This week's key agenda overview
Will the effects of tariff transmission become apparent? April's CPI and retail data from the USA are on the way.
Investors are about to face a busy week of economic data, with significant attention on USA inflation data, retail sales, and the University of Michigan's May consumer survey. The US CPI for April, released on Tuesday, will provide new insights into inflation trends; while the retail sales data for April, released on Thursday, and the preliminary May consumer survey from the University of Michigan on Friday will show to what extent tariff prospects have harmed consumer sentiment and spending.
Although the impact of tariffs on the economy is not yet clear, investors generally worry that import taxes will drive up prices and slow economic growth. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the USA's core CPI for April (excluding the volatile food and energy costs) is expected to rise by 0.3%. Last month's CPI data unexpectedly cooled, with March's CPI declining by 0.1% month-on-month. Analysts believe this positive trend may be difficult to sustain, especially after Trump implemented a comprehensive tariff policy; the USA government's imposition of tariffs and other policies may drive up inflation in the coming months, thereby affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
According to Bloomberg, the retail sales data will to some extent reflect consumers' concerns about inflation, the economy, and the job market; April retail sales are expected to remain largely flat, as demand for autos has cooled in previous periods. Analysts state that if the CPI is higher than expected, and retail sales fall short of expectations, it could trigger concerns about "stagflation"—where sluggish growth and unrelenting inflation intertwine, potentially placing pressure on the stock market.
A critical week for China's assets is approaching! JD.com, Tencent, and Alibaba lead the wave of Chinese concept stocks' earnings reports.
This week, the earnings report season for Chinese concept stocks will kick off, among which the giants of Chinese concept stocks.$JD.com (JD.US)$ /$JD-SW(09618.HK)$ 、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ /$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$ The results will be announced on May 13, 14, and 15, sequentially releasing the latest quarterly performance.
Currently, the market generally predicts that JD.com’s Q1 expected revenue is 290.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.74%; Tencent’s Q1 expected revenue is 175.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.06%; Alibaba’s Q4 FY25 expected revenue is 240 billion yuan, an increase of 8.17% compared to the same period last year.
And $NetEase (NTES.US)$ / $NTES-S(09999.HK)$ 、 $Tencent Music (TME.US)$ / $ Tencent Music-SW (01698.HK)$ 、 $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ / $KE Holdings-W(02423.HK)$ Other Chinese concept stocks will also announce their earnings.
In addition, the US Q1 Earnings Reports season continues, retail giants.$Walmart (WMT.US)$ The Earnings Reports will be released before Pre-Market Trading on Thursday, and the performance report is expected to provide important information about consumer behavior and the cost of imported Commodities. "Southeast Asian giants" $Sea(SE.US)$ , nuclear energy rising stars $Oklo Inc(OKLO.US)$ , Quantum Computing concept stocks $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US)$and other performances will also be released.
Trump will visit three Middle Eastern countries, possibly stirring up issues related to oil, AI, nuclear energy, and the Israel-Palestine negotiations.
According to the schedule released by the White House, President Trump is set to arrive in the Middle East on Tuesday, May 13, and will successively visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16. The White House press secretary stated that this visit aims to strengthen relations with Middle Eastern countries. It has been reported that in recent months, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have provided diplomatic support to the Trump administration, including assisting in ceasefire negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Media analysis suggests that Trump's visit is of significant importance, occurring amid geopolitical turmoil. Topics include the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations, oil, trade, investment agreements, and potentially new developments in advanced semiconductor exports and nuclear plans.
The Saudi-American Investment Forum is also scheduled to take place on the same day as Trump's visit (May 13) in Riyadh, with confirmed attendees including Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, Palantir's Alex Karp, and senior executives from major American companies such as Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet. David Sacks, the White House's chief of AI and Cryptos affairs, will also attend.
The Federal Reserve is convening the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, with Powell delivering a speech.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference. This conference will focus on research related to monetary policy and the economy, and is expected to provide academic perspectives for the Fed's commitment to review its monetary policy framework every five years.
At the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver the opening remarks and speak on the assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, along with Fed officials Adriana Kugler and Christopher Waller, will also attend the event.
The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the first quarter results of the Hang Seng Index series on Friday.
