This week's key agenda overview
The tariff negotiations between Europe and America face numerous difficulties, and if the 50% tariffs take effect on June 1st, it will be a fatal blow to the European Union.
According to CCTV News, on Friday, May 23 local time, U.S. President Trump stated on Social Media that he suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1. This announcement not only breaks the previous 90-day 'buffer period' expectation but also puts the already difficult U.S.-EU trade negotiations at risk of collapse.
According to the Financial Times from the United Kingdom on the 23rd, US President Trump's trade negotiation representatives are pressuring the European Union to unilaterally reduce tariffs on American goods, stating that if the EU does not make concessions, the negotiations aimed at avoiding an additional 20% 'reciprocal tariff' will not progress.
Analysis suggests that the Trump administration views tariff negotiations as a means to pressure competitors and force concessions, while the EU behaves as if dealing with allies, consistently following established global trade rules in negotiations with the United States. This is the main reason for the slow progress in negotiations. However, if it drags on until June 1, and a 50% tariff truly takes effect and continues, it will be a devastating blow for the EU.
Will Trump be unable to wield the tariff stick anymore? The US International Trade Court will make a ruling on a preliminary injunction motion.
The US International Trade Court will make a ruling on a preliminary injunction motion, which may abolish the tariffs announced by Trump on April 2. Reports indicate that this ruling may be issued by the end of this month. This also means that once the court approves the injunction, the already implemented 10% comprehensive tariffs and the deferred reciprocal tariffs will all be halted, and the tense negotiations between the US and the European Union, Japan, India, and other countries will be reshuffled. Although the likelihood of the court approving the preliminary injunction is low, it is a potential bullish risk that the market generally overlooks.
The core of this legal challenge centers on Trump's power to impose global tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. In April of this year, Trump announced a base tariff of 10% on all imported goods, while imposing higher rates on countries he deemed as 'bad actors.'
This 'self-harming' tariff policy has stirred strong dissatisfaction among American domestic enterprises. Soon, five small businesses, including V.O.S. Selections wine import company, filed a lawsuit with the International Trade Court, claiming that the president has no authority to impose these tariffs without going through Congress. The plaintiffs are primarily represented by the conservative constitutional rights organization Liberty Justice Center.
U.S. inflation data is coming back, will inflation caused by tariffs start to show?
Next Friday, the first U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation and consumption data will be released since Trump's "Liberation Day." Core PCE is the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, which saw a significant decline in March, falling year-on-year from 3.0% to 2.6%. According to the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model, the April core PCE year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain unchanged, but overall PCE is anticipated to slow slightly to 2.2%.
With no change in the core inflation rate, it is hard to see the Federal Reserve taking a more decisive action on interest rates. In fact, most of the inflation pressure from tariffs takes time to reflect in the data, so it may be months before we know the impact of Trump's tariffs on price growth.
Will the inconspicuous government bond auction continue to shake the market? The U.S. will auction medium to short-term government bonds, while Japan will auction 40-year government bonds.
The result of the $20 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction held by the U.S. Treasury on Wednesday was disappointing, with weak demand leading to auction yields far exceeding expectations, triggering a drop in bond prices and a spike in yields. That day, U.S. stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the three major indices posting their worst single-day performance in a month, as the market sentiment faced a heavy blow from the bond market.
As a recent risk factor, next week's U.S. Treasury auction is skewed towards the medium to short term, so demand may not be as bleak as that of this week’s long-term Treasury Bonds. According to the schedule, $69 billion of 2-Year Treasury Bonds will be auctioned on Tuesday, $70 billion of 5-Year Treasury Bonds on Wednesday, and $44 billion of 7-Year Treasury Bonds on Thursday. Additionally, $28 billion of 2-Year floating-rate Treasury Bonds will also be issued on Wednesday.
