Source: Brokerage China
Author: Shi Qian

It is reported that officials from Japan will travel to the USA from the 16th to the 18th for tariff negotiations, expected to become one of the first countries to negotiate with the USA. At this time, Japan's Prime Minister Shiro Ishiba set a tough tone. He stated that no significant concessions would be made and that there is no rush to reach an agreement. This may be Ishiba's "strongest warning yet" to the USA. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Basent hinted on Tuesday (15th) that completing a tariff agreement with major countries may require more time than the 90-day delay announced by the Trump administration last week.

Strongest warning.

With the upcoming negotiations between the USA and Japan, what benchmark significance will this bring to the market? Surprisingly, Japan took the initiative. On April 15th, the Japanese side announced that the USA. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ The company violated Japan's "Antimonopoly Law" and issued the first administrative termination order to large US companies, indicating that Japanese authorities are taking a tougher stance.

Based on past experience, Japan has often held a subordinate and weak position in Japan-US relations and negotiations. Japan's strong response this time indicates that Japan and some allies will engage in a more intense battle with the USA over tariff issues.

During the budget committee meeting of the House of Representatives on the 14th, Shigeru Ishiba stated that the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on American products would be excluded, because in light of the rising food and energy prices, implementing retaliatory tariffs would not be in the interest of Japan and its citizens. However, he emphasized that Japan is not prepared to make significant concessions in tariff negotiations and will not rush to reach an agreement, as acting too hastily may lead to failure.

According to a Reuters report, Ishiba's comments were made ahead of the Japan-US tariff negotiations scheduled for the 17th, expected to cover topics including tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and Exchange Rates. The report stated that this was Ishiba's "strongest warning to date" against the US government's decisions that harm the world economy.

Bloomberg commented that whether Trump can reach tariff agreements with numerous countries will have Japan as a litmus test. Japan is one of the first countries to engage in formal tariff negotiations with the USA, which will test whether Trump is genuinely willing to reach tariff agreements with other countries.

Other media reported that the US side would not genuinely negotiate but would simply (use this as) an extortion tactic. If Japan trusts the other party, it will lose more, as bullies always continue to demand. The US side will never give Japan any "good fruits". Instead of filling the US side with a bunch of gifts that make them gain without effort, Japan should hold a firm stance.

Risk of hesitation.

According to knowledgeable sources at Nissan, the company will cut production of its best-selling American model, the Rogue SUV, in Japan between May and July, becoming the latest global Auto Manufacturer to change production plans due to the new US import tariffs.

Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on overseas-produced cars has disrupted the global auto supply chain. Japan's third-largest Auto Manufacturer.$Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$Facing greater risks than some competitors. The USA is its largest market, accounting for over a quarter of its car sales last year, many of which were manufactured in Japan or Mexico.

Although Trump stated on Monday that he is considering modifying the auto tax because Auto Manufacturers "need a little time". However, Nissan stated in a press release that it is reviewing its production and supply chain operations to find the best solutions for efficiency and sustainability. The company expressed its commitment to adapting to market changes while prioritizing workforce and production capacity. The statement noted, "We will take a thoughtful and prudent approach while considering both short-term and long-term impacts."

In fact, Trump's tariff policy is fluctuating, and while it may delay imposition in the short term, the long-term variables are significant. On the evening of April 11, Eastern Time, the USA Customs announced that, according to a memo signed by President Trump that day, it would exempt the "reciprocal tariffs" on Integrated Circuits, Communications Equipment, Smart Phones, and display modules. However, it soon became apparent that the USA federal government is pushing for investigations into the import of drugs and Semiconductors. Trump also mentioned last Sunday that he would announce the tariff rates on imported Semiconductor products within the next week.

In today's early trading, which includes Post-Market Trading,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ The company's stock prices plummeted due to export restrictions. The Asia-Pacific stock market also saw a widespread decline this morning, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index's decline expanding to 1% and the Nikkei/Yen dropping more than 0.7%.

According to a report from Bloomberg on Wednesday, spot Gold has reached a new historic high. Due to the escalating trade war, concerns about the Global economic recession have risen, with Gold prices surging more than 20% this year.

As investors increase their Shareholding in Gold-backed ETFs and central banks around the world continue to stockpile Gold, major Banks remain optimistic about the outlook for Gold in the coming quarters. Goldman Sachs predicts that by mid-2026, the price of Gold will rise to $4,000 per ounce.

Signals released by the USA Treasury Secretary.

On Tuesday (15th), USA Treasury Secretary Becerra hinted that completing a tariff agreement with major countries may take longer than the 90-day grace period announced by the Trump administration last week.

Becerra told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, "We are acting quickly, but will we have a complete document and a formal legal document within 90 days? It's unlikely."

"But I think we can reach substantial and clear consensus with them. If we reach a consensus and they agree to lower tariffs, reduce non-tariff barriers, and decrease industrial and labor subsidies, I believe we can move forward," Becerra said.

Insiders revealed that Becerra has listed the United Kingdom, Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan as top priority targets for the new trade agreement. Sources said Becerra informed allies that these countries are his top targets and that he has been in contact with officials from these countries.

Editor/Rocky