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U.S. stock market outlook | Ahead of the non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, with the three major futures showing mixed trends; high-performing stocks rose in pre-market trading, with most NVIDIA Hold Positions remaining

Futu News ·  Jun 5 20:36

Hot News

  • In Pre-Market Trading on Wednesday, the three major U.S. index futures showed mixed trends.

The European Central Bank lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, marking the seventh consecutive meeting of rate cuts. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were reduced from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4% respectively, reaching the lowest levels since the beginning of 2023. This is a response to the slowing inflation and the threat posed by the Trump trade war to economic growth in the Eurozone. The European Central Bank anticipates core inflation rates of 2.4% for 2025, 1.9% for 2026, and 1.9% for 2027. (The March expectations were 2.2%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively.)

Analysts from Institutions pointed out that the European Central Bank lowered interest rates again as expected on Thursday, which may deepen President Trump's disappointment with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Trump stated on Wednesday local time that Powell should lower rates now, using the European Central Bank's actions as an example.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 was recorded at 0.247 million, higher than the market expectation of 0.235 million, reaching the highest level since the week of October 5 last year. U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline after the release of initial jobless claims and international trade data, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipping by 4.5 basis points to 4.322%.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the non-farm payroll report for May 2025. Following the unexpected growth in JOLTS employment and the surprisingly released U.S. May ADP data, investors are closely watching any employment growth or adjustments in this non-farm report.

  • $Ciena (CIEN.US)$Fell over 5% in Pre-Market Trading, the company's second quarter diluted EPS was below market expectations.

Network equipment company.$Ciena (CIEN.US)$In pre-market trading on Thursday, the stock fell over 5% after the company failed to meet second-quarter earnings expectations. The adjusted EPS for Q2 was 42 cents, lower than the 52 cents generally set by Wall Street. Revenue reached 1.13 billion dollars, surpassing the analyst forecast of 1.09 billion dollars.

  • NVIDIA's major holdings$Applied Digital (APLD.US)$In pre-market trading, the stock rose over 6%, after gaining nearly 30% overnight, it has approached doubling this week.

  • Data Center Operators$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$Pre-Market Trading rose over 3%, this stock is a Hold Position of NVIDIA.

  • American Software Company$MongoDB (MDB.US)$In pre-market trading, it surged over 16% as Q1 performance and guidance exceeded expectations.

MongoDB's Q1 revenue was 0.549 billion dollars, up from 0.451 billion dollars in the same period last year. MongoDB raised its outlook for fiscal year 2026. The company now expects full-year revenue to be between 2.25-2.29 billion dollars, previously guided at 2.24-2.28 billion dollars. MongoDB expects full-year adjusted EPS to be between 2.94-3.12 dollars, higher than the previous forecast of 2.44-2.62 dollars.

  • $Five Below (FIVE.US)$Expected net sales for Q2 to exceed expectations, with a pre-market increase of over 10%.

Retailers$Five Below (FIVE.US)$In the first fiscal quarter, adjusted diluted EPS was $0.86, up from $0.60 a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $0.83. The company anticipates adjusted EPS for the second fiscal quarter to be between $0.50 and $0.62, with net sales expected to range from $0.975 billion to $0.995 billion. Analysts expect $54 and $9.547 billion respectively.

  • Taking place next week! Apple's 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference focuses on system updates, from a brand new naming mechanism and disruptive design revisions to new features and Apple Intelligence.

From June 10 to 14, Beijing time. $Apple (AAPL.US)$The 2025 WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference) will be held, which will be freely available online to all developers. Developers and students will also have the opportunity to participate in a special offline event at Apple Park on the day of the conference opening.

Unlike the content that developers focus on related to Apple software development, ordinary digital enthusiasts are undoubtedly most concerned about the annual release of the new version of the system, which includes six major software platforms: iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, tvOS, and visionOS, and there may even be the legendary homeOS.

