Before waiting for the upcoming earnings season to be announced for us, we may be able to find a clue from the official first-quarter earnings expectations and earnings conference calls.

The 2019 earnings season has just ended, and all eyes are focused on the results of the first quarter of 2020, which is shrouded by the epidemic.

Many companies have withdrawn their previously issued guidance, and the US SEC recently said it would extend the deadline for listed companies to issue earnings reports to 45 days. Jay Clayton, chairman of SEC, said last week: "We are going to have an unusual earnings season. "

Before waiting for the upcoming earnings season to be announced for us, we may be able to find a clue from the official first-quarter earnings expectations and earnings conference calls.

● e-commerce

The impact on the offline real economy is self-evident, but the days of e-commerce may be equally uncertain. Logistics disruptions, supply chain breakdowns caused by difficulties in resuming work, and weakening of the demand chain caused by slowing consumer demand are all challenges for e-commerce.

$BABA (BABA.US) $After reporting better-than-expected results for the third quarter of fiscal 2020 on Feb. 13, it was decided to lower its forecast for the next quarter.

In the earnings call, BABA Chief Financial Officer Wu Wei said, "the impact of the epidemic on this quarter has two aspects, one is the direct impact of the epidemic, and the other is the support and funding projects given to businesses." On the whole, a significant slowdown will not be ruled out this quarter. Based on what we have seen in the 12 to 13 days since the beginning of February, it is speculated that the company's overall revenue growth rate will be negatively affected in the quarter to the end of March. In some businesses, such as China's retail market and local living services, quarterly revenue may even show negative growth. "

It is worth mentioning BABA's support policy for small and medium-sized enterprises. With the rapid global spread of the epidemic, China's export trade has been greatly affected. BABA launched the Chunlei Plan, a foreign trade enterprise support policy from channel to finance in early April.

$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $No clear financial data guidelines were also given during the conference call. "all industries in China have been affected by the epidemic," said David Liu, vice president of strategy. "the Spring Festival, which used to be an off-season for e-commerce, has had a greater negative impact this year due to employee delays and logistics problems. As far as Pinduoduo is concerned, sold-out products can not be replenished in time, and supplies are delayed because of logistics. The growth of our platform is very rapid, this impact is temporary, and we are still full of hope for the future. "

By comparison$JD.com (JD.US) $But it showed confidence: it turned losses into profits in the fourth quarter, and net income in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to grow by at least 10% compared with the same period in 2019. JD.com CFO Huang Xuande said at the earnings conference, "the profit margin will not be better than the last quarter, but if compared with some other e-commerce, our profit margin will be better." "

When logistics was paralyzed throughout the country during the epidemic, JD.com, relying on the self-built logistics distribution system, became one of the few platforms that could ensure that users could issue orders normally under the epidemic.

But as the domestic epidemic improves and both the temporarily suppressed consumer and supply side will be released, e-commerce may be able to slowly get back on track after its dismal first-quarter financial results.

● smart device

Smart device companies with production chains and markets around the world are more likely to dance in chains and be shackled by the epidemic. Global smartphone sales fell by more than 14% in February, and the recession will continue, according to a report by market research firm Counterpointresearch.

$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $At the end of January, revenue for the first quarter ended December 2019 hit an all-time high, and revenue for the second quarter to the end of March is expected to be between $63 billion and $67 billion, with a gross profit margin of between 38 and 39 per cent. Compared with revenue of $58 billion in the second quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to be between 8.6% and 15.5%, indicating that Apple Inc has a very positive attitude towards future expectations.

But the good times did not last long, as the global epidemic intensified, Apple Inc closed all stores outside the Greater China region. "due to weak demand in China, temporary shortages in supply chains based on global scope, slow factory resumption and disrupted sales, first-quarter revenue is expected to be lower than expected," he said. On March 23, Apple Inc's market capitalization fell below 1 trillion US dollars. The impact of the epidemic is slowly beginning to show.

