消息面上，4月4日，中国宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征34%关税。且值得一提的是，这是在3月4日宣布对原产于美国部分农产品加征关税基础上的进一步加征，对鸡肉、玉米、大豆、猪肉等多类农产品的关税累计加征比例已达49%或44%。① How is the logic of countermeasures interpreting the growing risk aversion in the market? ② What is the logic behind the resilience of the Agriculture Sector in the Hong Kong stock market against the trend?
According to a report by Financial Associated Press on April 7 (Editor: Feng Yi), the Hong Kong stock market overall declined due to tariff risk shocks, but the Agriculture Sector strengthened against the trend due to potential upward pressure on grain prices from tariff factors.
As of the time of writing, $SHIYUE DAOTIAN (09676.HK)$Increased by more than 31%, reaching nearly a 40% increase at one point during trading. $MIN FU INTL (08511.HK)$Increased by over 15%, $DU DU HLDGS (08250.HK)$ An increase of nearly 14%,$DEKON AGR (02419.HK)$An increase of over 5%. In addition, during the trading session, many stocks in the A-share Agriculture Sector also continued to strengthen, highlighting short-term risk-averse properties.
On the news front, on April 4, China announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the USA. It is worth mentioning that this is an additional levy on top of the tariffs announced on March 4 for certain agricultural products from the USA, with the cumulative tariff increase for various agricultural products including chicken, Corn, Soybean, and Pork reaching 49% or 44%.
Analysis indicates that the increase in import tariffs may lead to a reduction in agricultural product imports, thereby boosting domestic agricultural product demand. Therefore, Agriculture and other anti-tariff varieties may also become one of the risk-averse options in the market.
Furthermore, according to the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, the price Index for CSI Commodity Equity Index in March showed continuous month-on-month increases in agricultural product prices, driven by a sustained recovery in the consumer market, which also brought fundamental Bullish catalysts to the Agriculture Sector.
According to a report by Guosen on April 6, in terms of agricultural products, the major varieties imported from the USA that account for a large share of domestic consumption are: sorghum, Soybean, Cotton, beef, and Corn.
Guosen believes that the increased tariffs on the USA will further raise Corn import costs, and the prices of Corn are expected to continue rising, which will boost the seed industry from a cyclical perspective. Moreover, the seed industry has previously faced significant inventory pressure and is currently at the bottom of the cycle. On the other hand, the total volume of beef imports from abroad is also expected to shrink significantly in the future, as related industry chain companies' valuations are at the bottom, and the combination of a fundamental turnaround and market sentiment attention is expected to lead to better performance.
However, at present, the path and ultimate scenario of tariff risks remain unclear. Huatai Futures recently reminded in a report that continuous attention needs to be paid to the specific implementation and changes of policies, as well as the progress of international trade negotiations, as these factors will have a significant impact on the global agricultural products trade pattern and market prices.
Editor/rice
