On March 27, 2020, the weather in Hangzhou was overcast and rainy, and the sky was dark in the morning. It was a day when people couldn't wake up and wanted to sleep in for a while. However, Hangzhou residents climbed out of bed early and excitedly picked up their mobile phones and turned on Alipay: because Hangzhou will begin to distribute total value online at 08:00.1.68 billion consumption coupons了。

As a result, the coupons were snatched up in less than five minutes. But something more exciting is yet to come: starting from April 3, Hangzhou will issue the second phase of consumption coupons, and the total value of each card package will be greatly increased.

Although people are very active in grabbing consumption coupons, how much consumption can be driven by consumption coupons? Which industries will benefit?

What is the consumption voucher?

Consumption coupons, as the name implies, areAn economic policy tool to stimulate consumptionWhen the economy is in the doldrums and social consumption power declines sharply, the government or enterprises pay the bill and issue consumption vouchers to residents.

The purpose of issuing consumption coupons is to increase people's purchasing power and consumption desire in this way so as to revitalize consumption activities, and even further promote production and investment, and accelerate economic recovery.

According to the scope of use of consumption coupons, it can be divided into targeted consumption coupons for specific industries, such as catering coupons, travel coupons, and non-targeted consumption coupons for multiple industries. The consumption vouchers issued in the first phase of Hangzhou are aimed atIn the administrative region of HangzhouAll physical merchantsBelong toNon-targeted consumption voucher。

According to the object of consumption coupons, consumption coupons can be divided into universal consumption coupons for all citizens and public welfare consumption coupons for poor groups, such as those issued to low-and middle-income groups affected by the epidemic, by providing subsidies to make up for the decline in income caused by the epidemic and ensure basic living.

In addition to Hangzhou, in the past two months, many cities across the country have introduced consumption voucher policies with their own characteristics combined with regional conditions. Such as Qingdao issued 340 million yuan fitness coupons, Jinan consumer coupons more emphasis on the culture and travel industry, Qinhuai District of Nanjing and Shenyang respectively issued consumption coupons for the catering industry.

In fact, in addition to consumption coupons, there is a common policy used to stimulate consumption, that is, the government sends money directly to residents to encourage people to spend. However, cash subsidies are often partly converted into household savings, and Chinese residents like to save money very much, so by comparisonIn our country, consumption coupons deducting a certain amount of consumption is a more effective policy to encourage consumption.。

In addition to ensuring that subsidies can fully affect consumption, another advantage of consumption coupons is that they canQuickly stimulate short-term consumption by limiting the quantity, quota and effective time of use.

For example, the first phase of consumption coupons just issued by Hangzhou can only use a 10 yuan coupon for every 40 yuan, with the intention of driving higher real consumption through less consumption subsidies and rapidly raising the level of marginal consumption in the short term.

In addition, the first batch of consumption coupons issued in Hangzhou is only valid for seven days, resulting in many people crazily buying the coupons in order to spend the coupons in time, and the role of rapid consumption in the short term is more significant.

Consumption coupons may still be a relatively novel thing for many people, especially for the new generation, but in fact, consumption coupons have a long history and are not the first in our country.

Consumption coupons were first used in Germany after the first World War in 1933, when the German government began to try to distribute a certain number of consumption vouchers to residents every week for daily consumption and wages.

After the bursting of Japan's economic bubble in 1999, in order to stimulate the flagging economy and consumption, the Japanese government has also distributed "regional revitalization coupons" totaling 619.4 billion yen, with a face value of 1000 yen, and 20, 000 yen per person, to people under the age of 15 and over 65.

China's Taiwan, Hangzhou and Chengdu have also issued consumption coupons around 2009.

A large number of historical experience has proved that consumer coupons are actually a relatively mature tool for social relief, and the experience is also very mature.

In that case, what is the role of the government's seemingly simple and rude consumption voucher policy?

How good is the coupon?

According to a survey by Japan's Ministry of Economic Planning, consumer coupons start from consumers' motivation and increase people's chances of buying more expensive goods.32%Consumption. The data from Taiwan show that the pulling effect of consumption coupons is about25%。

At the same time, from the historical data of Japan and Taiwan, the stimulating effect of consumption coupons on household consumption isStructural property的：Mainly used inFood, clothing and other daily necessities and durable goods that are supposed to be consumed。

According to Hangzhou data, in the last week of January 2009, the commercial and trade industry in Hangzhou City recovered 31.5 million yuan of consumption coupons, of which supermarkets accounted for a large proportion of the recovery volume.94%, and most of them are used to buy food and beverages (60%). The pulling effect of consumption coupons on the trade industry is2.06倍。

The data of the total retail sales of consumer goods in Hangzhou in 2009 showed that after the issuance of consumption coupons, the total retail sales of consumer goods rebounded significantly from much lower than the national average. According to the estimates of Sino-Thai Securities, the consumption coupons of 1 billion yuan increased the total social retail sales of Hangzhou by about 15.5 billion yuan for the whole year.

This round of Hangzhou issued the first phase of consumption coupons, the stimulus effect is also obvious.

According to the data provided by Alipay, the first batch of 20 million consumption coupons in Hangzhou this year has driven consumption by 453 million since it was issued at 8: 00 on February 27th as of 16:00 on the 29th.People spent more than 200 yuan in order to spend 10 yuan of coupons.. Among them, the pulling effect on supermarkets, shopping malls and catering is very obvious, and the daily passenger flow and sales volume of major supermarkets and shopping malls have increased significantly compared with the previous year.

Securities firm's point of view

Since only Hangzhou and Chengdu have issued consumption coupons on a small scale in mainland China, it is difficult to accurately measure the impact of consumption coupons on related industries and companies. The current research of mainstream securities firms, it is generally used as a sample of the history of Japan issuing consumption coupons to the whole country in 1999 to hedge the impact of the financial crisis.

Zhang Wenlang of the vast number of securitiesIt is believed that consumption coupons have been widely distributed in Taiwan and Japan, and it is estimated that the additional pulling effect of consumption coupons on consumption is between 10% and 40%. In other words, compared with the situation where no consumption coupons are issued, the issuance of 100 yuan consumption coupons can bring additional consumption of 10-40 yuan.

Team of Chen long, Xu Chi and Zhang Wenyu of Zhongtai SecuritiesThe study found that consumption coupons can not only promote consumption, but also accelerate the change of consumer goods industry pattern. The 1.05 billion yuan consumption coupons issued by Hangzhou in 2009 increased the total amount of retail sales by about 15.5 billion yuan in that year.The large-scale consumption coupons issued by Japan in 1999 directly stimulated the explosive growth of cost-effective consumer goods such as Uniqlo and instant noodles.

Li Hao of Guohai SecuritiesTracking the use of the first phase of consumption coupons issued in Hangzhou, it is found that 29.83 million yuan has been paid in less than two days from the event day (March 27) to 4: 00 p.m. on March 29th, driving consumption of 453 million yuan.