Humanoid robots are on the rise, and the demand for Bearings is benefiting.
According to the Zhito Finance APP, Guotai Haitong released a Research Report stating that Bearings, as the core components of robot joints, are expected to drive significant growth in the Bearing market scale with the continuous development of the humanoid robot Industry. At the same time, against the backdrop of accelerated domestic substitution, relevant companies engaged in humanoid robot Bearings and their supporting core processing equipment, such as grinding machine companies, are likely to welcome new development opportunities.
The main points of Guotai Junan are as follows:
Humanoid robots are on the rise, and the demand for Bearings is benefiting.
The rise of the humanoid robot industry brings new opportunities to the Bearing market, as Bearings play an important role in key components such as Harmonic Drives, lead screws, and motors, with a wide variety of suitable Bearing types. Harmonic Drives typically use one crossed roller Bearing and one flexible Bearing; lead screw Bearings vary in type based on mounting methods, with angular contact ball Bearings commonly used on the fixed side and deep groove ball Bearings on the supporting side; motors commonly use ball Bearings, roller Bearings, and cone roller Bearings, while the hollow cup motors of humanoid robot dexterous hands often use ball Bearings and sliding Bearings. For example, the Tesla humanoid robot Optimus has a high demand for Bearings of various types; if the shipment volume reaches 1 million units, the additional demand for Bearings is expected to exceed 3 billion yuan. As the humanoid robot industry develops, the potential demand for Bearings will be even higher. In addition, referring to the patents of Zhiyuan and Xiaomi robots, the linear joint connections at the ankle and wrist may require more sliding (joint) Bearings, which is expected to drive an increase in the demand for sliding Bearings.
The market prospects are broad, with accelerated domestic substitution.
As a core basic component of equipment manufacturing, Bearings are widely used in various fields. In terms of type, rolling Bearings dominate the market due to their advantages such as low friction coefficients, while sliding Bearings excel in load-bearing capacity. The global Bearing market is large and growing; according to the Sihan Industry Research Institute's WeChat public account, the global market size reached 121.3 billion dollars in 2021 and is expected to exceed 243.03 billion dollars by 2030. China is one of the major manufacturing locations globally; according to the China Bearing Industry Association, in 2023, China's Bearing industry achieved a revenue of 218 billion yuan, with a production of 20.2 billion sets of Bearings, indicating enormous market potential.
Currently, overseas leading companies such as SKF and Schaeffler hold a significant advantage in the global Bearing market. According to the SKF Annual Report 2024, the top six manufacturers account for about 55% of the global rolling Bearing market. However, domestic companies are actively catching up, making continuous progress in technology development and market share. Although there is still a gap between China's Bearing industry in terms of technology level and product quality compared to international advanced levels, breakthroughs have been achieved in certain fields. The process of domestic substitution is accelerating, bringing development opportunities for related domestic companies.
The processing technology is complex, and breakthroughs in grinding equipment are needed.
The processing technology for Bearings is complex, involving multiple processes such as blanking, forging, and heat treatment. Each link significantly affects the precision, lifespan, and performance of the Bearing. Challenges in processing include precision control of the raceway, selection and processing of high-end Bearing materials, etc. Grinding machines are the main processing equipment for Bearings, and grinding processes account for a high proportion of labor, equipment, and cost in Bearing production, with a larger proportion for high-precision Bearings. However, the localization rate of grinding machines in China is below 50%, and high-end grinding machines rely on imports. Domestic companies still need breakthroughs in the field of high-end grinding machines.
Risk warning: Technological advances may fall short of expectations, competition may intensify, and raw material prices may fluctuate.
