Variables still exist.
Today (April 29), marks the 100th day of President Trump's tenure in the USA.
In the first hundred days of his second term, Trump has swung his tariff club wildly, creating chaos worldwide.
This crazy 100 days has also earned him the title of 'the worst president in the USA in nearly 80 years.'
Currently, in order to mitigate the impacts of tariffs, it is reported that Trump will adjust the auto tariffs policy.
As a result, today, A-shares in Hk related to Auto Parts, Electric Vehicles and other concepts collectively showed a 'buzz.'
As of the report, stocks such as Jusaolong, Shenzhen Silver Basis Technology, Miracle Automation Engineering, and Zhejiang Founder Motor have all hit the daily limit, while LEAPMOTOR surged over 7%, NIO rose over 4%, and Geely and Li Auto also experienced a rise.
Withdrawal of auto tariffs?
Latest reports from US media indicate that Trump may withdraw or adjust auto tariffs.
Previously, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported autos, which officially took effect on April 3; additionally, he planned to impose a 25% tariff on auto parts starting May 3.
Now the new policy willavoid the implementation of layered tariffs on imported autos(that is, adding auto tariffs on top of the steel and aluminum tariffs).
At the same time, Lower the tax rates on foreign Auto Parts used for domestic production in the USA.。
After the adjustment, Auto Manufacturers can receive a maximum tax refund of up to 3.75% of the value of the cars produced domestically in the USA within a year, dropping to 2.5% in the second year, and the refund policy will be completely canceled thereafter.
According to reports, this policy has retroactive effect, which means that the cumulative tariffs already paid by car companies are expected to be refunded.
Market analysis believes that these measures are aimed at giving Auto Manufacturers time to move the Auto Parts supply chain back to the USA.
USA Auto Manufacturers expect that Trump will take action before heading to Michigan for a rally in the suburbs of Detroit on Tuesday night.
Coincidentally, it marks his 100th day in office.
In the past three months, Trump has signed over 130 executive orders, causing extreme chaos in domestic and foreign affairs in the USA.
Although Trump repeatedly claims that he is the most popular president in American history, both his political performance and the financial markets have given him poor ratings.
According to the evaluation by Time magazine, the first 100 days of Trump's administration were one of the most chaotic periods in American history.
Of course, the boomerang quickly returned, and Trump received the worst 100-day approval ratings ever.
According to the latest poll, Trump's approval rating after 100 days in office is 39%, setting a record for the lowest approval rating for U.S. presidents in their first 100 days in the past 80 years.
What is the impact?
Why is Trump so persistent about auto tariffs?
Manufacturing is returning.
According to the White House, this is expected to bring in 100 billion dollars for the USA.
With the implementation of this policy, multiple countries including Canada and Mexico launched counterattacks, causing a near-disruption of the Global auto supply chain.
Opposition within the USA is also growing stronger. Recently, six major automotive industry organizations in the USA jointly opposed the imposition of tariffs on Auto Parts.
Morgan Stanley had estimated that a 25% tariff could lead to an increase in the Average Cost of cars by $6,000, equivalent to a 10% to 12% rise in car prices.
Domestically, the "tariff war" has caused significant shocks to American imported cars.
According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first three months of this year, 0.095 million imported cars were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 39%; imports of vehicles from the USA decreased by 66% year-on-year.
Previously, Tesla China stopped offering new orders for Model X and Model S vehicles, while some models from BMW and Mercedes produced in the USA also faced "pauses" and "price hikes".
In contrast, the impact of the "tariff war" on China's current auto exports is minimal.
Data shows that in 2024, China's auto exports to the USA will only be 0.116 million units, accounting for only 1.81% of China's total auto export volume.
Additionally, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in the first quarter of this year, China's auto exports reached 1.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%.
In the wake of market turbulence and fierce lobbying from companies and other countries, the latest concession of Trump's trade policy is to weaken the impact of auto tariffs.
As for the A-shares in Hk market, while the expectations of tariffs have eased, uncertainties still exist.
HTSC points out that the essential nature of Trump's tariff policy, which combines purposefulness and instrumentality, has not changed, but the accelerated 'de-dollarization' and the pressure of price fluctuations in US assets may force adjustments in the policy implementation. As the market gradually becomes 'desensitized', the weight of tariffs in pricing may decrease temporarily, but the rhythm and力度仍存变数 before progress in US-China trade negotiations.
