Starting next week, a new round of earnings reports for Chinese Network Technology stocks will officially kick off.
$JD.com (JD.US)$ / $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ 、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ / $BABA-W (09988.HK)$Star network technology stocks will successively release their reports.
At the beginning of the year, with a series of previously announced stimulus policies and the rise of DeepSeek, Chinese concept network technology stocks saw significant gains, with Alibaba and TENCENT reaching new highs in March. In early April, Trump's tariff policy triggered severe turmoil in Global Capital Markets, causing a major drop in Chinese concept stocks; however, the stock prices subsequently oscillated and rose again.
Currently, the capital markets are once again focusing on Chinese concept stocks. Will this earnings report season bring surprises to the market?
According to market expectations, Futu has compiled performance forecasts for some popular Chinese concept network technology stocks for investors' reference:
Among them, JD.com, TENCENT, and Alibaba will be the first to announce their results, scheduled to release their latest quarterly earnings on May 13th, 14th, and 15th respectively.
Currently, the market generally predicts that JD.com's Q1 expected revenue will be 290.589 billion yuan, an increase of 11.74% year-on-year; and the expected EPS is 5.98 yuan, an increase of 31.94% year-on-year.
Orient stated that JD.com will continue to maintain a double-digit steady growth, with national subsidy benefits continuing to be released. In terms of JD.com retail, the expected revenue is 253.57 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. With the release of national subsidies, the proportion of high-margin powered categories is increasing, coupled with enhanced category pricing power, the retail division's profit margin continues the growth trend of 24 years. As for JD.com's logistics, the expected revenue is about a 10% year-on-year increase.
In terms of new business, JD.com takeout officially launched on February 11. Tianfeng's overseas team believes that the takeout business expansion further enriches user experience and merchant supply. As the order volume increases, the company may increase investment; however, with the steady release of profits from JD.com’s main retail business, the overall profit impact on the group is relatively controllable.
TENCENT's expected revenue for Q1 is 175.546 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06% year-on-year; the expected EPS is 5.56 yuan, an increase of 27.4% year-on-year.
In terms of games, CICC expects TENCENT's domestic game revenue in Q1 to grow by 16% year-on-year, and international revenue to grow by 14% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival of 2025, TENCENT's five highest-revenue games benefited from gameplay and social activity updates, with DAU higher than the same period last year. According to SensorTower data, from January to February 2025, TENCENT's established "evergreen games" such as "Peace Elite", "Honor of Kings", and "Gold Shovel Battle" achieved notable year-on-year growth.
In terms of advertising, AI brings efficiency improvements, and the growth of video account loading rates and user durations continue to be the core variables contributing to TENCENT's year-on-year advertising revenue growth. CICC expects TENCENT's advertising revenue in Q1 to grow by 15.6% year-on-year.
In terms of enterprise services, although TENCENT has made a large number of computing power order purchases in the past couple of quarters, due to delivery cycles, and given that the Cloud Computing ToB IaaS business may not be TENCENT's most important strategic focus in the AI era in the long run, CICC expects TENCENT's Q1 cloud computing revenue growth to not see significant upward adjustments, with a projected year-on-year growth of 12% in Q1 enterprise services revenue.
Alibaba's expected revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 25 is 240 billion yuan, an increase of 8.17% compared to the same period last year; the EPS is 9.24 yuan, an increase of 610.78% year-on-year.
According to Institutions' predictions, the total value of goods traded (GMV) for the Taotian Group in the fourth fiscal quarter is expected to grow year-on-year by about 5%, mainly benefiting from the domestic "trade-in" policy stimulus and improved platform Operation efficiency. Notably, the growth rate of Customer Management Revenue (CMR) significantly exceeds GMV growth: Macquarie predicts a year-on-year growth of 10%, while Nomura Securities forecasts an increase of 9.7%, primarily due to structural optimization of the platform's commission rate.
In addition, multiple Institutions predict that its core e-commerce business will continue to experience robust growth, while the Cloud Computing business shows accelerating development driven by AI. Breakthroughs in AI technology are injecting new momentum into Alibaba Cloud. Sealand expects Cloud Computing revenue growth to rise to 16% in the fourth fiscal quarter, while Morgan Stanley forecasts an increase of up to 18%.
In response to the recent USA 'reciprocal tariff' policy impact, research from Sealand International shows that Alibaba's platform sells about 50 billion dollars of USA goods annually, accounting for less than 5% of the total transaction volume. Analysis indicates that consumers may turn to domestic brands as substitutes, further weakening the actual impact of tariff policies on the platform.
What will be the future trend of Secondary Listings on HKEX?
Since the USA implemented the 'reciprocal tariff' policy on April 2, market volatility has increased. Despite the impact of tariffs, HSBC China believes that Secondary Listings on HKEX will still maintain resilient performance, mainly based on:
1) Foreign capital (especially American Institutions) have conservative Hold Positions in Chinese Assets, so the selling pressure is relatively small;
2) As the halo of 'American exceptionalism' gradually fades, global investors are expected to further diversify their concentrated positions in the US stock market, with the unexpected development of Chinese Technology and AI prompting the Chinese stock market to become an important allocation market;
3) Chinese Stocks still have significant valuation discounts compared to other Emerging Markets Assets, and the domestic consumption orientation of the Chinese stock market exceeds investors' expectations;
4) With the introduction of various domestic stimulus measures by the Chinese government, it may effectively hedge some negative impacts of tariffs; many enterprises are expected to perform well, and stock market performance may exceed what GDP data indicates.
In addition, the USA Treasury Secretary stated in April that the possibility of forcing delisting of Chinese companies listed in the USA could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations between the two countries. In response, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po stated that Hong Kong has established a regulatory framework to facilitate companies that have already been listed overseas to do so in Hong Kong.Dual ListingYesterday, the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, expressed support for high-quality Chinese companies returning to the domestic and Hong Kong markets.
Institutions expect that the potential impact this time is more controllable than in the past, as many large Chinese companies have already.Dual ListingMorgan Stanley's report indicates that 80% of the market cap of Chinese ADRs have been dual-listed in Hong Kong, with overall Chinese ADRs accounting for about 25% of the MSCI Chinese Index. It is expected that even if delisting of Chinese companies occurs, the long-term impact on the Chinese stock market would be limited. The Hong Kong market can long-term supplement the trading volume lost from the USA market, especially as large enterprises are likely to meet the eligibility criteria for inclusion in the Stock Connect.
Previously, Futu News had compiled a list related to Secondary Listings on HKEX.
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Editor/jayden
