According to a report by China Finance and Economics on April 15 (Reporter Peng Kefeng), how much impact will the disturbances faced by foreign trade-related Business have on Banks under the "reciprocal tariffs" incident? Perhaps we can glean some insights from the annual reports of major Banks.

According to inquiries made by the Financial Association reporters into the annual reports of various Banks, although there is limited disclosure of credit data across segmented industries, many banks, including Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China and Bank Of China, have provided some degree of introduction regarding their foreign trade-related Business and overseas layout from the previous year.

Annual reports of Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China, Bank Of China, China Construction Bank, Bank Of Communications, and CM BANK disclose the status of foreign trade-related Business.

The annual report of Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China for 2024 shows that the bank served the construction of strong service trade countries last year, solidly fulfilling its commitment to the 'Spring融行动 2024' service, and fully supporting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, cumulatively issuing on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet financing of 4.8 trillion yuan to key foreign trade and foreign-funded enterprises in the country. It optimized comprehensive financial services for cross-border e-commerce, successfully processing transactions for payment institutions and new business formats amounting to 273.174 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8% compared to the previous year, and serving over 100,000 small and micro merchants. The customs 'single window' financial services were continuously promoted to facilitate trade, with 6.487 billion dollars in cross-border remittance processed in 2024.

The 2024 annual report of Bank Of China indicates that in terms of foreign trade, last year the Bank's cross-border e-commerce settlement product "Bank Of China Cross-Border e-Commerce" had a transaction volume of 813.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.82%, leading the market, including a cross-border yuan transaction scale of 742.265 billion yuan; the number of cooperative clients was 51, with coverage of major clients exceeding 80%. In addition, the volume of cross-border settlement Business steadily increased in quality, and the leading advantage was further consolidated. In 2024, international settlement volume of domestic institutions and cross-border yuan settlement volume surpassed 4 trillion US dollars and 16 trillion yuan, respectively, both ranking first in the market; the scale of cross-border e-commerce settlement increased by approximately 40% year-on-year.

The 2024 report of China Construction Bank pointed out that the Bank efficiently served the real economy and provided comprehensive financial services for foreign trade foreign-invested enterprises, achieving a trade financing issuance of 2.15 trillion yuan for the year, an increase of 17.86% over the previous year; the international balance of payments volume was 1.56 trillion US dollars, an increase of 11.40% over the previous year; and the "Cross-Border Express Loan" series of products provided financing support of 37.355 billion yuan for small and micro foreign trade enterprises.

The annual report of Bank Of Communications disclosed that the Bank innovatively optimized cross-border settlement Business for Silk Road e-commerce/cross-border e-commerce platforms, supporting small and micro foreign trade merchants on platforms like Amazon to achieve export receipt based on transaction electronic information. Foreign-related letters of guarantee supported domestic enterprises to steadily "go global" and jointly build the Belt and Road Initiative Concept. During the reporting period, the business volume of issuing foreign-related letters of guarantee increased by 99.37% year-on-year, with a 115.10% year-on-year increase for letters of guarantee issued to countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative Concept. A total of 24 new foreign trade business projects were implemented, with a year-on-year increase in business volume of 40.08%. During the reporting period, the international settlement volume of Bank Of Communications was 512.499 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.56% year-on-year.

The CM BANK 2024 annual report shows that during the reporting period, the bank aimed to build itself as the "main settlement bank" for cross-border business and the "global main bank" for core customers, solidifying the cross-border customer base, improving the product service system, and upgrading its operational service capabilities. During the reporting period, the bank achieved an international revenue and expenditure business volume of 425.611 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 19.26%.

From the information above, several national commercial banks have a certain scale in cross-border financing and other aspects. Therefore, after the "reciprocal tariff" incident, have the major banks introduced any new countermeasures? Will it affect the credit allocation in the second quarter? Today, Financial Link reporters contacted several state-owned major banks on this matter, but were told it was "inconvenient to respond."

Several city commercial banks reported that the impact was not significant, but continued observation is needed.

Objectively speaking, cross-border trade business and international settlement should be one of the focus areas for medium to large banks, especially listed banks, in recent years. The impact of this tariff incident still needs to be observed, and it is difficult to draw conclusions. A representative from a city commercial bank in East China told Financial Link reporters that after its listing a few years ago, the bank had also planned to establish overseas branches to expand its business, but this was halted due to regulatory reasons.

In recent investigations by Financial Link reporters, at least two insiders from listed city commercial banks stated that they initially judged the impact of the tariff incident on their annual revenue, profit, and other factors to be limited.

Many institutions that have recently released Research Reports generally believe that the disturbance caused by the tariff incident on the banking industry is limited, with the core logic being that the transmission chain is relatively long.

For example, Zhongtai, in a recent Research Report, pointed out that the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" on our banking industry includes: at the economic level, external demand weakening, export-related enterprises facing operational pressure, and the credit demand, loan interest rates, and asset quality of the related customer base facing pressure, but there are significant differences among different customer groups. At the policy level, policy easing measures may stimulate retail credit demand in the domestic sector, and lowering reserve requirements and interest rates reduces the funding costs for banks. At the investment level, the value of the banking sector's dividends increases, which helps to supplement capital.

The bank team of China International Capital Corporation pointed out in a recent Research Report that historical experience shows that during periods of declining export growth, domestic policies usually introduce more hedging measures, including increasing infrastructure investment and loosening real estate restrictions. This round of economic stimulus policies emphasizes improving residents' income and promoting consumption. For state-owned banks and regional banks, which have a relatively higher exposure to state-owned enterprises and infrastructure, asset quality tends to be more stable, while regional banks located in coastal provinces, with a high exposure to export industry chains, experience relatively greater impacts on asset quality.