According to leaked information, this year's WWDC will focus on system updates, from a new naming mechanism and disruptive design overhaul to new features and Apple Intelligence.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It was announced on the official website that $10 billion will be invested in North Carolina to build a new data center to expand its AI infrastructure.

Amazon hopes to enhance its competitiveness in the AI field through heavy investment to address challenges from $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Challenges from competitors like OpenAI. This year, Amazon has allocated up to 100 billion dollars in capital expenditure, most of which will be used for AI-related projects.

  • Stablecoin giant$Circle (CRCL.US)$Going public tonight! IPO pricing raised to 31 dollars per share, raising 1.1 billion dollars.

On June 4 local time, according to media reports, based on documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday, this USDC stablecoin issuer received 25 times oversubscription, ultimately increasing the number of shares issued from 32 million to 34 million. The expected pricing is $31 per share, which is not only above the expected range of $27-28 but has also significantly jumped from the initial range of $24-26.

Based on this price, Circle's Market Cap will reach 6.9 billion USD. If employee stock options, restricted stock units, and warrants are included, the company's fully diluted valuation is approximately 8.1 billion USD.

According to reports, this issuance is led by JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs as underwriters. In addition, ARK Invest has expressed interest in purchasing up to 0.15 billion USD worth of shares,$Blackrock (BLK.US)$and plans to acquire about 10% of the IPO shares. It is noteworthy that Blackstone manages a government money market fund on behalf of Circle, which holds 90% of its reserves in USDC stablecoins, with a balance of 53.3 billion USD as of May 29.

Global Macro

  • Han Zheng meets with the U.S. delegation of the high-level U.S.-China Track II dialogue.

On June 5th, Vice President Han Zheng met with the U.S. delegation for the high-level two-track dialogue in Peking.

Han Zheng stated that the China-U.S. relationship is one of the most important bilateral relationships in today's world. Currently, the China-U.S. relationship is at a critical historical juncture. Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation between China and the U.S. not only benefit both countries but also contribute to global peace and development. It is hoped that the high-level two-track dialogue can continuously gather insights from insightful individuals in both countries, enhance the understanding and comprehension of China among various sectors in the U.S., and jointly promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations.

The U.S. side stated that the high-level two-track dialogue between the U.S. and China helps both sides better understand each other and provides more beneficial ideas for the development of bilateral relations. The economic development of China is admirable, and both parties should strengthen dialogue and cooperation in areas such as trade and investment. (Xinhua News Agency)

  • The Ministry of Commerce responds to the U.S. side's new restrictive measures against China and the increase of steel and aluminum tariffs.

The Ministry of Commerce states that China's opposition to the U.S. 301 tariff is clear and consistent. The U.S. 301 tariff measures are typical examples of unilateralism and trade protectionism. Previously, a WTO panel ruled that the U.S. 301 tariffs violate WTO rules. The ultimate cost of the U.S. 301 tariffs is borne by American businesses and consumers, which is typical self-harming behavior. We urge the U.S. side to completely eliminate all kinds of restrictive measures against China, including the 301 tariffs, to jointly maintain the spirit of consensus in the Geneva trade talks, and to promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations.

In response to the U.S. increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, the Ministry of Commerce noted that China has repeatedly emphasized that the 242 tariff is a typical example of unilateralism and protectionism, which has long been determined by the WTO dispute resolution mechanism to violate WTO rules. The U.S. has once again raised tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives, which not only harms others but also itself, does not help maintain industrial security, and will seriously disrupt the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain, facing opposition from multiple countries. China urges the U.S. to respect economic laws, discard zero-sum thinking, stop the generalization and abuse of the concept of national security, and work with all parties to safeguard the rules-based multilateral trading system, resolving respective concerns through equal dialogue and jointly maintaining the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.

  • The Trump administration is renegotiating certain subsidies previously provided to semiconductor companies during former President Biden's term, suggesting a possible cancellation or reduction.