IPhone sales, which account for more than half of total revenue, have been hit, and the launch of new models has been repeatedly delayed; coupled with the fact that the global supply chain has not yet been revitalized and retail stores are closed, I am afraid Apple Inc's performance will continue to decline as the epidemic continues.

Just launched a high-end strategy to the global layout.$XIAOMI Group-W (01810.HK) $Riveting full strength to take advantage of the victory to chase, only to encounter this huge obstacle in the way. XIAOMI said in the financial results released on March 31, "on the supply chain, we encountered temporary production disruptions in February and March due to the closure of Chinese factories, but now most of production has resumed. Capacity has rebounded to 80 to 90 per cent of normal levels. "overseas markets, such as Western Europe and India, which accounted for more than 40% of revenue in the fourth quarter, have now become the hardest hit areas of the epidemic, so overseas demand will be affected to a certain extent.

However, like Apple Inc, XIAOMI's ever-diversified Internet business has improved its ability to resist risks.

A few days ago, Samsung Electronics, which released preliminary results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2020, achieved both revenue and profit growth under the epidemic. The financial report showsSamsung Electronics (ADR) (SSNGY.US) $Revenue in the first quarter was 55 trillion won ($44.7 billion), up 5% from a year earlier, while operating profit was 6.4 trillion won ($5.2 billion), up 2.7% from a year earlier. In the financial results, Samsung Electronics remained stable in the first quarter and was not significantly affected by the epidemic. To a large extent, the demand for chips made up for the decline in sales of electronic products such as mobile phones. But the impact of the epidemic on South Korea and the world has been officially apparent since mid-March, and Samsung's second-quarter results may not be so good if it is not brought under control for a long time.

● travel service

After the tourism industry is pressed the pause button, the first to bear the brunt is the field of online travel services.

After the outbreak in early 2020,$TRIP COM GRP LTD (TCOM.US) $Cumulative withdrawal of tens of millions of orders, involving an amount of more than 31 billion yuan. In its results in mid-March, Trip.com estimated that net operating income in the first quarter of 2020 would fall 45% to 50% from a year earlier; excluding equity compensation fees, the operating loss in the first quarter of 2020 would be 1.75 billion to 1.85 billion yuan.

Sun Jie, CEO of Trip.com, said in a conference call that Trip.com 's revenue from hotel accommodation booking fell by 60% to 65% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period last year, transportation booking revenue dropped by 30% to 35% year on year, and revenue from group tours fell by 50% to 60%.

Tongcheng Yilong also said on its performance outlook for the next quarter that its net revenue would fall by 42% to 47% compared with the same period last year, but its adjusted profit may remain profitable.

Global "OTA" giant$Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG.US) $It has been announced that the first-quarter performance forecast has been withdrawn after the outbreak, which shows the impact of the tourism shutdown.

The lifelines of transportation, ticketing and hotel booking account for almost all of the travel company's revenue, and given the reality of the tourism shutdown in the first quarter, it is not surprising to give such dismal earnings expectations. Travel companies have to maintain low operating costs and rely on capital reserves to survive this disaster.

● telecommuting and online Education

Affected by the epidemic, a large number of telecommuting and online learning demand into the online platform, the number of users soared in a short period of time, the industry seems to be good.

$Zoom Video Communications Inc (ZM.US) $Earnings per share, adjusted for the first quarter of fiscal 2021, will rise from $199 million to $201 million, according to guidance released in early March. For the entire fiscal year 2021 and for the entire fiscal year 2021, Zoom expects adjusted earnings per share of 42 to 45 cents and revenue of 905 million to 915 million dollars.

As the explosion of telecommuting demand has boosted ZOOM's global online business, Zoom CEO Eric Yuan revealed in a blog post on April 1 that the company's daily active users reached 200m in March, a 20-fold increase in just over two months.

