This week's key agenda overview
The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held.
According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the spokesperson announced: At the invitation of the United Kingdom government, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the United Kingdom from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the U.S. side.
According to a statement made by the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce on May 12 regarding the joint statement of the China-U.S. Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to maintain close communication on their respective concerns in the economic and trade fields and to carry out further consultations. The Chinese representative is Vice Premier He Lifeng, and the U.S. representatives are Secretary of the Treasury Yellen and Trade Representative Tai. Both sides will regularly or irregularly take turns to conduct consultations in China or the United States, or in a third country agreed upon. If necessary, both sides can conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.
Can the court stop Trump's tariffs? The 'Big and Beautiful' bill will face a challenge in the Senate.
The U.S. appeals court may rule in the coming days on whether to permanently overturn the U.S. International Trade Court's decision to block Trump’s equivalent tariffs. The appeals court will hear opinions from both sides before June 9, but regardless of the outcome, the case may still be submitted to the Supreme Court, thereby delaying the final decision.
If the appeals court rules in favor of the Trump administration during this period, it will not change the status quo and the market impact will be minimal. However, if the court supports the lower court's ruling declaring the equivalent tariffs illegal, it may provide a limited boost to risk appetite.
In addition, the 'Big and Beautiful' bill strongly pushed by Trump is under review in the Senate. Wall Street is assessing how much stimulus this legislation will have on economic growth, but at the same time, there are concerns that the bill will further expand the U.S. fiscal deficit.
The economic data is coming in heavy, and the US May CPI might "detonate" the market, shattering dreams of interest rate cuts.
The US May CPI report released on Wednesday will test the market's optimistic feelings toward interest rate cuts, as it may show a stagnation in the recent trend of declining inflation. Economists widely believe that May prices will start to reflect the impact of tariffs, with the May CPI expected to rise from 2.3% last month to 2.5% year-on-year, and core CPI expected to rise from 2.8% last month to 2.9%.
The May CPI report will also become one of the last important data points ahead of the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting. Jay Woods, Global Chief Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated: "If inflation data comes in more mild than expected under tariff concerns, this could also serve as a catalyst for pushing the market to test historical highs."
Analysts expect that the year-on-year annualized inflation rate of core commodities will peak in the early fall (4%-5%), slightly lower and delayed compared to predictions before the pause of the "equal tariffs" on May 8. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect that inflation in the service industry will remain suppressed: easing labor market shortages and a weak employment environment suggest that the growth of labor costs will further slow down. Housing inflation month-on-month may stabilize at 0.28%-0.30%, pushing the year-on-year growth rate down from the current 4.2% to 3.6% by spring next year.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month will be released on Thursday, which is also important for measuring potential price pressures. On Friday, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which includes consumers' inflation expectations, will be released. Any weak economic data could further strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, exacerbating the dollar's predicament.
As the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period before the June rate meeting, the "Quarterly Financial Accounts Report" for the US will be released on Friday.
Recently, Trump stated that he would urge Powell to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the US could significantly lower both long and short-term interest rates on maturing debts, and currently there is no inflation pressure; even if inflation resurges, it can be managed through rate hikes. He blamed Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which resulted in the loss of national wealth in the US and increased borrowing costs for the federal government. Trump also mentioned that the appointment of the next Federal Reserve chairman will be announced soon and that he has a fairly clear understanding of the candidates. He added that a good Federal Reserve chairman would lower interest rates.
On June 13, the Federal Reserve will release the "Quarterly Financial Accounts Report" for the US. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that a deeper understanding of the impact of policies in other countries on the US economy and financial markets is needed, especially the potential shock that severe swings in the dollar bring to US families and businesses. The Federal Reserve's latest report points out that economic activity in the US has slowed down over the past six weeks, hiring has decelerated, and consumers and businesses are worried about the price increases caused by tariffs.
The Federal Reserve is about to enter a quiet period ahead of its monetary policy meeting in mid-June, and officials will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged. The market also generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rates during this meeting, but traders have begun to bet on two 25 basis point rate cuts in the second half of the year.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released CPI and PPI data.
On June 9, the National Bureau of Statistics of China released the May CPI and PPI data. The data released last month showed that the CPI in April continued to decline year-on-year, but due to the rebound in food and travel service prices, it shifted from falling to rising month-on-month; the year-on-year decline in PPI expanded to 2.7%, mainly affected by international input factors and a decrease in domestic energy prices.
CICC Analysts stated that the Sino-U.S. tariff negotiations have greatly reduced the downward risk to exports, but the issue of insufficient demand remains prominent, and fiscal expansion to support domestic demand is still key to boosting prices; the PMI purchase and factory prices fell in April, which has not yet been reflected in the month-on-month PPI data, indicating that the month-on-month decline in PPI may widen.
On the same day, China released the import and export data for May. The data released last month showed that the growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter, with an increase in export growth and imports shifting from a decline to an increase, demonstrating strong resilience.
