No one is an island.

With the rapid decline of the international epidemic in the past few days, the confirmed data of the United States and Italy have rapidly surpassed China, and all kinds of bad news have spread frequently, so in the comment area of social media, there have been a lot of disturbing remarks, including ridicule, satire and even schadenfreude. In this regard, I would like to say--

These people don't know the rules of the modern world.They don't know what the plight of the epidemic abroad means to China, they don't know what we're dealing with--

一

The first thing I need to say is--The bad news we see is not the whole truth.；

We need to clarify a basic logic-- in terms of transmission, bad news always spreads faster and more widely than good news. For example, during the outbreak in South Korea and Japan, our official account articles try their best to play up their stupid coping strategies, panicked people and chaotic order.

But only two weeks later, we found that the epidemic in South Korea and Japan has actually been effectively controlled, so how many media are now reporting on how South Korea and Japan stabilize the epidemic in an orderly manner? Almost none, becauseOrderly is not news, no degree of dissemination, can not get 100000 + reading；

Yes, the epidemic tragedies in Italy, the United States and the United Kingdom spread on social media are all true, but please note that this is not the whole truth--

Our media tend to selectively ignore those aspects where they are going well, because they are not readable, too common, too common, too unnews.

Don't think that what you see is the truth, the truth is always more complicated than what you see, take a closer look at the following two pictures:

二

When we gloat, maybe we should think back to what we've just been through in the last two months--

Yes, we were very passive at the beginning of the epidemic, when the media in individual countries deliberately laughed at and insulted China.In the twinkling of an eye, I realized that China is so important to the normal operation of the world.——

1. Apple Inc has restricted purchases all over the world, because our Foxconn can no longer produce at full capacity.

2. Lobsters in Australia can't be sold because Chinese restaurants closed during the epidemic.

3. Thailand's tourism industry pressed the pause button because Chinese tourists are isolated at home and dare not go out.

4. The Hyundai car plant in South Korea stopped production because the supply chain plant in Shandong, China, stalled.

5. ITU telecom Barcelona was cancelled because Chinese consumer electronics brands were unable to participate:

........

China is the world's largest trading country, accounting for 12% of the world's trade volume. China is the largest exporter of 33 countries and the largest source of imported goods for 65 countries. At the same time, China is also the largest trading partner of 120 countries in the world.

On Christmas Day in 2004, American journalist Sarah suddenly found that 25 of the 39 Christmas presents she received were "made in China". On a whim, Sarah decided to lead the family to try not to buy Chinese products for one year from January 1, 2005.

So she started a real and difficult adventure, and after countless ironic sufferings, she returned to the embrace of made in China, and she wrote the experience into a best-selling book, "A year made in China."

It was not until the epidemic was urgent that the United States found that 45% of the penicillin used in their country was made in China, while ibuprofen was almost 100% made in China.

Without being made in China, the world cannot function properly. The world needs us, and we also need the world--

三

When you are gloating over the epidemic in various countries and the collapse of US stocks, maybe we don't know what it means for us next.While watching the fire from the other side, the fire is about to come.；

Maybe you don't have relatives and classmates in the United States, you don't buy American stocks, and the epidemic in the United States seems to have nothing to do with you, but the rules of operation in this world are not so simple--Us stocks have plummeted, and Chinese companies listed on US stocks have undoubtedly suffered heavy losses.：

In the past month, Ping An Insurance is down 13%, Weibo Corp is down 19%, BABA is down 10%, and Baidu, Inc. is down 21%. If the stock price falls, the company needs to improve its financial results to maintain the stock price.

When the demand of the epidemic is restrained, layoffs are one of the few options to reduce costs.Calculate the decline of your company's stock price during the epidemic, maybe unemployment is not that far away from us.

A simple logic-- when the international epidemic is in deep trouble, international consumers will spend less, and the direct result is that our factory orders in Dongguan will be withdrawn and our workers will go home unemployed; compared with the same period last year

China's exports fell 17% in the first two months of this year, and order returns and factory closures are really happening.