Zoom's first-quarter results should be bright. However, the recent outbreak of privacy security vulnerabilities, so that Zoom lost a lot of users, will have a lasting impact on the results of the second quarter.

Another area of concern is education, where the epidemic is good for online education, but also has a huge impact on offline education.

$TAL Education Group (TAL.US) $In early March, the company announced a downgrade of its Q4 revenue forecast for fiscal year 2020. Affected by the epidemic, the company said it would cut its revenue to $8.50-872 million, an increase of only 17% and 20% year-on-year. Compared with the Q3 revenue forecast of $9.591 to $980.9 million (up 32% on a year-on-year increase of 35%), it fell 15%, resulting in a loss of $100m. TAL Education Group pointed out that the lower-than-expected revenue was due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and TAL Education Group's preventive measures for its offline business.

It is not a unique instance, but has its counterpart,$New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU.US) $It also downgraded its revenue forecast for Q3 in fiscal 2020, which is expected to be about $9.02 to $933 million, up 13% from a year earlier. Previously, in the Q2 financial report for fiscal year 2020, New Oriental Education & Technology Group estimated that Q3 revenue for fiscal 2020 would be between US $9.83 and US $1.006 billion, an increase of 23% and 26% over the same period last year. New Oriental Education & Technology Group's revenue forecast has been cut by about $80 million, and revenue growth is expected to fall by nearly 10 per cent year-on-year.

As for the reasons for the downgrade of expectations, New Oriental Education & Technology Group and the good future both said that they were affected by the epidemic. TAL Education Group took precautions against offline business, and the loss was offset by an increase in student enrollment and related income in online courses this quarter. New Oriental Education & Technology Group said that this impact was greatly offset by the measures taken in the most recent quarter to effectively transfer offline classes to live classes in online small classes through the self-developed OMO system.

Although the popularity of online courses has promoted the strong growth of online education, the shutdown of offline education, which accounts for the majority of revenue, has also dealt a heavy blow to TAL Education Group and New Oriental Education & Technology Group. Whether the impact is offset or not, the damage to performance is undeniable. The online education of this epidemic is a rare exposure opportunity. After the domestic epidemic gradually entered the recovery period, the retention of large amount of traffic during the epidemic is also a problem for online education.

● medical treatment

Under the epidemic, medical-related industries have been greatly beneficial, whether it is medical device sales, or online consultation, pharmaceutical e-commerce are growing against the trend.

April 9th,$Fish Leap Medical (002223.SZ) $Issue a forecast for the first quarter of 2020. The net profit in the first quarter is expected to be 370 million-380 million yuan, an increase of 50% Mel 55% over the same period last year. During the epidemic, shipments of Yuyue Medical's non-invasive ventilators and other respiratory products, infrared temperature detection products such as temperature guns, and disinfection sensing and control products such as "Jiefu" hand sterilization increased significantly.

Alibaba Health Information Technology, with pharmaceutical e-commerce as the core, acted frequently in the first quarter: on February 12, BABA increased his stake in Alibaba Health Information Technology by about 861 million shares at a price of HK $9.38 per share, involving a capital of about HK $8.075 billion, acquired all shares in Ali JK ZNS Limited and expanded the layout of Tmall Pharmaceutical-related business. On March 16th, CEO changed coach, and Zhu Shunyan became the new CEO, executive director and chairman of the board of directors. In the latest development of the war on "epidemic" recently announced to the public, Alibaba Health Information Technology launched a comprehensive attack: the AI of the Dharma House entered the front line of fighting the epidemic; products such as epidemic science popularization and epidemic maps were launched one after another; Alibaba Health Information Technology provided "buying medicine without going out" service for chronically ill patients; and online health consultation platform for overseas Chinese on Alipay.

According to the mid-2019 report as of September 30$Alibaba Health Information Technology (00241.HK) $Revenue reached 4.117 billion, an increase of 119.13% over the same period last year. The amount of the loss fell sharply by 91.5% compared with last year, while the adjusted net profit soared more than 12 times. Facing the opportunity of this epidemic and relying on the strategic support of BABA, Alibaba Health Information Technology should take advantage of the opportunity to hand over a better performance data.

