions are closer, while the links between regions are weakened.

From a specific industry point of viewThe evolution of the industrial chain pattern is consistent with the overall trend, but there are some differences between different countries. For example, China is the world's largest textile supply chain center, while the United States is the world's largest service industry supply chain center.It is important to note, however, that while China also supplies service products to most Asian countries, many of the final products of the services sector rely heavily on intermediate goods from the United States.

2、Economic shutdown of two major centers: the upstream has been hit hard

From the perspective of supply chain, most of the countries with serious epidemic situation are located in the upper or middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain.Zhang Huiqing et al. (2018) divided the upper and lower reaches of the global industrial chain after considering the technical attributes of the products. at present, the European and American economies with serious epidemic situation mainly belong to the upper and middle reaches of the global supply chain. in particular, the United States, Germany and Japan are in the upper reaches of the global value chain, leading the global value chain, while China is in the middle and lower reaches or close to the middle and upper reaches. Therefore, the epidemic has led to a huge impact on the upper reaches of the global industrial chain, and it may be difficult to be left alone in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.

Specifically, the industrial chain of aerospace, optical medical, mechanical and electrical equipment and other industries may be subject to greater impact.More than 50% of the world's exports of aerospace equipment, optical medical equipment and mechanical equipment are contributed by the United States, Germany, China, Japan and South Korea, and more than 40% of the exports of electrical equipment, vehicles and plastic products are also contributed by these five countries. Under the influence of the epidemic, the industrial chain of these industries may suffer a greater impact.

Subdivide it again.More than 40% of the world's aerospace equipment exports are contributed by the United States, which is the highest in the world; optical medical equipment and plastic products exports are mainly contributed by the United States, Germany and China, all accounting for more than 10%; machinery and equipment exports are mainly contributed by China and Germany. China's contribution is close to 20%; electrical equipment exports are also mainly contributed by China, nearly 25%; and vehicles and parts exports are mainly contributed by Germany and Japan, accounting for 17% and 10% respectively.

From the perspective of demand chain, more than 65% of the global terminal demand will be affected.In terms of global economic stock, the United States accounts for 23.7% of the world's end demand, the highest in the world, followed by China with 13.0% of the end demand. If you include countries such as the European Union, where the epidemic is more serious, more than 65% of the global terminal demand has been affected.The global economy pressed the "pause button", which had a huge impact on both sides of the supply and demand of the industrial chain.

3、China's Import Industry chain: paying attention to the impact of Science and Technology

On the one hand, China's participation in the international division of labor has increased significantly in recent years, especially in science and technology industries.From the international division of labor participation index, China's electronic information industry participation is the highest, air transport and rubber and plastic products ranked second and third. And the international division of labor participation in scientific research and development, electronic information, electrical equipment, science and technology services and other industries have increased significantly compared with the early stage.This shows that the technical attributes contained in China's exports are significantly increasing, and China's position in the international division of labor has been significantly improved.

On the other hand, most of China's science and technology industry is in the middle and lower reaches of the international division of labor.The fields of primary commodities such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage industry and extractive industry in China are all in the upper reaches of the global industrial chain, while most of the high-tech related industries are in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. For example, the electronic information industry with the highest participation in the international division of labor, and the relatively high-tech industries such as electrical equipment, mechanical equipment, drug manufacturing and automobile manufacturing are all the same.

Therefore, China's overall scientific and technological strength is indeed improving, but from the stock point of view, high-tech-related industries still have a lot of room for progress in the global industrial chain.For example, in the field of high value-added high-tech products, China still has a strong dependence on the economies in the upper reaches of the industrial chain, such as the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea, and these products are very irreplaceable.

Under the influence of the epidemic, nearly 40% of China's imports may be more affected by the impact of the upstream industrial chain.Major economies such as Europe, the United States and Japan have all been affected by the epidemic, and China's import dependence on these countries is close to 40%. Nearly 70% of China's imports of cars, parts, aircraft and other products come from the United States, Germany, South Korea, Japan and other countries, and more than 50% of optical medical equipment, mechanical equipment and other imports also come from these countries.