Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, one of the most well-funded regions in the world, has won the title of IPO financing in the past 2019. At the beginning of 2020, affected by the "epidemic", people's livelihood was seriously affected. The Hang Seng Index fell to its lowest level in more than three years, and PB (average price-to-book ratio) fell below 1. In this special period, Hong Kong new stocks have become the best safe haven in the storm. In March, there are a number of Hong Kong new stocks listed out of the market independent of the market, the stock itself will not speak, but if you take a closer look at the K-line and sum up the data, you will find that the message has been conveyed.

According to statistics, the first-day performance of all IPO listed in Hong Kong since March, the cumulative increase so far, the subscription ratio of public offering, and so on, as shown in the following figure:

Three New Trends in Hong Kong New Stock Market

From this, it can be observed that three new trends are taking shape in the Hong Kong IPO market:

First, it is difficult for incremental funds to enter.March is the hottest month for new shares in previous years, because it happens to be stuck in the period of validity of the annual report, and the HKEx will allow a large number of companies to be listed centrally. But in March this year, Hong Kong stocks not only had a small number of IPO, but also lacked large-scale IPO. For example, mainland buyers have recently imported a large amount of crude oil, resulting in a backlog of inventories, which cannot be put into storage after the arrival of new imports, and the bulk of funds in the Hong Kong market are also unable to enter the market because of the reduction in the number and scale of IPO. Typical cases, such as well-known snack stocks in March, had to postpone the listing plan due to market reasons after passing the hearing. According to the judgment that incremental funds can not enter, although there are objective reasons for the decline of risk appetite caused by the peak of the epidemic and oil price war, what is more important is that the interruption of Chinese-funded high-quality IPO projects leads to weak subjective willingness to enter large amounts of funds.

Second, the stock of funds tends to be cautious.There is a lack of large-scale high-quality IPO. For medium-sized IPO with a fund-raising of about HK $1 billion, stock shareholders have a wait-and-see mentality towards the future and lack the motivation to take the initiative to do more to create income, which represents the investment attitude of most non-professional investors in the market at present.

Third, the fund needs to find IPO projects with clean technology and healthy fundamentals to keep warm.Unlike stock shareholders, good fund managers are taking full advantage of the cold market conditions of public offerings and the small wealth of retail investors to take advantage of the excellent opportunity to continue to drive up the share price of IPO after listing. At this time to create star stocks, is to create star funds.

New shares in Hong Kong may become a safe haven for capital

Specific to individual stocks, according to the actual trading situation, summed up the following main points:

The main results are as follows: 1. The new shares with low subscription ratio of public offering are easy to become a safe haven for capital, and the stock price is becoming more and more stable and strong after listing.Just imagine, when the market is not willing to buy, how can those new shares with mediocre fundamentals raise enough funds to complete the international placement? Do those financiers who have taken the international placement naively want to exit quickly through the secondary market? If the escape door has been closed, which is the direction of operation with the least resistance and the greatest profit? Unlike when the market was hot, it now takes only a small amount of money to move the entire market.

On the contrary, GongThe development, sale and subscription ratio is higher, the callback ratio is more than 10%, and the stocks with no bright spots in fundamentals are the most dangerous! For example, 1433 Changda Holdings, 6918 Qishida.At present, it is almost difficult to undertake in the market, even if the winner is willing to cut the meat, it is difficult to escape, at the same time, due to a large amount of callback, the technical side is not enough to form a stable support, and finally form a situation of killing more.

2. It is not a bad thing to raise a large amount of funds, and it is not a good thing to raise a small amount of funds.Just like buyers of luxury goods and buyers of cheap goods, the key is whether the product can find its target consumers.The biggest fear is that small stocks cannot technically create a safe haven for capital, and large stocks do not have imagination and cohesion for institutional investors.

