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大消费探底回升,银行股逆势走强,持续缩量环境下防御或成短线主旋律

The CSI Consumer 360 index is rebounding after hitting the bottom, banks stocks are performing strongly against the trend, and under the continuous shrinking environment, defense may become the main melody for short-term trading.

cls.cn ·  Apr 17 09:22

Track the entire lifecycle of the main Sector.

Introduction: ① Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed in the red but many individual stocks fell broadly, with trading volume around 1.1 trillion; the market style is defensive, waiting for a trend change signal; ② The CSI Consumer 360 index is the core main line of the market, with orders during the May Day holiday being explosive, catalyzing tourism stocks to lead the rise, attention can be paid to opportunities in Hotel Dining for supplementary increases; ③ The dividend direction represented by bank stocks is strong; factors such as macroeconomic recovery are Bullish for Banks, having defensive value in the short term, while medium to long term attention should be on structural opportunities from improving industry Operation effectiveness.

Yesterday, the market once again tested the bottom before rebounding, with the Shanghai Composite Index ultimately closing in the red, but individual stocks broadly fell. Moreover, although trading volume increased slightly, it was still at around 1.1 trillion, against a backdrop of poor sustainability for sectors and hotspots, the market style in the short term is leaning more towards defense, waiting for the emergence of trend change signals.

From the market perspective, the CSI Consumer 360 index direction is still the core main line of the market. Since 2025, China has implemented a series of policies aimed at 'boosting consumption, optimizing the consumption environment' by issuing Consumer subsidies, implementing tax incentives, and launching digital consumption vouchers, etc., which are gradually activating the potential of the consumption market. At the same time, under the backdrop of increased market volatility and heightened uncertainty, the combination of 'low expectations and low valuations' plus 'stabilization trends under consumption resilience characteristics' will enhance funding preferences for consumer allocation.

From yesterday's market performance, driven by the explosive orders during the May Day holiday, tourism stocks became the leaders in the recent consumer segment. Under this logic, attention can still be paid to supplementary increase opportunities in Hotel Dining and Transportation. Additionally, it’s important to note that due to a current lack of sufficient incremental funds in the market, the style of individual stock speculative trading is gradually dispersing, especially as some previously halted high-profile stocks are seeing a return of funds for repair, with Jiangsu Lianyungang Port, Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade, and Beingmate Co.,Ltd all performing impressive limit-up reversals. However, it is expected that going forward a knockout format will prevail, adhering to the principle of淘汰赛模式 of eliminating the weak and preserving the strong.

The dividend direction represented by bank stocks is currently once again strong. Agricultural Bank Of China, China Construction Bank Corporation, and Bank of Shanghai reached historical new highs during the day. On one hand, as the macro economy gradually recovers, the warming of manufacturing and service industries drives an increase in Crediting demand, enhancing expectations for Banks' asset quality and profitability improvements. On the other hand, the banking industry is shifting from 'scale expansion' to 'quality cultivation'; for example, China Construction Bank and China CITIC Bank Corporation emphasize risk control and efficiency improvement, leading to continuous improvements in asset quality. By 2024, the non-performing loan ratio of state-owned large banks is expected to stabilize with a decline, while the capital adequacy ratio remains above 15%. In the short term, the bank sector still has defensive value, but attention needs to be paid to economic fluctuations and margin pressure; in the medium to long term, industry differentiation and structural opportunities from improving Operation effectiveness need to be focused on.

Additionally, the ST Sector has also been active recently against the trend; besides weak market speculative trading, part of it is fueled by anticipated speculation on possible removal of delisting risks. As we enter late April, the first quarter report performance will see a busy release period, with varieties exceeding expectations likely to experience individual stock trends, while also requiring vigilance against potential performance explosion risks.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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