IQIYI, Inc. may have some errors in statistical caliber and disputes in accounting treatment when disclosing business data. But this is not business fraud, but there is a certain degree of flexibility in the accounting treatment. When the management chooses to disclose, it chooses the expression that is beneficial to itself. In other words, there may be so-called accounting flaws.

At about ten o'clock last night, I saw a piece of news:

What a "good luckin"! unexpectedly, iQIYI, Inc., with thick eyebrows and big eyes, also defected with LUCKN COFFEE DRC.

The stock price fell 13 points in an instant, calling it exhilarating.

What is the truth?

I looked through the report briefly and found that it was basically funny.

All counterfeiting must be motivated first; Gong Yu is not the actual controller, and such things as agent fraud are basically not seen in China.

But the report makes no mention of the motive for fraud at all. Who is idle to fake and play?

Of course, iQIYI, Inc. may have some errors in statistical caliber when disclosing business data, as well as disputes in accounting treatment. But this is not business fraud, but there is a certain degree of flexibility in the accounting treatment. When the management chooses to disclose, it chooses the expression that is beneficial to itself. In other words, there may be so-called accounting flaws.

In addition, there may be a certain benefit transfer relationship in the procurement of the series. In the past, the purchase of dramas was a big dye vat, and basically none of them was particularly clean. Isn't that how Yang Weidong and Liu Chunning were killed?

If iQIYI, Inc. 's management wants to fraud, it is also the transfer of benefits, but the first item at the core of the report is MAU's overstate, which is really drunk.

All right, after complaining, let's get down to business and study this spicy chicken report.

This paper is divided into several parts:

The hotspot map in MAU, "something."

Why did wolfpack misjudge the copyright distribution revenue?

Impossible triangle: deferred income, revenue recognition and number of members

Recognition of member income: a fun place for accountants

The hotspot map in MAU, "something."

In the first part, what is most mentioned in the report is the falsification of MAU. But it's not interesting to talk about the ad display system and QM data.

Haven't you seen how many times Kuaishou Technology and Douyin have fought over MAU,DAU in the past two years?

Why? because the statistical caliber is different.

To take a simple example: 18 years ago, Douyin users downloaded the video and played it on Weibo Corp. They actually played it once and counted it as a DAU.

The question is: is this a DAU? This is a Hamlet-style question, and people have different opinions.

Whether it is QM, aurora borealis or unreliable iResearch data, unless the company's data base is scanned, relying on the so-called technical statistics, basically only used to judge the trend.

Therefore, the various institutional data found in this so-called report are used for absolute numerical judgment, which is simply funny and very unprofessional.

Of course, this is not to say that the first part is all spicy chicken, there is merit. The reason is on Click Farm Activity.

That is to say, iQIYI, Inc. is faking the flow.

I specifically log on to the iQIYI, Inc. Index website and look up the key words: idol trainee

"Idol trainee" is popular in iQIYI, Inc. 's popular area (complete data can be checked on the iQIYI, Inc. Index website)

The total population of Tibet is only 3.44 million, and people speak Tibetan, and Tibet ranks second in the number of searches in the past three months.

This kind of distribution frequency chart should roughly match the population and cultural habits.

Obviously this picture reveals that iQIYI, Inc. may have some suspicion of brushing flow, otherwise the matter cannot be explained clearly. Otherwise, it is the iQIYI, Inc. index, its own data is not reliable, there is a problem.

Follow-up, and checked the hot-blooded street dance troupe, unexpectedly ranked first.

"Hot Blood Street Dance Troupe" is popular in iQIYI, Inc. 's popular area (complete data can be found on the iQIYI, Inc. Index website)

Isn't that funny? In a sparsely populated place like Tibet, if you speak Tibetan, you will be the first.

(the report says No. 5) I have a positive IQ, please don't insult me.

He searched the old boy again:

"Old Boy" is in iQIYI, Inc. 's popular area (complete data can be found on the iQIYI, Inc. Index website)

The old boy ranked eighth, which is really interesting.