On Wednesday, U.S. Eastern Time, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated at a congressional hearing that the Trump administration is renegotiating some subsidies provided to semiconductor companies during former President Biden's term, indicating a possible cancellation or reduction of certain subsidies.

Former President Biden signed the Chips and Science Act in 2022, announcing an investment of $52.7 billion to promote semiconductor chip manufacturing and research in the U.S., and to attract chip manufacturers away from Asia. The plan claims to provide billions of dollars in funding for semiconductor giants, including Samsung from South Korea, SK Hynix, and U.S. companies.

Lutnick told senators on the Senate Appropriations Committee that some of the funding during the Biden era "seems overly generous, and we have been able to renegotiate," adding that the goal of the Trump administration's move is to benefit American taxpayers. Lutnick pointed out that Taiwan Semiconductor is an example of successful renegotiation, having increased its initial commitment to invest $65 billion in U.S. manufacturing by $100 billion.

  • Elon Musk has intensified his assault on the iconic tax cut plan by President Trump, urging the American public to contact legislators to veto the plan.

On Wednesday local time, former U.S. Department of Efficiency (DOGE) advisor and Tesla CEO Musk intensified attacks on President Trump's signature tax cut plan (the "Big Beautiful Tax Act"), urging Americans to contact legislators to "veto" the measure.

Musk shared a still from the movie 'Kill Bill' on Social Media, writing: 'Call your senator, call your congressman. It is wrong to bankrupt America!' In another post, Musk suggested, 'A new spending bill should be drafted to avoid a significant increase in the deficit and to prevent raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.'

Media outlets cited insiders revealing that Musk's public opposition to the bill is partly due to the fact that the bill cuts electric vehicle tax credits that benefit Tesla. Additional points of contention include: Musk had discussed continuing to work for Trump in a 'special government employee' capacity after the 130-day statutory limit, but the White House rejected this proposal. The Trump administration also dismissed Musk's suggestion that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rely on his Starlink satellite system and withdrew Musk's preferred NASA administrator candidate.

  • The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity in recent weeks, with widespread mention of tariffs and uncertainty.

On Wednesday local time, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that economic activity in the United States has slightly declined in recent weeks since the last report, indicating that tariffs and high uncertainty are having a ripple effect on the economy. The report stated: "All regions reported high levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading businesses and households to be cautious and wait-and-see in their decision-making."

The Beige Book report indicated that prices in the United States are rising at a "moderate" pace. Additionally, there are widespread reports that contacts expect future costs and prices to rise at a faster pace. Some regions expect these increases to be strong, significant, or substantial.

  • Trump's ally, Bowman, has been appointed as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, signaling that a 'deregulation era' may be approaching on Wall Street.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman was confirmed by the Senate on Wednesday to serve as the Vice Chair of Supervision for the central bank, further marking the shift towards looser financial regulation during President Trump's administration.

As a Republican from a family of fifth-generation bankers, Bowman has long advocated for 'differentiated regulation' in public speeches. She has sent strong signals to adjust regulatory priorities, being more closely tied to the banking industry compared to her predecessor Michael Barr, who resigned earlier this year after frequently clashing with her on issues like bank regulation, stress test reforms, and capital rules.

Bowman advocates that regulatory agencies should coordinate on financial system goals. According to sources, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant has led closed-door meetings between Bowman and other regulators aimed at streamlining the regulatory framework. Bowman's team has also brought in advisors from the lending giant Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's top law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, and the lobbying organization for large banks, the Bank Policy Institute.

Top 20 transactions in Pre-Market Trading.

Macro calendar reminders for the USA stock market.

22:00 Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for the US in May.

22:00 EIA Natural Gas Inventory (billion cubic feet) for the week ending May 30 in the US.

The next day.

20:30 Adjusted Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States for May (10,000 people)

20:30 Unemployment Rate in the United States for May

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