Zhongtai released a Research Reports stating that in terms of policy, "embodied intelligence" has been included in the government work report for the first time, with a high level of importance placed on the strategic level.
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Zhongtai has released a Research Report stating that at the policy level, "Embodied Intelligence" has been included in the government work report for the first time, receiving high attention at the strategic level. At the industry level, since Tesla launched Optimus in 2022, Optimus is expected to enter mass production in 2025, driving a new round of growth in the Industry Chain, and robot industry chain companies are set to see their performance realize significant returns. Domestic automakers are fully engaged in layout, with independent research and development alongside collaboration modes, expected to land first in the production scenes of car manufacturers. At the technical level, robots serve as important terminals for AI and smart driving; AI large models can accelerate simulation data collection, and Deepseek provides multiple supports for robot big/small brains, jointly promoting the commercialization of humanoid robots.
The main viewpoints of Zhongtai are as follows:
1. Robot Review: The mass production of Optimus is imminent, with market dynamics focusing on technological upgrades, and large companies like Huawei entering the field, leading to the Diffusion of the market towards external symbols.
Since Tesla proposed humanoid robots in August 2021, it has gone through four stages: initial Concept - product samples - technological upgrades - imminent mass production. ① 2021 Concept Stage: Tesla first mentioned the Tesla bot, with market focus on high-value and high-barrier segments such as T-chain actuators and dexterous hands and gear reducers; ② 2022 Prototype Stage: Tesla released the Optimus prototype, with high BOM proportions in screw mechanisms and dexterous hands running ahead of α; ③ 2023 Second Generation Stage: Tesla released gen2, with strong performance in sensor and other areas for technological upgrades; ④ From late 2024 to present: Tesla's third generation related videos have been updated in succession, showing strong performance in areas like dexterous hands, combined with the acceleration of industrialization by multiple large companies like Huawei and Figure, leading to a strong β in the robot market.
2. Current Outlook
①: The resonance of multiple factors including policies, industry and technology will lead to the year 2025 marking the mass production year for robots.
1) Policy aspect: "Embodied Intelligence" has been included in the government work report for the first time, showing high strategic importance.
2) Industry aspect: Since Tesla released the Optimus in 2022, mass production is expected in 2025, driving a new wave of growth in the Industry Chain, marking the first year for performance realization in the robot Industry Chain. Domestic automobile manufacturers are fully engaging in layout, with self-research (Huawei, XPeng) and cooperation (BMW, BYD) models running in parallel, anticipated to land first in the car production scenarios.
3) Technology aspect: Robots serve as important terminal carriers for AI + intelligent driving applications. AI large models can accelerate simulation data collection, and Deepseek provides multiple supports for the robot's big/small brain, collectively promoting the commercialization of humanoid robots.
Three, current outlook.
②: Manufacturing side, several companies have started ramp-up production, and technological routes are becoming clearer.
Tesla, Yushu, and Zhiyuan have all planned humanoid robot shipment volumes ranging from a thousand to ten thousand units in 2025, signaling the industry is entering the mass production stage, and the technological route is becoming clearer. Taking Tesla as an example, its execution system has the highest proportion.
IV. Investment Suggestions
Mainline 1: T Chain is nearing the set point, suppliers are basically determined, focus on production nodes and market share. Mainline 2: Huawei Chain, product R&D is advancing rapidly, focus on subsequent product iteration directions and domestic supplier selection. Mainline 3: Other Ontology factory supply chains.
Risk Warning: The progress of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation industrialization is not meeting expectations; the development of AI technology is not meeting expectations; the risk of Research Reports using information updates being untimely.
