① Multiple leaks indicate that starting from 2026, Apple's iPhone release strategy will change: a basic model will be launched in the first half of the year, and in the second half, the Pro, ultra-thin model, and new foldable screens will be updated;
② Analysts state that these changes are mainly influenced by competition in the China market, where releasing a phone only once a year creates too long a marketing gap.
According to a leaked internal memo from last year, Apple's hardware chief, John Ternus, boldly claimed that the current product roadmap for the iPhone is "the most ambitious ever." This week's leaks finally provide insight into what Apple's "ambition" looks like.
According to information revealed this week by two well-known tech leak sources—tech analyst Ming-Chi Kuo and senior tech journalist Wayne Ma—starting with the iPhone 18, Apple will enter a state of "releasing new phones twice a year."
As for the iPhone 17 series, which is set to be launched this September, it has already been extensively "spoiled": including the basic model iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, as well as the brand new ultra-thin model iPhone 17 Air. Major upgrades include "high refresh rate screens across the board" and a change in the shape of the camera bump on the back.
This week's latest news has informed investors about the product updates they can expect in the coming years.
According to leaks, Apple's entry-level models will also transition to an annual update cycle. After the release of the iPhone 16e in February of this year, the iPhone 17e will be launched early next year.
The fall release event in 2026 will unveil four models, with the iPhone 18 Air being the same size as the 17 Air, and the "Dynamic Island" design of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max potentially changed to a "pill-shaped hole" in the corner. Of course, the most anticipated is Apple's first folding screen phone, the iPhone 18 Fold.
It is worth noting that the iPhone 18 will not be released until early 2027, alongside the iPhone 18e, marking a shift in the release schedule for the base model to the first half of the year.
Thus, there will be a total of six new iPhones in 2027. Among the four new models released in the second half of 2027, the iPhone 19 Air will feature a larger screen. The camera hole for the Pro models may be completely eliminated, while the iPhone 19 Fold will be the second generation of the folding screen model.
In recent years, as the iterations of iPhone products have fallen into a lack of impact, sales have basically stagnated. Although Apple still sells hundreds of millions of phones each year, the lack of growth remains a risk hanging over Apple Shareholders.
Ming-Chi Kuo stated that Apple's change to a strategy of releasing iPhones twice a year is mainly influenced by the intense competition in the China market. Competitors in China typically release new phones in the first half of the year, so if Apple also launches a new iPhone, it will minimize the marketing gap.
Moreover, as competition becomes increasingly fierce, Apple will need to offer more products such as ultra-thin new devices and folding screen phones. If all are packed into the September launch, it will scatter marketing resources. The shipping situation over the past few years also shows that the shipping proportion of the Pro series has been continuously increasing after the launch, which has already squeezed the budget models.
For Apple, changing the release roadmap is only part of the narrative. To significantly boost upgrade demand, Apple also needs to present compelling software and AI updates. Next month at WWDC, investors will hear more news regarding this.
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