The Bank of America report points out that the global Autos Industry is facing a dual pressure from power systems and policies, forcing the focus of enterprises' Global Strategy to return to the traditional internal combustion engine field.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the Bank of America report highlights that the global Autos Industry is currently under pressure from dual aspects of power systems and policies, compelling companies to refocus their Global Strategy on traditional internal combustion engines. The report believes that the key factors determining the survival of car manufacturers in the next four years are the speed of new vehicle replacement, competitiveness of sales channels, and market share.
Bank of America emphasizes that the current Industry is facing two major shocks: 1) The collapse of the false boom in electric vehicles due to weak consumer demand and the withdrawal of government subsidies, causing chaos in electrification plans; 2) The intensifying trade war adds uncertainty, hindering new vehicle launches in 2026-2027, and the restructuring of the supply chain is dragging down the recovery of the Industry.
In this context, Bank of America warns that automakers must rely on their internal combustion engine product lines to maintain Cash / Money Market, in order to cope with the severe volatility in the next four years.
Based on the replacement rate and product mix forecasts, Bank of America categorizes companies into three categories: High-risk camp: Nissan faces shrinking market share risks due to low replacement rates and unclear strategy.
Car manufacturers with potential for market share growth: Tesla (TSLA.US) and other OEMs (including new electric vehicle entrants Lucid, Rivian, Polestar, as well as Volvo AB Unsponsored ADR Class B, JLR, Mazda, SUBARU CORP Unsponsored ADR, Mitsubishi, etc.) are expected to expand their market share due to high replacement rates.
Car manufacturers able to maintain current market share: Most traditional automakers are temporarily holding on to market share by controlling their pickup/SUV product lines.
The differences in replacement rates among major Autos manufacturers seem to be narrowing again, primarily attributed to the product launch timing and the timeline analyzed by Bank of America. This is particularly evident in the range of 2026-2029, where, despite Toyota (TM.US) being at the low end, it shows strong performance in 2025 and is expected to perform strongly in 2030. Meanwhile, other OEMs, Tesla, and Volkswagen are at the high end, while Toyota and Nissan are at the low end.
Additionally, the factors of product segment market mix should also be taken into account. Considering these factors as a whole, Bank of America believes that the relative differences in product replacement rates and other factors may drive slight shifts in market share before 2029, but the next two years may be markedly different.