Of course, whether U.S. Treasuries will encounter problems also depends on the situation in Japan. The Japanese Ministry of Finance will hold auctions for 40-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds on May 28, June 3, and June 5, respectively, with the June 3 auction of 10-year bonds being particularly important. Analysts point out that if the 10-year bond auction is still "weak" at that time, it may lead to a further overall rise in Japan's yield curve. The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, will also speak next Tuesday, and the market will closely watch for any descriptions regarding interest rate hikes.
The U.S. stock market is eagerly awaiting the "lifesaving pill"! Can NVIDIA's earnings report revive faith in AI?
NVIDIA, the semiconductor giant and barometer of artificial intelligence (AI), will be the focus on Wall Street next week with its earnings report. As one of the largest companies by Market Cap globally, NVIDIA's stock price has a significant impact on the benchmark stock index. NVIDIA is the last among the "seven giants" to announce its quarterly results. A survey by LSEG shows that Analysts estimate NVIDIA's first-quarter revenue to be $43.2 billion, with profits potentially soaring by about 45%.
Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B Riley Wealth, stated that after major tech companies hinted at strong AI-related spending earlier this quarter, NVIDIA may convey strong messages regarding its AI and enterprise spending plans. "NVIDIA can revive the market's enthusiasm for this theme," he said.
In addition, important participants in the AI Industry Chain, such as Salesforce, HP Inc, and Dell, will also release their Earnings Reports. Investors in Chinese stocks will welcome the Earnings Reports from PDD Holdings and Xiaomi, while companies like Hesai, EHang, and Kingsoft Cloud, which are part of the Technology sector, will disclose their latest performance.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's May meeting will be released, providing clues about future interest rate policy direction.
Next week, investors will also closely examine the FOMC meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting. The published minutes detail the FOMC's views on monetary policy, offering clues about future interest rate policy direction.
However, the minutes of the meeting are unlikely to provide any new clues, as most policymakers have expressed their views since the last meeting, maintaining a wait-and-see position. Nonetheless, if the tone of the minutes is slightly more hawkish than expected, it may somewhat support the dollar.
The Federal Reserve decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% during its monetary policy meeting on May 7, marking the third consecutive time this year of keeping rates steady. In the statement released after the meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated that 'uncertainty in the economic outlook has further increased' and explicitly mentioned the risks of high unemployment and high inflation having both risen. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a position of 'not rushing to cut rates', and when asked about the expectations of two rate cuts in March, he stated that no prediction can be made until June.
Economists generally believe that tariffs had little impact on the April price data, but the effects of trade policy are expected to become more evident as early as next month. Since there are almost no signs of significant pressure in the labor market, Federal Reserve officials are keen to keep interest rates stable until changes in trade policy are reflected in the data; the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting may continue to reinforce this viewpoint.
The Bitcoin 2025 Conference will be held in Las Vegas, where U.S. Vice President Vance will deliver a keynote speech.
The Bitcoin 2025 Conference will take place from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas. This super event, gathering technology giants, financial leaders, policymakers, and crypto pioneers, will not only redefine the future role of Bitcoin but may also become a barometer for digital currency regulation in the United States and globally. U.S. Vice President Vance, along with the CEO of Strategy and Robinhood, will deliver keynote speeches.
Among them, the most anticipated event is the speech on May 28 in Las Vegas, which will be the most shocking in the history of Digital Currency — US Vice President JD Vance will deliver a speech on "Innovation, Financial Sovereignty, and the Future of Bitcoin," becoming the first sitting Vice President to publicly support Bitcoin.
It is worth noting that Vance is known for his supportive stance on cryptocurrencies due to his active social media comments and voting record in favor of cryptocurrencies. According to related information, he disclosed in the mandatory annual report submitted for the 2022 calendar year in October 2023 that as of 2022, he owned Bitcoin worth between 0.1 million and 0.25 million dollars.
Related reading:The 2025 Bitcoin Conference is coming soon! U.S. Vice President Vance publicly supports it.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
May 26, Monday
Keywords: U.S. stock market is closed, MEITUAN-W performance, Powell's speech
On Monday, in terms of financial events, at 2:40 AM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a graduation speech at Princeton University's commencement.
