China Merchants is Bullish on the trend of the humanoid robot industry and maintains a "Recommend" rating for the Sector.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, China Merchants has released a Research Report stating that 2025 is expected to be the first year of mass production for humanoid robots. Tesla possesses world-leading computing power, chips, models, data, Hardware, and application scenarios (automobile manufacturing plants), making it the company closest to mass production status for general humanoid robots, and it is expected to continue leading the industry trend. Therefore, the firm suggests paying close attention to companies in the T-chain. The firm is Bullish on the large trend of the humanoid robot industry and maintains a "recommended" rating for the Sector.
The main points from China Merchants are as follows:
Short-term adjustments do not change the industry trend.
The humanoid robot index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index since October 2024, becoming one of the main lines in the current market, with recent adjustments. The firm believes that the future application of humanoid robots to end-user demand has enormous potential, currently in the 0-1 phase of Thematic Investment, requiring more attention to event catalysts. It is normal for the primary market to experience a phase of cooling; progress on the industry side is smooth, and some main engine manufacturers are expected to enter small-scale mass production in the second half of this year, while new manufacturers are also entering the layout. Updates on progress will follow, so the Sector is not lacking in catalysts, and the firm remains Bullish on the entire Sector. Regarding individual stocks, as the industry continues to approach mass production, the firm believes that symbols with good positioning and high certainty are preferred.
2025 is expected to be the year of mass production for the humanoid robot industry.
Some main engine manufacturers (such as Tesla, Figure, UBTECH, and Zhiyuan, etc.) are already on the verge of mass production, expected to gradually enter small-scale mass production status. Major domestic manufacturing enterprises have accelerated their entry since 2024, likely to promote further industry development. In terms of complete Hardware, the main investment directions for core components include Harmonic Drive, planetary roller screws, dexterous hands, Sensors, and Lightweight.
Harmonic Drive: High technical barriers, concentrated competitive landscape.
Harmonic drives feature zero backlash, high precision, and high torque, with a high reduction ratio in a compact structure, suitable for the joints of humanoid robots. The barriers are primarily related to gear design, materials, processing, assembly, and inspection. Domestic harmonic drives have basically replaced imports, with Leader Harmonious Drive Systems being the leading domestic brand.
Planetary ball screw: Low localization rate, mass production is key.
Planetary ball screws have a compact structure, suitable for scenarios with stringent requirements for installation space and quality and require integrated design, featuring high load capacity. However, the difficulty in processing long nuts significantly increases. In the past, European and American companies were the dominant players in the reverse planetary ball screw industry. Domestic companies are expected to surpass them, primarily because European companies are more conservative and cautious regarding capital expenditure when faced with new trends and directions. Therefore, once domestic companies achieve product breakthroughs, they are more likely to become mainstream suppliers.
Dexterous hands: Composed of drive + transmission + sensor devices, multiple technology routes coexist.
The main components of dexterous hands include Hollow Cup Motors, screws, and transmission gears, with specific hardware solutions determined by application scenarios and required functions. Ultimately, multiple solutions may coexist to meet different needs. The challenge with Hollow Cup Motors lies in winding, with first-tier competitors being European and American companies, including Swiss Maxon, German Faulhaber, and Swiss Portescap, who entered early and have a high global market share. Domestic manufacturers such as Shanghai Moons'Electric and Dingzhi Technology are gradually opening up the market through localized sales strategies.
Sensors: Essential components with comprehensive functionality, six-dimensional force is the most challenging.
Currently, the main applications are tactile sensors, force/torque sensors (one-dimensional/three-dimensional/six-dimensional), IMUs, and thermal management-related sensors (reference vehicles), with six-dimensional force being the most difficult. Leading global companies are concentrated in Europe and America, where they started early and have rich product offerings. Domestic Kunwei Technology has a high shipment volume in the robotics field. According to data from Gao Gong Robotics, in the field of collaborative robots, Kunwei Technology was the top shipper in 2022, with a market share of approximately 60%.
Lightweight: the trend is clear, but the plan is not yet determined.
Lightweight design is beneficial for improving sports performance, extending endurance, while also reducing motion inertia and enhancing action accuracy, which is of significant importance for fine and flexible tasks. Therefore, it is a direction that major manufacturers continue to explore. Current options include Aluminum Alloy, Magnesium Alloy, PEEK, TPV, etc.
Risk warning: Progress in the XINXINGCHANYE is slower than expected, market competition is intensifying, and there are significant fluctuations in the prices of raw materials and components.