The Hang Seng Index Company announced that it will announce the results of the review of the Hang Seng Index series for the first quarter of 2025 on May 16, 2025 (Friday). Changes to the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on June 9, 2025 (Monday).
Putin proposed to resume direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey on May 15.
In addition to the financial sector, geopolitics is also worth paying attention to. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, on May 10 local time, the leaders of Ukraine and major European countries announced their agreement to an unconditional ceasefire for 30 days starting from May 12. Russia responded that it would consider the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and pointed out that it has its own position on the issue.
In addition, it was reported that Putin proposed to resume direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey on May 15, and he stated that he would discuss the issue of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations with the Turkish president. Putin reiterated that Russia is willing to engage in direct negotiations with Ukraine without setting any preconditions.
Regarding the situation between India and Pakistan, tensions have continued to escalate recently, despite both countries announcing agreement to a ceasefire. India claims that Pakistan has violated the ceasefire agreement, which Pakistan denies. According to recent foreign media reports, US President Trump posted on social media on May 11 that he would significantly increase trade with India and Pakistan.
Key earnings calendar for the new week.
【Related Reading】[Prize] The earnings season for Chinese concept stocks kicks off! Weekly earnings report summary (5.12-5.16)
May 12, Monday
Keywords: Richmond Fed President Barkin, Federal Reserve Governor Cook will give speeches.
On Monday, in terms of financial events, 2027.Federal Open Market CommitteeCommittee member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak; Fed Governor Kuggler will also address.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $NRG Energy(NRG.US)$ 、 $monday.com(MNDY.US)$ Will release earnings reports today; $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)$ 、 $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US)$ Will announce the latest quarterly performance in post-market trading.
May 13, Tuesday
Keywords: USA April CPI data, JD.com/Sea earnings reports
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the USA's April CPI data will be released, which may reflect the latest inflation trends; the USA's April NFIB small business confidence index will be announced at 18:00.
In terms of financial events, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the members of the Monetary Policy Meeting for April; USA President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $Sea(SE.US)$ 、 $JD.com (JD.US)$ 、 $Tencent Music (TME.US)$ Earnings Reports will be released in Pre-Market Trading. $Oklo Inc(OKLO.US)$ Will announce the latest quarterly performance in post-market trading.
Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $Green Tea Group (06831.HK)$ Subscription has ended.
May 14, Wednesday
Keywords: TENCENT/Cisco Earnings Reports
On Wednesday, regarding economic data, the API crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory data up to the week of May 9 in the USA will be released.
In terms of earnings reports, the Hong Kong stock market. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$The latest quarterly Earnings Reports will be released today. In the USA stock market, $Sony (SONY.US)$Performance will be announced before Pre-Market Trading in the USA; $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ Earnings will be released after Post-Market Trading.
May 15, Thursday
Keywords: USA April PPI data, USA April retail sales month-on-month, Alibaba Earnings Reports, Powell's speech
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the USA April retail sales month-on-month, April USA PPI data, number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 10th, May New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data.
In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will hold the second Thomas Laubach research conference, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver an opening speech to discuss the evaluation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a fireside chat.
In terms of Earnings Reports, $Walmart (WMT.US)$ 、 $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ 、 $NetEase (NTES.US)$ 、 $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ Earnings Reports will be released during Pre-Market Trading; Hong Kong stocks. $Geely(00175.HK)$ The performance will be announced today.
Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $Green Tea Group (06831.HK)$ announces the results of the lottery.
May 16, Friday
Keywords: USA May one-year inflation rate expected initial value, USA May University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial value, Hang Seng Index quarterly review results
On Friday, in terms of economic data, USA April total new housing starts annualized, USA April import price index month-on-month, USA May one-year inflation rate expected initial value, USA May University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index initial value and other data will be announced today.
In terms of financial events, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech. The company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for the first quarter of 2025.
In terms of earnings reports, the Hong Kong stock market. $CHINAGOLDINTL(02099.HK)$Earnings Reports will be released today; USA stocks $Mastech Digital(MHH.US)$、 $RBC Bearing(RBC.US)$ 、 $RBC Bearing(RBC.US)$ 、 $So-young International (SY.US)$ The performance will also be released.
Regarding new stocks, the Hong Kong stock market $Green Tea Group (06831.HK)$ Listed today.
Editor/jayden
