Evaluation of Hong Kong stocks

Futu Information March 25 | the Hang Seng Index expanded its gains in the afternoon, the heat of trading warmed up, and individual stocks generally rose. By the close, the Hang Seng index was up 3.81% at 23527.19, while the state-owned enterprises index was up 3.76% at 9529.49. The main board had a turnover of HK $151.162 billion throughout the day, a slight decrease from the previous trading day.

On the market side, Asia-Pacific stock markets closed sharply higher, with the Korean Composite Index up 5.89% at 1704.76, recovering all its losses since March 18; the Nikkei 225 index closed up 8.04% at 19546.63, the biggest gain since November 2008; Australia's ASX200 index closed up 5.54% at 4998.1; and New Zealand's NZX50 index rose 1.7% to 9264.38.

In terms of the plate, automobile stocks rose, brilliance soared by more than 14%, Great Wall Motor rose nearly 12%, Beijing Automobile and Geely Automobile rose more than 7%, and Guangzhou Automobile Group rose 6.22%. Chen Zepeng, deputy director of the Guangzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said at the 53rd news briefing on epidemic prevention and control held by the Guangzhou Municipal Government Information Office that detailed rules for the implementation of policies to boost automobile consumption, such as subsidies for new energy vehicles, are being formulated urgently, according to the Shanghai Securities News.

Individual stocks$Kingsoft (03888.HK) $It rose 10% to HK $24.2, with a total market capitalization of HK $33.22 billion. Jinshan Software released its annual results after hours yesterday. For the year ended December 31, 2019, the company achieved an income of 8.2183 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 39% over the same period last year, and a gross profit of 3.477 billion yuan, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. Operating profit before deducting the cost of share remuneration is 51.33 million yuan; it is proposed to pay a final dividend of HK $0.10 per share.

$Zhongan Online (06060.HK) $It rose nearly 5% to HK $25.50, with a total market capitalization of HK $37.48 billion. Daiwa released the latest report saying that it is believed that Zhongan can turn into profit this year, and even upgrade its rating to "outperform the market". According to the report, Zhongan's loss narrowed 74 per cent to 454 million yuan last year. Daiwa estimates that with the improvement in the proportion of insurance products and the increase in tourism car insurance premiums, the proportion of payments to total expenditure is expected to fall from 113 per cent in 2019 to 103 per cent this year. Daiwa added that there was a 30% net increase in premiums last year because the group strengthened its cooperation with Ant Financial Services Group, and Zhonghe management believed that COVID-19 had a limited impact on the group.

China Construction International (03311.HK) $It rose nearly 15% to HK $5.05, with a total market capitalization of HK $25.49 billion. China Construction International announced its annual results at noon today. for the year ended December 31, 2019, the company achieved a turnover of HK $61.67 billion, an increase of 10.9% over the same period last year, and a profit attributable to shareholders of HK $5.4132 billion, an increase of 20.3% over the same period last year. Basic profit per share is 107.21 Hong Kong cents; proposed final dividend of 16 Hong Kong cents per share. Driven by the growth of the Hong Kong division, the Group recorded turnover and gross profit of HK $61.67 billion and HK $9.236 billion respectively, an increase of 10.9% and 6.2% respectively.

Among the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index, individual stocks generally rose, with WH Group Limited leading the market; among the constituent stocks of the national index, Shenzhou International Group led the market.

Market sentiment

In terms of Hong Kong Stock Connect, the net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect (southbound) exceeded HK $6.8 billion today, and the net inflow has increased recently.

Message surface

At the macro level, the central bank announced that the total liquidity of the banking system is at a reasonable and adequate level and does not carry out reverse repurchase operations. No funds are due today. This is the 27th day in a row that the central bank has suspended reverse repurchase.

Boone, chief economist of the OECD: the size of the global economic shutdown is equivalent to 25% of global GDP. 35%.

The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement on a bipartisan stimulus plan. The three major US futures indexes rose in a straight line, and S & P 500 index futures turned red from falling more than 2%.

Global Finance Association: non-local portfolio outflows from emerging markets have now reached $78 billion so far in 2020, equivalent to all inflows for the whole of 2019. Over the past four weeks, emerging markets have seen the largest non-local portfolio outflows on record. In the four weeks ended February 28, March 6, March 13 and March 20, the average weekly outflow was about $30 billion.

