Track the entire lifecycle of the main Sector.
Summary: ① Last Friday, the market continued to show differentiated consolidation, with insufficient incremental capital causing rapid rotation of hot sectors and a sharp decline in high-priced stocks, waiting for the emergence of a new main line; ② Electric Power stocks surged last Friday, over 10 stocks hit the upper limit, driven by the peak of summer electricity consumption, supportive policies, and bullish performance, but a short-term climax may have already occurred, and divergences could increase next week; ③ The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments released a new policy on departure tax refunds, aiming to expand domestic demand and promote consumer spending, which may positively affect the duty-free sector; ④ As the earnings announcement season comes to a close, several companies have been given ST status, caution against the liquidity risks of ST stocks, low stock price stocks, financial fraud stocks, and micro-trading stocks.
Last Friday, the market continued to differentiate and consolidate, with the overall index maintaining a slight oscillating trend. Due to insufficient incremental capital, the rapid rotation of various hot sectors in the recent market has been difficult to sustain, and after a brief recovery on Thursday, high-priced stocks collectively fell again. In terms of short-term sentiment, the market still leans towards a retreat trend. Thus, the market is waiting for the emergence of a new main line to lead after finding the bottom.
On the market, Electric Power stocks surged again last Friday, with over 10 stocks hitting their upper limits, benefiting from expectations of a peak in summer electricity consumption and the coal-power upgrade policy. Furthermore, based on the disclosed earnings so far, the overall feedback from the Electric Power industry is quite positive (for example, Datang Huayin Electric Power's net income surged by 894% year-on-year in the first quarter), attracting some cautious capital. However, it should be noted that the leading Electric Power stocks in this round are relatively speculative, and with the overall explosion of the sector today, some mid to late-stage stocks are also showing accelerated rising trends, which may be seen as a signal of a short-term peak. It is expected that divergences in the Electric Power sector may intensify next week.
A new major policy has been introduced in the consumer sector, as the Ministry of Commerce and six departments recently issued a notice to further optimize the departure tax refund policy and expand inbound consumer spending. The so-called departure tax refund refers to the policy of refunding the value-added tax on goods purchased by overseas travelers in the country when they leave.
From the perspective of the strategy to expand domestic demand, the new departure tax refund policy is another significant implementation of the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption. It is a precise response to the rising international consumer demand against the backdrop of the global rise of inbound tourism in China and reflects an institutional innovation to promote the new economic model of "dual circulation," which may have a direct bullish catalyst for the duty-free sector.
In addition, during last week's meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it was reiterated to actively develop service consumption. Coupled with the upcoming May Day holiday, the cultural tourism sector still has space for anticipated speculation. From the perspective of performance, there is a significant differentiation in the performance of consumer stocks: essential consumer products like Dairy Products and Condiments are favored by funds due to price increase expectations and performance forecasts for the first quarter, and the certainty of performance is also an important direction in the sub-sector of consumer stocks.
As the earnings announcements approach the end, multiple companies were given ST status over the weekend. At present, ST stocks, low stock price stocks, and financial fraud stocks have become a "danger zone," and caution is advised regarding the liquidity risks of micro-trading stocks that lack fundamental support.