积极开拓维保业务，远期利润弹性被忽视。公司实控人中船集团控股低速机设计公司WinGD，可为公司拓展上下游业务提供技术和品牌力支撑。据年报，公司已初步建立低速机全球服务网络，服务范围覆盖亚太、欧洲、美洲等主要航运港口，初步满足WinGD 主机全球服务需求。若公司维保业务100%覆盖WinGD 品牌，初步估测每年可贡献约11 亿元归母净利润，有望开辟第二成长曲线。Key investment points:
Event: The company released its 2024 annual report and 2025 quarterly report. According to the announcement, 2024 revenue was 51.7 billion yuan, up 15% year on year, and net profit due to mother was 1.391 billion yuan, up 78% year on year, close to the upper end of the previous forecast range, corresponding to the 2024Q4 net profit of 0.648 billion yuan, up 76% year on year. The net profit of 2025Q1 to mother was 0.396 billion yuan, up 349% year over year, higher than the median value within the pre-increase range and exceeded expectations.
Diesel engine deliveries and gross margin increased, and new orders focused on high-quality models. The company's diesel engine business revenue in 2024 was 22.9 billion yuan, up 33% year on year, gross profit margin was 21%, up 5.2 pct year on year. According to the annual report, the annual delivery volume of low-speed engines increased 6.31% year-on-year (power caliber). Currently, the company's diesel engine production capacity is full, and priority is given to receiving high-efficiency and high-quality orders. The number of new low-speed engine orders decreased by 20.09% year-on-year (power caliber), the gross margin of new orders increased by 4 pcts, and the share of low-carbon zero-carbon engines increased by 5 pcts. With the gradual implementation of shipping decarbonization policies, dual-fuel mainframes have become a market development trend. The company has the design and production capacity of low-carbon dual-fuel low-speed engines such as LNG, LPG, methanol, ethane, ammonia, etc., and emphasizes the acceptance of high-value orders. The division's revenue and profit margin are expected to continue to grow in the future.
Actively developing maintenance business, long-term profit flexibility is being ignored. The actual controller of the company, China Shipbuilding Group holds WinGD, a low-speed aircraft design company, can provide technical and brand support for the company to expand its upstream and downstream business. According to the annual report, the company has initially established a global service network for low-speed aircraft, covering major shipping ports in Asia Pacific, Europe, America, etc., to initially meet the global service needs of WinGD hosts. If the company's maintenance business covers 100% of the WinGD brand, it is initially estimated that it can contribute about 1.1 billion yuan of net profit to the mother each year, which is expected to open up a second growth curve.
The consideration for recovering a minority interest in CSIC Diesel Engines is at the core of the valuation game. Assuming that all of the 16.51% minority shares of the Group were acquired through the issuance of convertible bonds, the conversion price refers to the 17.35 yuan/share announced. If it is consistent with the 2022 restructuring period (22.6 billion yuan), the lower price response limit is calculated based on the maximum issuance volume previously announced (71 billion yuan).
301 was successfully implemented, and the impact of the new plan on shipyards has been greatly weakened, which is expected to drive the volume of shipbuilding orders and ship prices to rise steadily again.
The impact of the new 301 plan on shipyards was better than expected. Charges for hand-held orders for new Chinese ships have been eliminated, and fees have been reduced for non-Chinese shipowners owning Chinese-built ships. The previous pessimism is expected to heal. Before 301 was launched, shipowners had a strong wait-and-see attitude. The number of new orders signed dropped sharply. After 301 was launched, wait-and-see sentiment was eliminated, and the original backlog of demand will gradually be released, driving up order volume and shipping prices.
The performance exceeded expectations and maintained a “buy” rating. Considering that the company's diesel power business focuses on receiving high value-added orders, and the company is actively developing and maintaining, the remote end is expected to gradually contribute to the increase in performance, raise the company's profit forecast for 2025-2026, and add a new forecast for 2027. The company's net profit for 2025E-2027E is estimated to be 2.053, 3.101, and 3.572 billion yuan, respectively (the original forecast for 2025-2026 was 1.875 and 2.959 billion yuan), corresponding PE is 23, 15, and 13 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The company failed to take back minority shares in CSIC diesel engines; new orders for low-speed engines fell short of expectations; implementation of environmental protection policies fell short of expectations; shipping sentiment declined; steel prices rose sharply; competition intensified due to industrial production expansion.
