European stocks opened lower on April 8, with Britain's FTSE 100th index down 1.44%, Germany's DAX index down 0.75% and the European Stoxx 50 index down 1.04%.

-Editor's Note

Several major stock indexes around the world have experienced two "bull and bear gear shifts" in a month, and for some markets, the tech bull market is only "short-lived".

On Tuesday, local time, U. S. stocks opened higher and lower, and all three major stock indexes closed slightly lower. The Dow closed down 0.12%, giving up more than 900 points of intraday gains. The Nasdaq fell 0.33% and the S & P 500 fell 0.16%.

European stocks continued to rebound, with major stock indexes up more than 2 per cent.

Since the trough in the global market in mid-March, several major stock market indices and some commodities have risen more than 20%, entering a technical bull market.

Say goodbye to the darkest hour for a while

Since March, many countries around the world have taken major measures to curb the spread of novel coronavirus, vaccine development and economic stimulus. Since April, these measures have had an initial effect, boosting market confidence.

On the vaccine front, once again, there is good news:

At present, two vaccines around the world have entered the clinical trial stage, namely, the mRNA vaccine developed by ModernaTherapeutics, a biotechnology company funded by the National Institutes of Health, and the adenovirus vector vaccine jointly developed by the scientific team of the Chinese people's Liberation Army Academy of military Sciences and CANSINOBIO.

On April 6, the President of the United States said that another novel coronavirus vaccine developed in the United States began phase I clinical trials on the same day. This is the new progress made in vaccine research and development after the first phase clinical trial of novel coronavirus vaccine mRNA-1273 in the United States.

In response to the spread of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the United States is stepping up research and development of vaccines. The mRNA-1273 vaccine, developed jointly by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health and Modena, is now in phase I clinical trials. Johnson & Johnson of the United States also said on March 30 that it had identified the first choice of vaccine and would start human trials in September.

On April 7, Inovio Pharmaceuticals announced that FDA in the United States has accepted the new drug clinical trial application submitted by the company for novel coronavirus's candidate DNA vaccine INO-4800. This is the third COVID-19 vaccine in the world to enter clinical trials, and it is also the first candidate vaccine for DNA.

In terms of curbing the spread of novel coronavirus, a number of measures have been taken at the same time and achieved initial results to boost market confidence:

In March, many countries in Europe and the United States have begun to announce measures such as "city closure", "closure", community isolation, home isolation, etc., step up monitoring efforts, establish square cabin hospitals, and so on.

With regard to the "cultural differences" of wearing masks, the official attitudes of many European and American countries have also begun to change.

Tan Yongshi, Canada's chief public health officer, told the media on April 6 local time that wearing "non-medical" masks would help stop the spread of novel coronavirus and advised the public to take this "extra" measure.

Portuguese President de Sosa told the media on the 4th that he wears a mask to protect himself when he goes shopping every week.

Authorities in the Lombardy region of Italy have asked all people to wear masks when they go out. In a statement, local people were asked to wear masks or cover their mouths and noses with scarves when they went out.

The first lady of the United States has used social media to urge people to wear masks.

The Robert Koch Institute, Germany's federal agency for disease control and prevention, made it clear on its website that wearing masks can "effectively reduce the risk of contracting the virus through coughing, sneezing or talking" and therefore recommends that "even people without COVID-19 's symptoms should wear masks in public places."

In terms of the economic stimulus package, the scale is expanding and the number of economies participating in the stimulus is increasing:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats in an undisclosed conference call that Congress's next stimulus bill to support the U.S. economy during the epidemic crisis will be at least $1 trillion.

Japan has prepared an additional budget of 16.8 trillion yen for the stimulus bill, which will hand out a total of 4 trillion yen in cash to households, 2.3 trillion yen to small businesses and 1.8 trillion yen in 10-year government bonds.

Brazilian economy Minister Geidez said the stimulus measures could reach 1 trillion Brazilian reais.

Thailand approved a loan of 1 trillion baht for the stimulus package.

Mr Orban, the prime minister, said Hungary's stimulus package would be equivalent to 18 per cent of GDP and would provide loan guarantees worth 2 trillion Hungarian forint.

European Commission President von der Lane said the European Union would allocate up to 100 billion euros to countries severely affected by the epidemic to make up for falling wages.

Be on guard against some risks

First, emerging market economies may run into trouble.

On the one hand, novel coronavirus is currently mainly in Asia, Europe and the United States, and emerging market countries such as Africa and South America are about to be put to the test. Only two countries in Africa have not yet reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, and the number of confirmed cases in countries such as Brazil and Argentina in South America is increasing day by day. In the coming months, virus prevention and control in these areas and the resulting economic impact are worrying.

On the other hand, emerging market countries have relatively single economic pillars and are less able to withstand the economic shocks caused by novel coronavirus, which may be a drag on the pace of global economic recovery.

Capital Economics, a research firm, expects emerging market output to fall by 1.5 per cent this year, the first decline since reliable records began in 1951. According to Bank of America Corporation (Bank of America Corp.) It is estimated that since the US economy could contract by as much as 8 per cent this year, the biggest decline in decades, even if some developing regions manage to avoid coronavirus infection, blockades and expected recessions in industrialized countries will also cause serious economic losses.

Second, the wave of layoffs and bankruptcies may be more ferocious than expected.

According to the Nikkei News, Nissan will lay off 10000 American workers affected by the epidemic.

Hornbeck Offshore Services, a well-known marine shipowner in the United States, announced that he would file for bankruptcy protection in accordance with Chapter 11 (Chapter 11) of the American bankruptcy Law.

In March, US start-ups cut nearly 4000 jobs. According to incomplete statistics, more than 40 start-ups in the United States announced layoffs in March, covering areas such as food delivery, artificial intelligence and transportation.

Hendm, Volkswagen, GM, Boeing Co and others have all announced layoffs, or announced that they are considering layoffs, as well as "retention without pay" and so on.

Third, the factors supporting the strength of the stock market, such as dividends and buybacks, are difficult to provide momentum for the market in the past year or two.

After the big British banks did not pay dividends, more companies joined the team of no dividends.

JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to shareholders that the COVID-19 epidemic would lead to a "severe recession" in the US economy and put financial pressure on the banking industry similar to that of the 2008 financial crisis, and JPMorgan Chase & Co would not be immune. Although JPMorgan Chase & Co is well prepared for a possible crisis, the impact of the epidemic is completely different from previous Fed stress tests. JPMorgan Chase & Co has suspended share buybacks and is considering suspending dividends.

Goldman Sachs Group predicts that buybacks will fall 75 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 from a year earlier, 70 per cent in the third quarter and 65 per cent in the fourth quarter. A further 40 per cent year-on-year decline in the first quarter of 2021 would result in 12-month buybacks 65 per cent below their 2018 peak.

Over the past 25 years, 20% of stocks in the s & p 500 have returned an average annualized rate of-27% during the buyback restriction period, while companies are free to repurchase shares with an annualized return of-16%. The decline in buybacks also means slower growth in earnings per share.