On April 22, Financial Associated Press reported (Reporter: Lu Tingting) that various talented robots have caught the eye in major exhibitions and events, performing tasks such as flipping, marathon running, and orthopedic surgery. In the secondary market, the stock prices of several related concept stocks have also risen.

The 137th China Import and Export Commodities Trade Fair (referred to as "Canton Fair") will be held in Guangzhou from April 15 to May 5 in three phases, with a newly established service robot area gathering products from various domestic manufacturers. An exhibitor showcasing window cleaning robots told Financial Associated Press, "Customers placed deposits on the spot, with deposits received during the exhibition reaching over tens of millions;" a company specializing in delivery and welcoming service robots stated, "9 out of 10 display prototypes were reserved, and they will be handed directly to customers after the exhibition."

At the same time, continuous news has emerged regarding production line construction, skill package iteration, and new product R&D progress along the Industry Chain. Under these circumstances, when will the robot industry experience its 'iPhone moment'? When can humanoid robots enter household scenarios? Financial Associated Press has learned through various interviews that the realization of true mass production of robots still requires time. In addition to technological factors, issues such as costs, laws, and regulations also need to be addressed.

Service robots have gained 'Overseas offers.'

China's commercial service robots hold an important position in the global market, occupying nearly 40% of the share in 2023.

Against the backdrop of the tariff war, the newly added service robot area at this Canton Fair is still very popular, with main exhibits including inspection robots, medical robots, dining robots, delivery robots, and robotic dogs.

The service robot area newly set up at the Canton Fair has attracted a lot of popularity, as captured by Financial Associated Press reporters.

Suzhou Pangolin Robot Co., Ltd, which participated in the Canton Fair for the first time, showcased products such as dining delivery robots. According to reports from Financial Associated Press, on the morning of the first day of the event, the company secured 13 Orders and approximately 3 million USD Orders over the 5-day exhibition period, successfully signing contracts with 4 clients from the USA. In addition, out of the 10 prototypes displayed at the Canton Fair, 9 have already been pre-ordered and will be delivered directly to clients after the exhibition.

Pangolin Robot Photo by Financial Associated Press.

Shenzhen Hongxu Jin Technology Co., Ltd's window-cleaning robot attracted foreign buyers who stopped to converse. A relevant responsible person from the company stated that over 90% of their sales are foreign exports, with last year's export volume growing more than 25% year-on-year. The company has adjusted its business structure a few years ago, so the impact of the tariff war is very limited.

The responsible person further stated, "At each Canton Fair, we launch at least two qualified products with global patents. This year at the Canton Fair, customers from Europe, Russia, and other places expressed more confidence after viewing the products and immediately paid deposits on-site; they hope to catch the upcoming sales peak. Rough estimates show that the deposits received during the fair have reached tens of millions. In addition, there are many potential Orders from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative Concept, and foreign merchants are also interested in acting as agents for our products."

Moreover, robots that can 'move by rolling' and 'orthopedic master' surgical robots also attracted attention.

"The spherical robot moves forward by rolling and does not require additional posture stabilization mechanisms, thus achieving an energy efficiency 8-9 times that of legged robots, capable of continuous operation for 10 hours or covering 120 kilometers." It is reported that the spherical robot (RT-G) displayed by Loteck Technology is equipped with various Sensors and cameras, capable of performing multiple tasks such as patrolling, monitoring, detection, rescue, confrontation, disposal, and strike in hostile environments like water and land. Currently, the company's amphibious intelligent robot products have been deployed in various civil aviation airports, underground comprehensive corridors, and petroleum and chemical parks across the country.

Loteck spherical robot Photo by Financial Associated Press.

The orthopedic robotic surgery system displayed by Yuanhua Intelligent Technology consists of three main parts: robotic arm vehicle, navigation instrument vehicle, and main control vehicle, assisting doctors in total knee, hip, and unicompartmental knee joint replacement surgeries. The company states that the advantages of this robot include: proprietary navigation system algorithms can control navigation positioning errors within 0.5 millimeters, and the accuracy of prosthesis placement is significantly higher than traditional manual surgeries. To date, it has completed over 4,000 surgeries nationwide.

The "Dr. Intelligent Orthopedic Surgical Robot" as captured by a reporter from Financial Associated Press.

Midea Group Co., Ltd (000333.SZ) informed a reporter from Financial Associated Press that the humanoid robot is currently undergoing iteration, developing labor skills, including bipedal iteration, with the complete machine set to make its official debut in May. It has been revealed that the humanoid robot plans to depart from Midea's Global Innovation Center in Foshan on May 6 to work at one of Midea's "lighthouse factories", the Midea Refrigerator factory in Jingzhou, USA.

Currently, humanoid robots are evidently landing faster in commercialized scenarios, and the market is highly focused on the point at which such robots will enter households for "housekeeping." Lu Hancheng, director of Gao Gong Robot Industry Research Institute, stated, "Landing in home scenarios requires overcoming three major obstacles: cost, interaction, safety and naturalness, and ethical issues. At present, there is still a significant gap. An optimistic judgment suggests that a turning point may be reached around 2030-2031."

