Morgan Stanley expects that by 2050, a total of 1 billion humanoid robots will be deployed globally, with annual revenue reaching 4.7 trillion dollars, nearly double the total revenue of the top 20 global Auto Manufacturers in 2024. China's policy support, technological advancements, and manufacturing foundation place it in a leading position in the field of humanoid robots, especially in the Hardware supply chain.
Author of this article: Bu Shuqing.
Humanoid robots are gradually moving from science fiction to reality, becoming the focal point of Global Technology competition and economic development. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the Global humanoid robot market revenue will approach 5 trillion USD, with China in a uniquely strong position in the development and promotion of humanoid robots.
According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's global humanoid robot model shows that 1 billion humanoid robots will be cumulatively deployed globally, with annual revenue reaching 4.7 trillion dollars. This scale is nearly double the total revenue of 2.5 trillion dollars for the 20 largest Auto Manufacturers in the world in 2024. It is worth noting that this estimate only includes final equipment sales, and if the supply chain, maintenance, and support network are considered, the market size may be larger.
Morgan Stanley believes that China has a unique advantage in the field of humanoid robots, especially in AI technology and robot manufacturing. China's policy support, technological advancements, and manufacturing foundation position it in a leading role in the humanoid robot sector.
The report states that while it is too early to announce who will ultimately become the 'smart humanoid robot champion', significant changes in manufacturing capability, Education, and national policy are necessary if the USA hopes to maintain competitiveness in this crucial area.
The top 100 Siasun Robot&Automation, with China leading in hardware.
Morgan Stanley has proposed the "Top 100 Humanoid Robots" - a list of publicly traded companies that are currently significant participants or have major connections to the humanoid robot market. As of April 25, 2025, the "Top 100 Humanoid Robots" has risen by 4.5% this year (on an equal-weight basis), still outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 10.5 percentage points.
Notably, among the top 10 performing companies, 7 are from China, mostly "hardware" companies, with their stock prices rising based on expectations of considerable humanoid robot-related revenue driven by government support, new investments, and demand from traditional manufacturing industries (such as Autos, Aviation, etc.) in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley's previous report divides the humanoid robot Industry Chain into three core segments: "Brain", "Body", and "Integrator". The "Body" primarily includes the Sensor, Battery, Electric Machine, and reducer hardware supply chain segments, with China dominating this segment.
Tariffs and humanoid robots - short-term cost increase, limited long-term impact.
In the short term, due to global trade friction caused by Trump, the material costs for humanoid robots in the USA are expected to rise significantly, and US robot developers may turn to Japan/South Korea for sourcing parts to cope with lower tariffs.
However, Morgan Stanley believes that tariffs are unlikely to affect the long-term adoption prospects of humanoid robots in the USA. Currently, many humanoid robot components such as screws, reducers, Electric Machines, and Batteries from Asia have almost no alternatives in the USA.
The report stated:
Although component costs may be high in the short term, we expect large-scale adoption to occur only in the 2030s and 2040s.
In fact, any new investment in USA manufacturing will significantly increase the demand for humanoid robots and other advanced robots to bridge the labor cost gap between the USA and other low-cost countries.
Dissecting the 5 trillion market, 1 billion units deployed.
The report suggests that technological advancements will drive the popularization of humanoid robots, especially in commercial and home environments:
By 2036, approximately 23.7 million humanoid robots (about 2% of the total 1 billion units) will be adopted globally.
By 2050, there will be about 14 million in low-income countries, about 0.2045 billion in lower-middle-income countries, about 0.5043 billion in upper-middle-income countries, and about 0.2964 billion in high-income countries (including the USA).
Morgan Stanley expects the average price of humanoid robots to decline significantly:
High-income countries: Assuming an average price of 0.2 million USD in 2024, decreasing to 0.05 million USD in 2040, and 0.0443 million USD in 2050.
Middle-high / Middle-low / Low-income countries: Approximately 0.049 million USD (about 0.35 million RMB) in 2024, decreasing to about 0.0145 million USD (about 0.1 million RMB) by 2050.
The report states that assuming a 6-year replacement cycle, global humanoid robot annual revenue is expected to reach 211 billion USD by 2035, 1.2 trillion USD by 2040, and 4.7 trillion USD by 2050.