Under the Ping an Group$Ping An Healthcare And Technology (01833.HK) $According to the financial report of the last quarter, the number of visits to the platform reached 1.11 billion during the epidemic, the number of registered app users increased 10 times, and the average daily number of new users was 9 times.

Ping An Healthcare And Technology posted a net loss of 734 million yuan in 2019, but Bloomberg's consensus forecast is that the net loss will narrow to 615 million yuan in 2020, turn a loss into profit in 2021, and make a profit of 166 million yuan. UBS also predicts that Ping An Healthcare And Technology's core business, online healthcare, is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 80 per cent in 2020 as the cash flow rate increases and private doctors further promote it.

● digital entertainment

The "home economy" also benefits digital entertainment. When it comes to staying at home, the best way to ease anxiety is entertainment.

Sitting on the core resources in the fields of games, music, video, social, etc.$Tencent (00700.HK) $Benefit a lot, as the world's largest game company, Tencent is undoubtedly the biggest winner. According to the latest research report of Everbright Securities, the average daily DAU of Tencent's "Arena of Valor" during the Spring Festival in 2020 may be close to 129 million, and the average daily DAU in January may reach 9.2 billion yuan, which is just one of Tencent's games. At the same time, mobile games such as "Game for Peace" and "PUBG Mobile" are popular in domestic and foreign markets.

In addition, GF Securities Co., LTD. said that in the field of to B services, the epidemic suppresses consumption, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on Tencent's payment business, but it is also accelerating the digitization of merchants and brands, and the activities such as Mini Program, WeCom, and Tencent meetings have increased, bringing growth to Tencent Cloud's business.

However, Tencent's advertising business may come under pressure in the first quarter, which accounts for nearly 20 per cent of Tencent's overall income.

$Tencent Music (TME.US) $Executives also said in the earnings call that the epidemic had an impact on Tencent Music's revenue in the social entertainment section, which may slow down in the first quarter and is not expected to return to normal until the second half of the year.

NetEase, Inc, a fierce rival in the game market, is also very conservative.$NetEase, Inc (NTES.US) $CEO Ding Lei said at the earnings conference, "to be realistic, the number of players and the overall operation of the game in the first quarter are slightly better than the previous Spring Festival, but the Spring Festival itself is a very important season for games. "

As an Internet entertainment upstart, Bilibili Inc. attracted more attention after the success of the New Year's Day Gala in 2020. In fiscal year 2019, Bilibili Inc. 's total revenue reached 6.78 billion yuan, an increase of 64 percent over the same period last year, of which revenue in the fourth quarter rose 74 percent year-on-year to 2.01 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations for seven consecutive quarters. At the same time, Bilibili Inc. 's fourth-quarter operating loss was 419.9 million yuan, compared with 289 million yuan in the same period last year. The fourth-quarter net loss was 387 million yuan, compared with 191 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 102.9 percent.

In a teleconference$Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) $Chen Rui, chairman and CEO, pointed out that Bilibili Inc. 's business is more diversified, and the e-commerce business is obviously affected by the epidemic, while businesses such as games and fees paid by big members have increased because of the holidays, so the epidemic has little impact on Bilibili Inc. in the short term. In the financial report, Bilibili Inc. looked forward to the income in the first quarter of 2020, which is expected to reach 2.15 billion to 2.2 billion yuan. Bilibili Inc. 's total revenue in the first quarter of 2019 was 1.37 billion yuan, with a net loss of 195 million yuan.

Conclusion:

After the gunshot, there was no winner. In this epidemic sweeping the world, a few industries are positive, but many more can not escape the fate of declining performance. But the crisis is not the end, and through the turbulent first quarter, the Chinese market has taken the lead to regain its former vitality. In the coldest spring, hope is even more important.