In today's Brokerage morning meeting, Sinolink believes that the core logic of incremental policies is becoming clearer; China Securities Co.,Ltd. noted that the current expectations for Fuel Cell Energy vehicles in the Sector are relatively weak, and there might be an upward inflection point in sales during the peak season in May-June; HTSC suggested that the demand is improving in the first quarter, and the performance recovery of Electrical Utilities New energy industry is expected.
On April 25th, according to the Financial Association, the market experienced fluctuations yesterday, with the three major indices showing mixed results. Several high-performing stocks exhibited a rebound trend towards the end of trading, with a total trading volume of 1.11 trillion in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, a decrease of 120.7 billion compared to the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, PEEK materials, Electrical Utilities, The Pet Economy, and Banks led the gains, while Recent IPOs, Software Development, Huawei Ascend, and Computing saw significant declines. By the end of trading yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58%, and the Chinext Price Index decreased by 0.68%.
In today's Brokerage morning meeting, Sinolink believes that the core logic of incremental policies is becoming clearer; China Securities Co.,Ltd. noted that the current expectations for Fuel Cell Energy vehicles in the Sector are relatively weak, and there might be an upward inflection point in sales during the peak season in May-June; HTSC suggested that the demand is improving in the first quarter, and the performance recovery of Electrical Utilities New energy industry is expected.
Sinolink: The core logic of incremental policies is gradually becoming clear.
Sinolink pointed out that recent policy signals have been released intensively, and the core logic of incremental policies is becoming increasingly clear: First, diplomatic efforts are the top priority for responding to tariff shocks. The essence of 'reciprocal tariffs' is not trade, but competition. Whether China and the USA, as the largest manufacturing country and largest consumer country respectively, can gain support from more third-party countries will determine the direction of this competition. Diplomatic achievements between China and non-USA countries will determine the policy's objectives, whether to hedge the short-term decline in exports or to address long-term external risks. Second, policies represented by strengthening expectation management and liquidity management are timely and are expected to be implemented sooner. Important policies need to be complemented by increased fiscal support, and the timing of implementation is related to the weakening export data.
China Securities Co., Ltd. reports that the current expectations for the Fuel Cell Energy vehicle Sector are relatively weak, but a sales upturn may occur during the peak season in May and June.
China Securities Co., Ltd. stated that since 2024, the central government has allocated the subsidy amounts for the first to third years of promoting fuel cell vehicles to local governments, with the subsidy for the third year amounting to 4.21 already disbursed, meaning that all national subsidies for promoting fuel cell vehicles by the end of 2024 have been issued. Overall, the speed of subsidy disbursement has increased, but there is still a significant shortfall in promotion targets, with a remaining promotion gap of 45.4% for 2025 (the final year of promotion). A conservative estimate suggests that 6,300 to 7,000 fuel cell vehicles will be promoted in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 17% to 30%; an optimistic estimate anticipates achieving urban cluster targets, promoting 15,187 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 181%. In March 2025, sales of fuel cell vehicles began to recover, totaling 303 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, marking the first positive growth compared to last year. Given the evident seasonality of fuel cell installations, with peaks occurring in June and the fourth quarter each year, the visibility of sales this year should continue to observe the installation volumes in peak months.
HTSC: In the first quarter, demand improved, and a performance recovery in the Electrical Utilities new energy industry is anticipated.
HTSC believes that in the first quarter of 2025, the demand in various fields of the Electrical Utilities New energy industry will improve, and performance recovery is expected. Among them, the demand for Electric Vehicles in the first quarter will not be weak during the off-season, and it is expected that most lithium battery Industry Chain companies will see an increase in volume and stable profits; the demand for wind power will be high in the first quarter, with accelerated construction on land and at sea, leading to high growth in Industry Chain production and shipment; in photovoltaic, the rush for installation is driving price increases in the Industry Chain, and losses in the first quarter may narrow quarter-on-quarter; in the energy storage sector, the rush for installation and export between China and the USA in the first quarter will support demand, while the large-scale storage in Europe and commercial storage will bolster performance; in the industrial control sector, demand in the first quarter is looking good, with high interest in AIDC and robotics.
