① Analysts at Goldman Sachs inferred from analyzing nearly 900 of Trump's posts on Social Media that his ideal psychological price range for oil in the USA is between $40 and $50 per barrel; ② Goldman Sachs analysts believe that due to Trump's preference for relatively low oil prices, prices might experience a slight drop in 2025-2026.
According to a report from Financial Associated Press on May 14 (Editor Liu Rui), since US President Trump took office, there has been an increasing recognition that his most notable governing style is to issue contradictory orders and act on impulse. However, such an unpredictable president often has a huge impact on the market with his every word and action. Therefore, guessing Trump's true intentions has become a major challenge for Wall Street analysts.
Recently, analysts at Goldman Sachs analyzed nearly 900 of Trump's posts on Social Media, inferring that the president's ideal psychological price for oil in the USA may be between $40 and $50 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs speculates on Trump's intentions.
Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and others wrote in the report that Trump "has always been very attentive to oil and the USA's Energy dominance, having posted nearly 900 tweets on relevant Topics."
"Trump's preference for Crude Oil seems to be around $40-50 per barrel."
During Trump's first term and the current term, he has been keen on commenting on OPEC+'s oil policies and the fluctuations of RBOB Gasoline prices on Social Media. During this time, oil prices—whether Global crude benchmark Brent or USA WTI—have frequently been influenced by Trump's statements. Additionally, Trump's remarks on sanctions against countries like Iran can also cause volatility in the oil market.
From his statements, it can be seen that on one hand, Trump hopes that oil prices can remain as low as possible to help reduce inflation in the USA; but on the other hand, he does not want prices to be so low that they hinder the growth of US oil production.
Analysts wrote in the report: "When Crude Oil prices are above $50 per barrel, Trump tends to call for lower oil prices (or celebrate the decline in oil prices); when prices are very low (Crude Oil prices below $30 per barrel), President Trump calls for rising oil prices."
Is there downward pressure on oil prices in the next two years?
Affected by Trump's trade tariffs and OPEC+ decisions to loosen supply restrictions faster than expected, Crude Oil prices have dropped by 12% so far this year. Nevertheless, after the release of the joint statement between the USA and China, Crude Oil prices have rebounded from the four-year closing low set earlier this month, reaching $63.41 per barrel at the time of writing.
Considering this level is significantly higher than Trump's possible psychological price range ($40-$50), Goldman Sachs analysts stated that Trump's "preference for lower oil prices in a relative sense supports our view that oil prices may slightly decline in 2025-2026."
At the same time, Goldman Sachs also pointed out that, given the recent easing of trade tensions between the USA and China, there is upward momentum in oil price expectations in the short term.
Editor/joryn