The global industrial chain can be divided into three levels: the United States, Europe and Britain are economies with services as the main export-- more technology and brands, China, Japan and Germany mean economies with middle-and high-end manufacturing as the main export-- more products and physical objects, while other countries mainly export upstream products-- more oil and raw materials.

Every country is an indispensable part of the global industrial chain, and the global supply chain is a domino. Any fall will affect the whole body.

Even Netflix has to reduce the code rate during the epidemic, and the American TV series we watch will not be so clear.

四

The global economy has long been a whole.——

In February, Daegu, South Korea, was the hardest hit by the epidemic. The fall of Daegu immediately affected global smartphone production, because Samsung and LG, which account for 94% of the global market share of OLED screens, are in the Kameo Industrial Park, 20 minutes' drive from Daegu.

The 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan caused an earthquake in the world's consumer electronics industry.At that time, the revenue of Japan's chip industry was 63.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 20.8% of the global semiconductor market. Numerous brand factories, such as Freescale, Fujitsu, Toshiba and Sony Group Corp, were near the epicenter.

Global memory chip prices jumped 25% in 2013 after the explosion at Hynix's fab in Wuxi, south Korea's second-largest chip maker.

In 2015, the earthquake in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, halted production at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Zhongke and Nanke factories, causing the global price of logic chips to rise by 10% to 20%.

The world is a whole-under the nesting, there are finished eggs.；

Do you remember the US financial crisis in 2008?

When a migrant worker in Hunan lost his job and got on the train and returned to his hometown, he may not have thought that his unemployment was caused by auto workers in Detroit who had no money to buy a house but could still apply for loans from greedy banks.

五

The situation we face may be more serious than we think--

The Secretary-General of the United Nations pointed out that at present, the global economic recession is inevitable, and the COVID-19 epidemic may cause 25 million people to lose their jobs. The International Labour Organization said that the global pandemic is not only a global public health crisis, but also a severe employment crisis and economic crisis.他The worst-case scenario is that the global economic growth rate will decline by 8% this year.；

What is the concept that China International Capital Corporation lowered China's real GDP growth rate from 6.1 per cent to 2.6 per cent in 2020?

It is the lowest growth rate in China in the past 43 years since 1977."the most difficult year for China's economy" is not empty talk, it will become the most real reality this year

When Sars broke out in 2003, China accounted for only 4% of the world economy, compared with 16% today.The locomotive of world economic growth is about to stop.；

Maybe you can't feel it now, because the epidemic abroad is far from reaching its peak. Consider that it took China more than two months to stabilize the epidemic with such a stringent defense strategy. With the current foreign strategy, it will undoubtedly take longer than us, and the scope of influence will also be more advertising. Some people on Weibo Corp predict that there are only 24 days to go before 1 million people die worldwide.

In the next few months, the world will only get worse, and we will keep hearing bad news. Be prepared for the hard times.

Jin Kaiyu, a tenured professor at the London School of Economics, is even more pessimistic:

「We may be facing a Great Depression, not a recession.It was in 1931, not in 2009.

There is a big difference between a crisis and a depression, one is crisis, the other is depression. One is the loss of 5% of GDP, and the other is the loss of 50% of GDP. Depression and crisis are not the same, and I think the severity may be about 10 times that of 2008. "

According to the Asia-Pacific Aviation Center (CAPA), an aviation consultancy, if the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic is not effectively contained and the aviation continues to controlAll airlines around the world will go bankrupt in May this year.；

The world is at the crossroads of economic crisis. Are you ready?

六

Another fact that cannot be ignored is:China's national interests are not entirely domestic.We have the direct interests of many Chinese people abroad, and China's direct outbound investment exceeded 110 billion US dollars in 2019.

We built high-speed railways, canals and ports around the world-the Nicaraguan Grand Canal, which is longer than the Panama Canal, was built by the Chinese, we rented Darwin Port in Australia, and we invested more than $1 billion to develop Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. We built the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway in Russia.