For example, 1859 Yusheng culture, raising HK $1 billion, although the public offering is only 8%, and international placement accounts for 92% of the total issuance, the volume of street goods is still beyond the tolerance of small investors.For institutional buyers, the company's main business "providing variety show production" is not attractive enough. Due to the unclear positioning, can not attract small funds, but also can not gather large funds, so even if there is no callback, the stock price still does not rise but fall. Fortunately, there is no refund, the stock of funds is relatively stable, the stock price fluctuates little, which enhances the defensive. In the case of Yusheng culture, assuming that the amount of capital raised does not exceed 300 million, the target investors will be much clearer and the situation will be completely different.

Another medium-sized IPO that can be compared is Nuocheng Jianhua 9969.Although Nuocheng is not the biggest IPO in March, it is an unyielding star stock, whose main business is innovative drug research and development, which is an industry strongly supported and encouraged by the state, and the leader is Shi Yigong, a leading figure in Chinese biomedical industry. With these imaginative factors, Nuocheng gathered a group of large and medium-sized funds before the listing, and half of the HK $2.3 billion raised was locked in by foundation investors. Although the public offering has been retracted to 50%, the share price has risen instead of falling. On the contrary, taking advantage of the nervousness of the special period and the anxiety of retail investors wanting to make a profit, institutional funds patiently undertake the selling after listing with a low daily increase, gradually cleaning the surface of the market, making Nuocheng an excellent safe haven for funds and creating star performance.

3. There are also two new shares worthy of our special attention. One is Jianzhong International 0589 and the other is Jiuzheng Digital Entertainment 1961.Both of them are refunded due to overpurchase of public offerings, Jianzhong to 50% and nine to 30%. Why are the two branches in a completely different trend?

Unlike Changda and Qishida, what the two companies have in common is that major shareholders understand the rules of the game, not to push goods to the market, but to design trading plans. For Jiuzheng, it significantly lengthened the IPO time and even took the initiative to cut the lower limit of its share price by 10% to cater to the market, but it broke quickly after listing. The key here is that the strength of the major shareholders is not enough, and they have not been able to find the powerful funds to enter the market to form the main force. A friend in the industry revealed that in the end, most of the nine international placements were carried out by a hot money army with a fierce style. If the news is true, the nine will inevitably have ups and downs.

Jianzhong Construction 0589 public offering calls back 40%, but it can still go high, and so far it has remained above the IPO price. Frankly speaking, it is a bit of a surprise. Most of the Chinese construction stocks listed in Hong Kong are in no hurry to pull up early and tend to be in a long-term layout. As a matter of fact, we have made many unsuccessful one-on-one performances with management through securities firms, and it is very rare for the company to say that it is unwilling to meet investors. The reason is also very simple, the company's major shareholders are strong enough, do not need to promote, do not want to use securities firms to find unstable funds in the market. Recalling the trend after the listing of China Conch Venture 0586 (the second largest shareholder related party of Jianzhong Construction) may be the reference of Jianzhong Construction.

4. Finally, I would like to talk about a new share exchange bar 1753, which is a typical case that reveals the difficulties encountered by Chinese technology companies in Hong Kong stocks.

Like Jiuzun, Duba is also a mobile Internet company, a young industry and team whose style is destined to be different from the real estate infrastructure section and is unlikely to solve the financial problem on its own. Most of these companies try to make their share prices market-oriented through "value discovery", but as far as the current situation of Hong Kong stocks is concerned, once they fall into this misunderstanding, they may be troubled for a long time.

Taking the market-oriented route means gathering large funds, and in this inactive market, the sufficient condition for raising large funds is to cooperate with one of the three giants of BAT, join the camp, and find endorsements, so Weimeng 2013 and China's likes 8083 can be much better than exchange. And the same outstanding performance of the exchange bar, Huilun Technology, Chizi City, and so on, are likely to be unable to break through for a long time. In the same industry, different valuations are not directly related to the company's performance, which essentially reflects the attitude of the fund.