In terms of the epidemic, according to the real-time global epidemic data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 14:59 Beijing time on the 25th, there were a total of more than 18900 COVID-19 deaths worldwide. A total of 423670 cases were confirmed worldwide, of which 55225 were confirmed in the United States.

As for 5G, Han Xia, director of the Information and Communications Administration of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that by the end of last year, there were 130000 5G base stations in China, and more efforts will be made to build them this year.

As for the forehead warm gun, it suddenly rose from the tuyere to gradually dissipated, and the original minority forehead warm gun only took more than two months. The reporter's survey found that the trend that businesses directly own the spot and do not need to make an appointment is becoming more and more obvious, and a large number of scalpers who have bid up the warm gun of hot speculation sensed the change in the direction of the wind and hurriedly dumped the goods. With the further tightening of market regulation, consumers are gradually returning to rationality, and the "crazy" quota temperature gun market is gradually returning to normal.

In terms of the Olympic Games, Moody's Corporation: the postponement of the Tokyo Olympic Games will affect business and consumer confidence in Japan and further curb investment and consumption in the first half of the year, but the holding of the Olympic Games next year will boost the economic recovery after the epidemic.

In terms of metals, Morgan Stanley believes that as the market stabilizes and the spread of the epidemic will be curbed later this year, copper and nickel will lead the rebound in base metals because of recent limited supplies and lowest inventories.

As for mobile phones, iPhone assembler Weitron said it had suspended production in India.

Institutional viewpoint

UBS: based on a series of "black swan" events that have weakened the outlook for global economic growth this year, it has decided to lower its forecast for the basic situational target of the Hang Seng Index from 28,200 to 22500. Earnings are expected to fall 10 per cent this year (up 3.5 per cent previously), equivalent to 10.4 times forecast earnings and 0.9 times price-to-book ratios. According to the bank, the latest target for the Hang Seng Index is 19200 points (previously 25200 points) in a "downside" scenario, in which earnings are forecast to fall 15 per cent this year (up 1.5 per cent), equivalent to 9.4 times forecast P / E and 0.8 times P / B, referring to the "downside" scenario that reflects the level of recession.

CITIC: the epidemic triggered sharp fluctuations in the global market, and "liquidity" triggered overseas funds to sell offshore China-related assets. Judging the bottom characteristics of the market from three dimensions (relative valuation level, market dividend rate and market risk compensation premium), the Hong Kong stock market already has a long-term margin of safety. Compared with history, after the normalization of the market, it is expected to correspond to more than 20% of highly deterministic returns. Recent net purchases of southward funds have reached a new high, mainly into the stocks of banks, technology and other industries. Under the global liquidity run, China's leading companies focusing on the listing of Hong Kong stocks are the best choice at present, and H shares have obvious performance-to-price ratio.

Minsheng Securities: this round of strong dollar is only a short-term phenomenon, the Fed unlimited QE will make the dollar index fall ahead of time, the dollar will decline in the future. The RMB exchange rate is under pressure in the short term and is expected to appreciate in the long run. As the strength of the US dollar is only a short-term phenomenon, the devaluation of the RMB is also a short-term phenomenon, and 7.2 is expected to be at the end of the short term. In the long run, with the decline of the US dollar index in the future, RMB assets are sought after for the sake of safe-haven demand under the superimposed overseas economic and financial crisis, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to go out of a wave of appreciation. With reference to 2010-2013, the RMB exchange rate appreciated significantly at that time, which was good for air transport, paper, real estate finance and other sectors.

JPMorgan Chase & Co: social alienation measures implemented across the United States have shown signs of success, which may lead to a rebound in the US economy and stock market faster than many people expected. If this early indicator is correct, the US economy could restart within "a few weeks" and the S & P 500 could return to record levels by early next year, he said in a report to clients.

Evergrande Research Institute: communication infrastructure is the "highway" in the information Internet era, which provides infrastructure support for the digital economy, and is a necessary place for countries all over the world to develop high technology and ensure strategic security. 1G to 4G was once the dominant era in Europe and the United States. The leading position of 4G accumulatively drives US $1 trillion in output and contributes US $475 billion to US GDP growth every year, making a great contribution to the consolidation of US scientific and technological hegemony. In the future, 5G will pull trillions of downstream economic value with trillions of dollars of investment, which will become the key to the competition among great powers. China and the United States will fight at the top of the new generation of information technology.