Now, the whole world has China's interests, and the international epidemic breaks out.There is no doubt that these super projects will be directly affected.；

We haveThe largest number of overseas students in the worldIn 2018 alone, the number of Chinese students studying abroad reached 662100, they were in North America, Europe and Australia. In the centers of many affected countries, the outbreak has directly affected their survival and safety overseas, and many Chinese in the United States are already buying guns to prevent accidents.

We have a lot of companies.Not only export, but also directly conduct business overseasWhere there is a market, there is an active figure of Chinese people. in 2018, Chinese people made 149 million overseas trips, exceeding that of other countries, including the United States. The outbreak not only infected countless Europeans. It also infected Wu Lei, who plays football in Europe.

Our country has long been integrated into this complex world system.Chinese people, Chinese companies and Chinese goods have long become an indispensable part of the overseas world. We and the world-- both prosper and lose.

七

In the book "the World is flat", the author puts forward a persuasive theory--"Dell Theory"That is, when two countries are closely linked through a wide supply chain, the two countries will not go to war

Dell computer production supply chain spans many countries-processors come from Intel Corp's factories in the Philippines, Malaysia or China, and memory comes from workshops in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan; motherboards are produced by factories in Taiwan and South Korea in the mainland; batteries come from Japanese factories in Mexico or Malaysia; computer bags are processed by a factory in Dongguan Part of Dell's customer service team is in India.

Today, maybe this theory can be modified to"iPhone Theory""A Global Journey to iPhone" describes in more detail how the world's best-selling mobile phone connects supply chains in multiple countries.

The Dell theory holds that countries in the supply chain will think twice before any possible war potential-Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, North Korea. These countries are not part of any global supply chain.

If the world's supply chain network is destroyed as a result of the epidemic, the world will become more dangerous.

八

Our rapid development over the past 40 years is due to the fact that we had a peaceful, stable and mild external environment after the fall of the Berlin Wall and after 9 / 11.

Today, this external environment is changing.This subtle change did not start after the outbreak, but intensified the fragmentation of the world after the outbreak.

The United States pursues the isolationist policy of "America first", the black swan of Brexit appeared in Europe, even the 27 countries in Italy turned a deaf ear to the European Union for help this time, while Germany seized the Swiss mask. The unity of Europe becomes a fairy tale.

Today, the outbreak of the epidemic makesLeftist political forces in all countries are calling for "supply chain backflow".Seems determined to decouple from the whole world

"Globalization as we know it is coming to an end," said Niebulit, chief executive of Chatham House, a famous think-tank, worried.

The world is becoming more and more torn apart, and no country can benefit from a torn world

九

A student once asked the famous anthropologist Margaret. Meade, a question--What on earth is the first symbol of human civilization?The answers that many students guess are fish hooks, stone tools, fire and so on.

Meade's answer, however, went beyond everyone's guess, saying that the first sign of human civilization was that we had discoveredA piece of humerus that is broken and then healed.

Meade further explained--

If the thigh bone fracture is extremely dangerous in the animal kingdom, if the animal breaks its thigh, it actually means death, because it cannot escape the danger, cannot go to the river to drink water or hunt food, and it will soon be eaten by wandering beasts.

The healed humerus shows that someone spent a long time taking care of the injured person-- taking care of the wound, providing food, protecting him from attack.

In the end, Meade concluded meaningfully--Helping others from difficulties is the starting point of civilization!

When we gloat over the epidemic abroad, don't forget that our civilization begins by helping each other.

Finally, let's review the famous poem "No one is an isolated Island"

"No one is an island."

No one is an island.

Alone in the sea

Everyone is like a little piece of dirt

Connected to the whole land.

If a piece of soil is washed away by the sea

Europe will lose a corner.

It's like a promontory.

Like a manor.

Whether it's yours or your friend's.

No matter who dies,

It's all part of me dying.

Because I am included in the concept of human beings.

therefore,

Don't ask for whom the bell tolls.

The knell tolls for you.