It's shaping up to be a tough period for Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600612), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Lao Feng Xiang delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (CN¥18b) and statutory earnings per share (CN¥1.17) falling badly short of analyst expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lao Feng Xiang's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥53.4b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 9.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥65.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.36 in 2025. Overall, while there's been a substantial drop in revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that after the latest results, the market believes revenue is more important.
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of CN¥53.72, with Lao Feng Xiang seemingly executing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lao Feng Xiang at CN¥64.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥41.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Lao Feng Xiang's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 13% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.0% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Lao Feng Xiang is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
We have estimates for Lao Feng Xiang from its eleven analysts out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Lao Feng Xiang's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
