MW The internet is being put to its greatest test, and it is passing (so far)

By Therese Poletti, MarketWatch

Increase in home usage as COVID-19 keeps families stuck inside has not broken networks, even as habits change greatly

In 1962, a computer scientist named J.C.R. Licklider wrote a series of memos in which he envisioned a global network of computers -- a "Galactic Network," he called it (https://www.internetsociety.org/internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet/)-- in what was the first written description of the internet as we know it today.

In the 58 years since that concept -- from a Defense Department-funded research project a few years later called ARPANET, to the introduction of the World Wide Web in the early 1990s -- the internet has grown into exactly what Licklider described: a globally interconnected set of computers through which everyone could quickly access data and programs from any site.

Today, in this global COVID-19 pandemic, the internet is our lifeline to the outside world. But it is also being put to its greatest test, as users spend all day working from home, live-streaming videoconferences and distance-learning during hours when internet service providers are used to having excess capacity, when people were previously at work or school.

"The numbers are staggering," said Mario Milicevic, a member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, or IEEE, and a communications systems engineer. "Millions of professors and students going online. In one household, you might have a piano lesson and a videoconference call going on at the same time. These are demands that we didn't have a month ago. This is traffic that is new and happening simultaneously."

The internet's vast infrastructure has, for the most part, been holding up so far. There are hiccups, such as a video buffering, but if the worst issue is latency or freezing up of video chats, then consider this test a success.

All internet service providers are reporting big double-digit jumps in their daily traffic. Executives at cable and broadband provider Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) said in a media briefing this week that its peak traffic is up 32% (http://www.marketwatch.com/articles/comcast-network-increased-traffic-downloads-upload-work-from-home-vieo-streaming-games-51585598273) from before the onset of the coronavirus outbreak, and traffic has increased 60% in some markets where the virus has hit especially hard, such as Seattle, Chicago and San Francisco. AT&T Inc. (T) said its core network traffic, which includes business, home broadband and wireless usage, was up 24% as of Monday, compared with the same day a month ago. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) said in its weekly report on Monday that its Fios TV service had an increase of 49% in usage, compared with the week before. Sonic Inc., a privately held Santa Rosa, Calif.-based internet service provider, said its traffic is up about 25%-30% from early March.

See also: The 5G rollout is already behind, and coronavirus could slow it even more (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-5g-rollout-is-already-behind-and-coronavirus-could-slow-it-even-more-2020-02-21)

Milicevic noted that the internet was designed to balance massive loads, and so far it is handling the onslaught. The internet is designed to prioritize certain types of data packets, such as video, with a lower priority for data packets such as email, to keep video flowing smoothly. But that's not always possible when so many consumers are accessing their providers at the same time. Cable providers are the most vulnerable to regional congestion, with potentially hundreds of homes sharing the same node on a network.

The worst time for consumers still is the peak evening hour, between 9 and 10 p.m., according to Sonic, typically a busy time for streaming videos and playing games. But now there's a spike in those activities, plus friends and families gathering for videoconferences to stay connected. A recent evening Zoom video chat I had with a couple of friends started getting very wonky toward the end, with frames freezing and a lot of delays in the conversation. But during business hours, one company in San Francisco -- Synapse, a product and design company -- said it recently hosted a lunchtime company meeting with 133 people working from home in three cities across the U.S. that went amazingly well on Zoom.

"We are seeing an increase in peak usage," said Dane Jasper, co-founder and chief executive of Sonic, which is trying to perform equipment upgrades earlier than previously planned.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Sonic's network, like most consumer services, had excess capacity during the day when everyone was typically at work. Now, that excess capacity is being used up. Live videoconferencing actually sucks up the most bandwidth, even more than streaming movies. A typical Zoom Video meeting uses 1 megabit per second, and 3 megabits per second in high definition.

See also: Zoom Video lurches from boom to backlash (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/zoom-video-lurches-from-boom-to-backlash-amid-privacy-issues-2020-04-01)

Most internet service providers are also doing what they can during the pandemic to upgrade their equipment on an as-needed basis. Chris Sambar, AT&T's executive vice president of technology operations, said the company is trying to keep an eye on the hot spots of increased cases of COVID-19, and for new shelter-in-place orders, so it can boost its services for those consumers in self-isolation.

"We are playing Whac-A-Mole all over the country," Sambar said. "We see an issue pop up in Dallas or SF, the engineers will go in overnight and they add an extra router or fiber connection. It all depends on what is needed."

He said that even though the network can handle a certain amount, when the usage spikes up, "you really need to add fiber-optic cables, then you have to add more routers, then you have to add another rack of computer equipment. It's a cascade of adding equipment." He said it happens quickly and AT&T has a lot equipment in its supply depots, though in some cases new equipment has to be ordered. "It's a little bit of both."

More from Therese: How not to kill your spouse and other tips for working from home from someone who hates it (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-not-to-kill-your-spouse-and-other-tips-for-working-from-home-from-someone-who-hates-it-2020-03-20)

For those looking to invest in tech during this pandemic, that could mean an opportunity to get in front of an equipment-refresh cycle. For example, Jeffries analyst George Notter said in a recent note that a new wave of traffic growth could be incrementally positive for some equipment providers, such as Ciena Corp. (CIEN) , Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) and CommScope Holding Co. Inc. (COMM) , as these companies have higher service-provider customer exposure in this environment.

"The additional work from home -- combined with changing peak busy-hour trends -- should help consume excess capacity in these networks and drive incremental equipment demand," Notter said in a note Wednesday, adding that among some of the positive effects he sees of the increased bandwidth consumption is that consumers with subpar or no broadband connections "will be motivated to improve service tiers to higher speeds."

Ultimately, the internet appears to be passing one of its toughest tests. But in the evening hours, it still is going to require a lot of patience from consumers with certain types of connections, as the masses go online -- alone in isolation but together on the internet.

-Therese Poletti; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 03, 2020 14:38 ET (18:38 GMT)

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