However, there is a problem, these selected projects are two or three years ago or more. There may be a sample deviation.

So, I searched the details of the recent super-popular "Love apartment 5":

"Love apartment 5" is popular in iQIYI, Inc. 's popular area (complete data can be found on the iQIYI, Inc. Index website)

In this message, there is no problem: Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin.

In line with population distribution, cultural distribution, but also in line with common sense of life. It is logical and common sense that there are no such places as Tibet and Ningxia (with a population of 6.45 million in 2019).

So the question is, how to explain the above phenomenon?

First of all, let's take a look at the picture of their family:

The peak of the love apartment is in line with the broadcast time of the play, and the absolute number is also close to 6 million.

The average value of idol trainees is relatively low, and the time they intercept at will is about 170000.

In the past, the popularity of variety shows was less than that of popular dramas, which is not only in line with the common sense of amortization of film and television dramas, but also in line with the life cycle of film and television variety shows.

The answer to the question seems clear: there is no data distortion in iQIYI, Inc. 's popular Deep-Fried Chicken program.

In other words, the "heat index" of shorting the report has its own great limitations. According to logical deduction, there are contradictions. Short this, a typical dog's head.

In addition, the selected popular programs are outdated and very selective.

However, I still have to say that there may be a problem with iQIYI, Inc. 's data center. How does this heat map itself explain why Tibet can rank first? Please explain.

Of course, if you want to fake brush traffic, why choose such a small flow, and has been amortized variety or drama? The dose is not large enough, is it, perhaps, to avoid the analysis of audit importance level?

Do you have any friends who can explain this place? I really don't understand, but what is certain is that the evidence of the short report is self-contradictory.

Why did wolfpack misjudge the copyright distribution revenue?

This part refers to the copyright license income, to put it simply: isn't iQIYI, Inc. a bunch of homemade variety shows + homemade dramas? They can sell to other film and television platform companies, such as Youku, Tencent Video, and even Netflix.

The core logic of the short report: iQIYI, Inc. 's income from selling dramas is significantly higher than the market upper limit of 20, 000 yuan per episode.

On the other hand, an episode of iQIYI, Inc. 's play is sold for six or seventy thousand episodes.

The most imprecise logic in this part is that when analyzing, you forget how many times you have sold it.

For example, iQIYI, Inc. sells one of the Jubilee Raiders, perhaps at a price of 20, 000 per episode, but the problem is that since they have all chosen to be distributed, they should be sold to Tencent videos, Youku, or even Netflix.

Unit price thinking is right, but can not ignore the number of sales ah.

The bill can't be calculated this way.

Look at others to explain: the quality of the play has something to do with the price, 10,000 to 20,000 is the price of satellite TV, and so on.

In fact, the simplest thing is to ask people in the industry. You can even do peer-to-peer comparative analysis. But there was no such thing in the report, but simply found a former employee. I don't bother to look for research and data, so I'm interested in studying it by myself.

……

The follow-up questions about deferred income and income recognition need to be analyzed in combination with the hot dramas of that season.

Deferred income is linked to hot dramas and popular variety shows, while revenue recognition is related to accounting revenue recognition criteria; the relationship between the two is not linear.

In addition, the number of members is the data at the end of the period, that is, the last day of the disclosure period, while deferred income and accounting income recognition are period data. There must be a clear distinction between "cross-sectional data" and "period data".

I won't bother to write this. Next time, write a cheque first. )

With regard to the income recognition of joint members, this is only the different treatment of revenue recognized by net and gross in accounting. Boring, management chose this kind of data disclosure only to show the good side-- to maintain the APPRU value.

Summary:

The market has given the answer to this short report.

I have to say, market pricing is very effective.

To borrow the words of a ball player: it can only be said that at a good time to choose a company with weak operation in the near future and want to make a fortune, what is the key to iQIYI, Inc. 's position?

Basically do not make money, ha, or Lao Luo said, maybe cabbage money is also money.