The annual technology feast! The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference is being held.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference WWDC25 will be held online from June 10 to 14 Beijing time. This year's slogan is "Sleek peek", and the media speculates that this may hint at an unprecedented visual design change for Apple’s operating systems, which will be launched alongside iOS 19, iPadOS 19, and macOS 16.
According to current media reports, Apple will announce a major overhaul of the iOS system, real-time translation features for AirPods, and the addition of dedicated game applications. However, Apple may not release new hardware products at WWDC this year.
Regarding new product releases, Apple is expected to launch significant updates across all its platforms, including iOS 26, macOS 26, iPadOS 26, and watchOS 26. The focus may be on design updates and long-awaited features, such as better window management support on the iPad. While most of the spotlight may be on a visual overhaul, Apple has reportedly been quietly preparing some enhancements for applications like Messages, Music, Notes, and CarPlay, some of which could be announced as early as next week.
Tesla's Robotaxi service is expected to launch on June 12 in Austin.
According to informed sources, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ the plan is to officially launch its highly anticipated robotaxi service on June 12 in Austin, Texas. This internal news has not been confirmed by official sources but aligns with Musk's previous promise of launching the service by the end of June. Musk stated this month that Tesla will initially deploy about 10 self-driving robotaxis in Austin, with a rapid expansion to 1,000 vehicles in the following months.
Several major companies reveal their earnings reports: Oracle and Adobe have announced their performance.
As the earnings season approaches its end, several major enterprises are still announcing their performance.
$Oracle (ORCL.US)$ The Q4 earnings report is expected to be released after market close on Wednesday, June 11. Wall Street Analysts predict that Oracle's upcoming quarterly EPS will be $1.64, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year; revenue is expected to reach $15.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. It is noteworthy that the consensus EPS forecast has remained stable over the past 30 days, reflecting the market's consistent expectations for the company's performance, unaffected by short-term fluctuations.
$Adobe (ADBE.US)$The second quarter earnings report will be released on Thursday, with the market focusing on its AI product monetization capability. In March, due to guidance not exceeding expectations, the stock price experienced a large drop. However, first quarter revenue of $5.71 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.08 both exceeded expectations. Its CEO Shantanu Narayen stated, "The company has seized the initiative in the AI-driven creative economy," and reiterated the annual revenue target of $23.3 billion to $23.55 billion.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
June 9, Monday.
Keywords: First meeting of China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, China's May CPI, Japan's trade balance, US April wholesale sales month-on-month.
On Monday, in terms of economic data, China's May CPI and PPI; Japan's April trade balance; US April wholesale sales month-on-month, and May New York Fed one-year inflation expectations will be announced.
In terms of financial events, He Lifeng, a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the United Kingdom from June 8 to 13. During that period, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the US side; the US government needs to respond to the ruling of the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) from which CAFC will decide whether to continue to "suspend" the ruling of the International Trade Court (CIT) regarding the illegality of Trump tariffs to maintain tariffs until the appeal is completed.
In terms of market closures, the Australian stock market will be closed for a day due to the king's birthday.
June 10, Tuesday.
Keywords: Apple WWDC Global Developers Conference, GameStop performance, US May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, China's May M2 money supply year-on-year.
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, investors may pay attention to the US May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and China's May M2 money supply year-on-year.
In terms of financial events,$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The Global Developer Conference (WWDC) will be held at Apple Park, where its new Asia Vets application strategy will be announced.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $GameStop (GME.US)$ Earnings Reports will be released after the market closes.
June 11, Wednesday.
Keywords: US May CPI, core CPI, Oracle earnings, API Crude Oil Product inventory for the week, EIA Crude Oil Product inventory, EIA monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.
On Wednesday, economic data will include the US May non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, non-seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate, the API Crude Oil Product inventory for the week, and the EIA Crude Oil Product inventory.
In terms of financial events, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testified before the House committee; the EIA released the monthly short-term energy outlook report.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ Performance will be announced after the market closes, live broadcast of performance at 5:00 AM Beijing time on June 12.
June 12, Thursday
Keywords: U.S. May PPI, core PPI, weekly initial jobless claims, 10-year Treasury auction, Tesla Robotaxi, Adobe performance, EIA natural gas inventory.
On Thursday, regarding economic data, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, May PPI year-on-year, PPI month-on-month, the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction bidding rate and bid-to-cover ratio as of June 11, and the EIA natural gas inventory for the week will be released.
In terms of financial events, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$The Robotaxi service may launch in Austin on June 12.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $Adobe (ADBE.US)$Earnings will be announced after hours, with a live broadcast at 5:00 AM on June 13, Beijing time.
June 13, Friday.
Keywords: Federal Reserve 'U.S. Quarterly Financial Accounts Report', Eurozone April Trade Balance, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, one-year inflation rate.
On Friday, economic data will include the preliminary value of the one-year inflation rate in the United States, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, the seasonally adjusted Eurozone April Trade Balance, and the April Industrial Production Month-on-Month.
In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve announced the "Quarterly Financial Account Report for the United States."
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