In terms of earnings reports, Hong Kong stocks$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$、 $MOBVISTA (01860.HK)$ The results will be released, while in Post-Market Trading.$EHang (EH.US)$ The results will be released in Pre-Market Trading.$Hesai (HSAI.US)$ The results will be released in Post-Market Trading.
Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $PEGBIO CO-B (02565.HK)$ 、 $JIHONG CO (02603.HK)$ The lottery results will be announced.
In terms of market closure, the US stock market is closed for one day due to Memorial Day.
May 27, Tuesday
Keywords: XIAOMI-W, PDD Holdings performance, routine policy briefing by the State Council, remarks by the Governor of the Bank of Japan.
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May and the Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for May. Additionally, the US FHFA House Price Index month-on-month for March and the year-on-year S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index for March are also worth noting.
In terms of financial events, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda Kazuo, will also give a speech at 8 AM Beijing time; at 10 AM, the State Council Information Office will hold a regular press conference where the Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations, Ling Ji, along with responsible persons from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the State Administration for Market Regulation, will introduce measures to deepen the reform and innovation of national-level economic and technological development zones and answer questions from reporters.
In terms of earnings reports, the Hong Kong stock market. $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ Performance will be announced, USA stocks. $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ 、 $Zhihu (ZH.US)$ will release their performance results before the market opens.
Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $PEGBIO CO-B (02565.HK)$ 、 $JIHONG CO (02603.HK)$ Listed.
May 28, Wednesday
Keywords: NVIDIA performance, Bitcoin 2025 Conference, Japanese government bond auction
On Wednesday, regarding economic data, the United States will announce the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May.
In terms of financial events, U.S. Vice President Vance will speak at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's Financial Research Institute meeting. On Wednesday, attention can also be focused on the Japanese Ministry of Finance's auction of 500 billion yen 40-year government bonds. At 2 a.m. the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting.
In terms of earnings reports, the Hong Kong stock market. $KINGSOFT (03888.HK)$ The latest quarterly earnings report will be released. In terms of U.S. stocks, $21Vianet (VNET.US)$ $Kingsoft Cloud (KC.US)$ Earnings Reports will be released before Pre-Market Trading, and that day during Post-Market Trading, the world will once again迎来「NVIDIA Moment」.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ will cooperate with hard-core Technology stocks. $Salesforce (CRM.US)$、 $C3.ai (AI.US)$ Together we face the Earnings Reports challenge.
May 29th, Thursday.
Keywords: Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes, unemployment claims.
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the first quarter in the United States, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending May 24, and the month-on-month index of contract signings for existing homes in April.
In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the May monetary policy meeting minutes at 2 AM. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will participate in a fireside chat. Meanwhile, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a Q&A session.
In terms of earnings reports, the Hong Kong stock market. $CSPC PHARMA (01093.HK)$ Will announce performance. $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$、 $Li Auto (LI.US)$ Earnings Reports will be released during Pre-Market Trading; during the Post-Market Trading period. $Costco (COST.US)$、 $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$、 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$The latest Earnings Reports will be released.
Regarding new stocks, $SHOUHUI GROUP (02621.HK)$ The lottery results will be announced.
May 30, Friday
Keywords: U.S. Core PCE
On Friday, in the economic data, U.S. inflation data will be released, and investors should pay special attention to the month-on-month and year-on-year rates of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index for April, the year-on-year rate of the April Core PCE Price Index, and the final value of the one-year inflation expectation for May. Additionally, the U.S. personal spending month-on-month for April, the Chicago PMI for May, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May are also worth noting.
In terms of financial events, in the early morning of 2027, FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly participated in a fireside chat with the Oakland Rotary Club on economic matters. In the evening, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver an opening speech at an event and participate in a dialogue.
Regarding Earnings Reports, focus on Friday for the laser radar company. $ROBOSENSE (02498.HK)$ 。
Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $SHOUHUI GROUP (02621.HK)$ Listed today.
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In the new week, wishing mooers a successful investment!
Editor/Rocky
