Since Trump took office, the Global Capital Markets have experienced turbulence, with Gold skyrocketing, US stocks, US Bonds, and the US dollar all suffering losses, and Bitcoin has once again reached 0.09 million dollars after a wave of panic selling, demonstrating its resilience.
Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that tariffs have triggered the vulnerability of the Bonds market, and that Bitcoin reaching new highs is not a coincidence; it is not merely the accumulation of ETF liquidity, nor is it just another brief eruption of speculative frenzy. The real driving force comes from a deeper, more systemic process of risk reassessment—the fragility of the Bonds market is being exposed, and this process has been ignited by a new round of tariff policies in the USA.
This all started when Trump proposed to restore tariff policies. He reignited the protectionist narrative of 'Made in America,' claiming that by significantly increasing import taxes on Chinese products, he would rebuild the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing. This resurgence of trade protectionism quickly intensified market concerns about future inflation. Unlike in 2018, the macro backdrop this time is that US debt has long been out of control, with fiscal deficits breaking records year after year, and the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate hikes has been nearly exhausted due to high leverage.
When tariffs, as an inflation catalyst, were thrown into the market, reactions swiftly occurred in the Bonds market. Investors began to reassess the risk characteristics of US Treasury bonds. An intuitive Indicator of this is the MOVE Index (which measures volatility in the US Bonds market) soaring to its highest point since the 2023 banking crisis. Treasury bonds, as the largest 'risk-free asset' in the world, have their true faith foundation rooted in the delicate balance between US fiscal and monetary policy. Once fiscal policy becomes unsustainable and monetary policy has to bail it out, the term 'risk-free' becomes hollow.
The drastic fluctuations in the MOVE Index are in fact an anonymous threat letter from the market: if the path isn't altered, even US Treasury bonds may begin to be discounted. Primary dealers have started demanding higher yields at auctions, and the market's demand for long-term bonds has become extremely weak. This is why the US Treasury has had to reinstate the so-called 'Treasury buyback program'—the Bessent policy, as a response to market panic. It attempts to stabilize long-term rates through short-term buyback mechanisms, reducing the pressure to sell long-term bonds, but frankly, this is no different from a disguised form of money printing.
The problem is that such policies can only alleviate liquidity but cannot repair confidence. When the anchor of a market is questioned, all prices will begin to drift. At this moment, global capital is seeking a new 'anchor'—one that does not rely on sovereignty, credit ratings, or central bank operations. This anchor is Gold and Bitcoin.
Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that the reason Bitcoin has reached a high point again at this moment is not because investors suddenly became 'greedy,' but because they suddenly realized—if even US Bonds are starting to shake, what assets are truly safe?
The market is no longer the 'central bank supported' market of the 2010s. Now, it is an 'era without faith.' Bitcoin's decentralization, censorship resistance, and scarcity—once considered 'narrative bubbles'—have become real hedging tools. Especially after the US ETF products opened up channels, Bitcoin can now be integrated into traditional asset allocation systems with higher efficiency, no longer just a 'self-entertainment' in the crypto circle. It is beginning to possess a true systemic hedging function.
When government bonds become as volatile as high-yield corporate bonds, and when fiscal deficits become the default setting rather than an unexpected event, Bitcoin will no longer be an 'alternative asset' but a 'mainstream heresy'. This is exactly the situation we will see in 2025.
The reason Bitcoin can reach new highs is not because the world is safer, but because the risks in the world have become more real. It is not a symbol of prosperity, but a pricing tool for distrust. Every fluctuation in the bond market, every compromise in fiscal policy, and every escalation of trade wars serves as fuel for Bitcoin's rise.
This is the reality of today: a world of policy imbalances, a world with scarce trust, a world of debt monetization – which is precisely the source of Bitcoin's greatest bull market.