With technological advancements and market demand driving growth, the service robot industry has a positive outlook. According to research data from Sullivan, the global commercial service robot market is expected to grow from approximately 3 billion yuan in 2024 to over 10 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 20.3%.

The humanoid robot industry chain is making progress; is mass production finally here?

There is a viewpoint within the industry that 2025 will be a critical point for the explosion of robots. However, in Lu Hancheng's view, a cautiously optimistic attitude should be maintained regarding 'mass production'. The key lies in achieving a closed loop of mass production applications. From this perspective, realizing true 'mass production' and delivering applications in the short term still poses considerable difficulties, with the next 2-3 years expected to be a critical period.

"Currently, the core bottleneck for large-scale production is still the realization of technology." Lu Hancheng stated that while cost is one of the influencing factors, when technological capabilities can genuinely meet the demands of application, China's supply chain foundation is adequate to support scaling applications and meet cost expectations.

A reporter from Financial Associated Press called the industry chain company as an investor. A staff member from the securities department of PCB manufacturer Olympic Circuit Technology (603920.SH) stated that the company has product supply in the humanoid robot field, but the current shipment volume is not large because most terminal devices are still in the early stages of research and debugging.

Keli Sensing Technology (603662.SH) offers products in the robotics field, including six-dimensional force sensors and torque sensors. A representative from the company's securities department shared that tactile sensors are under development but have not yet yielded results; regarding six-dimensional force sensor products, a customer in collaborative robotics has placed a small bulk order, which currently has a minimal impact on performance.

Overall, the sensors used in robotics have higher requirements and more complex designs than those in other application areas, stated the representative from Keli Sensing Technology. The design of sensors is related to the application scenarios of robots; even for the same six-dimensional force sensor, there are differences in design structure, technical parameters, and other aspects depending on different application scenarios.

A manufacturer representative mentioned that the challenges in developing dexterous hands lie in ensuring the flexibility of the fingers and the precise transmission of algorithm instructions. The core components of dexterous hands include the electric machine, springs at the joints, and drive chips, with rubber typically used for parts like fingers. To further enhance the load-bearing capacity of the 'hand', there will be higher requirements for soft and hardware technology and component materials, which will also increase costs.

Kingfa Sci. & Tech. (600143.SH) representatives indicated that in the future, the demand for high-performance materials per robot will be on the rise. Key driving factors include the diversification of materials on the robot's exterior and the replacement of steel with plastic in internal structural parts. However, robots also place higher demands on material performance; for instance, the materials used for the legs of robotic dogs, the skeletal structure of humanoid robots, and linkages need to be impact-resistant, and the rigidity of internal supporting components must be strong enough.

According to reports from Kingfa Sci. & Tech., high-end materials from the company can be applied to various parts of humanoid robots, including the radar shell, memory modules, communication module connectors, battery pack shells, actuator gears, face masks, chests, skins for dexterous hands, and joints.

Diagram of core components of humanoid robots, photographed by Financial Association reporters.

It is noteworthy that under the trend of 'replacing steel with plastic' and lightweight designs, PEEK is seen as a key material for reducing the weight of robots.

Regarding the feasibility of replacing metal with PEEK materials, Shanxi pointed out in research reports that the specific strength, dielectric constant, and chemical resistance of PEEK perform comprehensively better than ordinary metals, particularly the specific strength index, which is about 8 times that of aluminum alloy. Previously, Tesla's second-generation humanoid robot OptimusGen2 used PEEK materials, reducing the robot's weight by 10 kilograms, increasing walking speed by 30%, and improving overall balance, body control, and endurance.

The accelerated development of embodied intelligence industries, including humanoid robots, is igniting market demand for PEEK materials. Listed companies such as Zhongyan Co., Ltd. (688716.SH), Shenzhen WOTE Advanced Materials (002886.SZ), and Xinxin New Material (301076.SZ) have related layouts in the PEEK sector.

According to personnel from Kingfa Sci. & Tech., the company has had pilot industrialization technology for PEEK polymer for many years, and will continue to invest in modified PEEK materials. Related products have already been applied in the fields of autos, electronics, and machinery. "PEEK materials are one of our key focus areas for the future."

However, several industry interviewees informed the Financial Associated Press that PEEK materials have not yet achieved scale application in the robotics field. In addition to their expensive costs, there are also performance issues that need to be addressed.

"To achieve 'plastic instead of steel' in different structures within robots, there first must be a comprehensive plan to determine the required performance of the materials. Then the design must align with the entire product structure of the customer, processing and forming a complete solution," said Hong Xianjun, Assistant Marketing General Manager of Kingfa Sci. & Tech.

According to data from TrendForce, there are 11 mainstream humanoid robot manufacturers in the Chinese market that will start mass production plans in 2024, among which 6 manufacturers, such as Yushu Technology, UB Tech (09880.HK), Zhiyuan Robotics, Galaxy General, Zhongqing Robotics, and Leju Robotics, plan to produce over a thousand units by 2025.

TrendForce predicts that the output value of humanoid robot bodies in the Chinese market will exceed 4.5 billion yuan in 2025. Coupled with Musk's goal of mass producing thousands of Tesla Optimus units in 2025, it is expected that the mass production plans of leading body manufacturers will drive the ecological layout and integrity of the humanoid robot components supply chain in the Chinese market.