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比特币正在变成“数字黄金”吗?话别说太早!

Is Bitcoin becoming "digital Gold"? It's too early to say!

Golden10 Data ·  Apr 29 17:52

Bitcoin bulls have long felt frustrated as they see the way that Cryptos are traded resembles Stocks and Other Assets that are considered high-risk, rather than a store of value like Gold. Now, some believe they are seeing initial signs of a shift.

They believe that Bitcoin, as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset with a fixed supply, should be traded more like Gold, able to maintain its value during extreme market volatility. However, over the years it has failed to do so, often fluctuating in sync with the US stock market.

However, Eric Rose, the executive director of digital assets at StoneX, pointed out in a phone interview that Bitcoin has shown relative strength in the past few weeks compared to US stocks and the USD, both of which fell due to uncertainties around Trump's trade policies that led to turmoil in the global financial markets.

Bitcoin has performed strongly, even as US Treasuries—traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets during turbulent times—also experienced significant sell-offs earlier this month before stabilizing. Rose stated, "I would describe Bitcoin's trading behavior relative to other assets over the past two weeks as 'strange,' but not bad." Historically, it is rare to see stocks and the USD decline simultaneously, and it is also uncommon for Bitcoin to rise when the stock market falls sharply.

However, Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide Financial, stated that this does not mean Bitcoin has suddenly joined the ranks of traditional safe-haven assets.

"I'm still hesitant to say that Bitcoin has become a store of value or a defensive asset, but Gold is clearly a defensive asset," Hackett said. "Experiences from the past few years indicate that Bitcoin is more of a risk-sensitive asset rather than a safe-haven asset, until recently when it began to change."

He added that Bitcoin's recent strength may be driven by some unsustainable unique factors, such as the continuous purchase of Bitcoin by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). According to recent regulatory filings, this software company now viewed as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy purchased 6,556 Bitcoin for $0.5558 billion between April 14 and April 20. Hackett believes it is "premature" for Bitcoin bulls to claim that it has become a store of value, but this trend is worth noting.

Rose noted that for skeptics to ultimately view Bitcoin as a substitute for Gold, the cryptocurrency needs to undergo a longer and sustained period of independent performance, rather than fluctuating in sync with other high-risk assets.

According to FactSet data, Bitcoin has risen by 7.1% over the past month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 6%. The ICE USD index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of currencies, has fallen by 4.7% in the same period. However, Bitcoin still lags behind Gold, which saw Futures prices increase by 11% over the past month. Gold Futures hit a historical high on Tuesday, briefly surpassing $3,500, while Bitcoin is still 14.5% lower than its historical high of $109,225 set on January 20.

Ross believes, "Bitcoin may have reached a certain level of Institutional adoption, where people no longer simply view it as a CSI 300 High Beta Technology stock but start to focus on its intrinsic value." High Beta stocks refer to stocks with volatility greater than the overall market.

The launch of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund last year opened up avenues for more Financial Institutions to invest in Cryptos, and a more favorable regulatory environment may have encouraged Institutional adoption. Ross pointed out that as the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies may weaken the dollar's status as a reliable "safe-haven asset" and its role as a de facto global reserve currency, investors may see Bitcoin as a potential refuge amid market turmoil.

I believe people will look for a global asset that is not priced in any currency and exists independently," Ross said.

However, Joe McCann, founder and Chief Investment Officer of crypto investment firm Asymmetric, stated that the narrative driving Bitcoin prices remains complex. McCann believes that while Bitcoin may benefit from increased liquidity, it is less likely to be impacted by economic downturns since it does not have profits or cash flow like companies do.

He added that if the Federal Reserve and other central banks further cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, it could drive Bitcoin prices up regardless of global economic performance. According to the CME FedWatch tool, federal funds futures traders still expect a greater than 96% chance of at least two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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