Incident: The company released its 2024 annual report, achieving full year revenue of 3.59 billion yuan, net profit of 0.42 billion yuan, net profit of 0.42 billion yuan YoY, -14% YoY, net profit of 0.4 billion yuan (YoY), -17% YoY; looking at Q4 alone, the company achieved revenue of 1.1 billion yuan, -5%/+16% YoY, net profit to mother 0.08 billion yuan, -24%/-32% YoY (YoY), net profit of 0.06 billion yuan (YoY) 41%/-50%.
Multiple factors disrupt performance delivery, and the customer structure continues to be optimized. In 2024, the company's NEV customers accounted for more than 75% of the revenue. According to Marklines, the company's main downstream customers Tesla China/Ideal/Zero Run/NIO and SAIC Motor achieved sales of 92/50/0.29/0.22/2.47 million vehicles respectively in 2024, -3%/+33%/+102%/+41%/-28%. SAIC & Tesla sales pressure was the main factor in the decline in the company's revenue. Affected by factors such as increased asset depreciation and amortization, asset impairment charges, and partial cost increases, the company achieved gross margin/net profit margin of 21.1%/11.8%, year-on-year -2.1/-0.9pcts, of which the annual management expense ratio was 3.4%, +0.8pcts year on year. The main reason was that the company's integrated die-casting business was still climbing in production. Expenses increased due to the increase in management personnel of 2 subsidiary companies during the reporting period; in addition, various asset impairment preparations were calculated for the whole year, affecting net profit of 55.44 million yuan to mother This is the main reason for the decline in the company's profitability.
With thick and thin hair, the volume of integrated die-casting is about to be released. The company has a forward-looking integrated die-casting layout. Currently, it has put into operation a number of large-scale Bühler integrated die-casting production lines in Yancheng Doli and Anhui Daya, and was the first to achieve mass production and delivery of related products in 2023. The company's integrated die-casting customer orders continued to break through in 2024. Currently, it has been targeted by many customer projects such as NIO, Zero Run, and Ideal. It is expected that from the second half of 2025, it will gradually enter a large-scale mass production period, fully starting a new round of growth.
Investment advice: As a leading supplier of automotive stamping in China, we continue to be optimistic about the company's expansion in the field of integrated die-casting, and are expected to accelerate its growth into a white body assembly supplier. The company is expected to generate revenue of 4.75/5.82/7.11 billion yuan in 2025-2027, +32%/+23%/+22% year over year, net profit to mother 0.57/0.71/0.86 billion yuan, and +34%/+25%/+22% year over year, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New business development falls short of expectations; customer sales fall short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.
