Source: Wall Street Journal.

Non-farm data indicates a strong job market in the USA, but on Friday, the global trade war escalated, and Powell's speech failed to stabilize the market, leading to a second consecutive day of sharp declines in US stocks, thus creating the largest weekly drop since the pandemic peak, with the Nasdaq entering a technical bear market. Commodities have plummeted for consecutive days, and the risk-averse trend has driven US Treasury prices to soar, leading to a rebound in the dollar that was previously sold off on Thursday.

In March, non-farm employment in the USA grew more than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased as labor force participation rose. The employment report reflects that the labor market remains healthy ahead of the tariff impacts. However, the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are provoking retaliations from more trading partners.

According to CCTV News, China has launched 11 countermeasures, imposing a 34% tariff on the USA and heavy export controls on rare earths starting April 10 at noon. According to Xinhua, public opinion generally believes that the unilateral actions by the US side will severely drag down the global economy and bring significant impacts to the USA itself. International mainstream media and market investors have begun to frequently use the term 'Trump recession.'

Global markets sound the alarm for recession, with investors collectively hitting the brakes on risk, widely concerned that the escalation of the trade war will exacerbate the global economic slowdown or even trigger a recession. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has also rejected Trump's latest calls for interest rate cuts, stating that the increase in tariffs far exceeds expectations and may continue to drive up inflation, with the economic outlook being highly uncertain, insisting on waiting for the situation to clarify before considering rate cuts.

Unlike Trump’s first term 1.0, since the start of Trump 2.0, European and American stock markets have suffered severely. By this Friday, the pan-European index has fallen into an adjustment range, following Thursday's Russell 2000, the Nasdaq became the second major US stock index to enter a bear market.

European and American stock markets and Crude Oil Product and other commodities have plunged, prompting investors to flock to the bond market for safety, pushing prices of US and European government bonds higher and yields down further. After Powell reiterated he was in no hurry to cut rates, the dollar accelerated its rebound, and the decline of US Treasury yields narrowed, with the two-year US Treasury yield, which had approached a two-year low, erasing most of its declines.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell nearly 6% this week, marking the largest weekly decline in over a year, even the traditionally safe haven of Gold turned down due to declines on Thursday and Friday throughout the week. However, Gold still maintained its cumulative upward momentum for the year.

The three major indices fell for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 experiencing its largest daily and weekly declines since March 2020, the Dow Jones recorded its largest drop in over two days since June 2020, and the Nasdaq had dropped 22% from its record high in December last year, entering a bear market range, while tech giants like Apple saw intensified declines, and economically sensitive bank stocks also plummeted:

The major U.S. stock indices closed down by at least more than 4%, with all three major indices down by at least more than 5%, and the S&P 500 approximately down 10% over the two days:

• The S&P 500 closed down 5.97%, falling over 17% from the record high in February. The Dow closed down by 2231.07 points, a drop of 5.5%, nearly 15% off its record high in December last year, both hitting their lowest levels since May last year. The Nasdaq closed down 5.82%, reaching its lowest point since April last year.

• The combined market cap of the S&P 500 evaporated by about 5.4 trillion USD over the last two days.

  
  

• The Russell 2000, primarily consisting of value stocks, fell by 4.37%, while the Nasdaq 100, which is heavily weighted with tech stocks, closed down 6.07%. Below are the movements of the three major indices and the Russell 2000 on Thursday and Friday.

  
  

• The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, fell by 6.01%, with a cumulative decline of 11.23% this week.

• Due to large drops on Thursday and Friday, the major stock indices collectively posted cumulative declines this week, with all indices down for two consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 cumulatively fell 9.08%, the Nasdaq fell 10.02%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 9.77%, the Russell 2000 fell 9.70%, and the Dow fell 7.86%.

The VIX, a measure of volatility in the USA stock market, rose by nearly 51%, reaching a new high since March 2020 and recording the largest weekly increase since February 2020.

All USA stock ETFs collapsed on Friday, with the Energy Sector ETF leading the decline.

• The Energy sector ETF fell by 9.2%, the Semiconductors ETF and Financials ETF dropped by up to 7.55%, the Technology sector ETF and Global Technology Stock Index ETF declined by up to 6.59%, the Global Aviation ETF, Medical ETF, Internet Stock Index ETF, and Biotechnology Index ETF fell by up to 5.54%, the Consumer Discretionary ETF, Banks ETF, and Regional Banks ETF dropped by up to 4.31%.

  
  

The 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks closed down at least 3% on Friday, with a total market cap evaporating by $1.4 trillion over the week, setting a record for the largest weekly drop.

• Tesla had the highest drop, closing down over 10.4%, NVIDIA fell nearly 7.4%, Apple dropped about 7.3%, Meta decreased by nearly 5.1%, Amazon fell close to 4.2%, Microsoft declined nearly 3.6%, and Alphabet fell 3.2%.

• This week, NVIDIA, Apple, Meta, and Amazon all declined over 10%, with respective drops of about 14%, 13.6%, 12.5%, and 11.3%; Tesla fell nearly 9.2%, Alphabet dropped over 5.3%, and Microsoft decreased by 5%.

Chip stocks faced a general decline.

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed down 7.6%. Micron Technology fell nearly 13%, Intel dropped 11.5%, AMD decreased by nearly 8.6%, and Taiwan Semiconductor's US stock fell 6.7%.

AI concept stocks generally declined.

• Applovin dropped nearly 16.3%, Palantir fell nearly 11.5%, BullFrog AI declined by 7.8%, and Dell fell over 7.2%.

Bank stocks plummeted.

• The overall banking industry indicator, KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX), fell 6.6%. Among major Wall Street firms, Goldman Sachs closed down 7.9%, Citigroup closed down 7.8%, Bank of America fell 7.6%, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both dropped 7.5%, and Wells Fargo & Co fell nearly 7.2%.

China Concept Stocks fell broadly.

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down nearly 8.9%. Among popular China Concept Stocks, Bilibili fell 13.5%, ZEEKR dropped 10.1%, Alibaba declined nearly 10%, PDD Holdings decreased by 8.3%, and "Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto" all fell at least 7%.

Other key stocks include.

• DuPont fell nearly 12.8%, and DuPont's China Group Co., Ltd. is suspected of violating antitrust laws, leading China's market regulatory authority to decide to file an investigation according to law.

• After clarifying the social media information regarding Trump mentioning Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares led by Buffett fell by 6.91%.

The pan-European stock index fell over 5%, marking the largest decline since 2020, with an overall drop of over 8% for the week; among the sectors most sensitive to the economy, Banks declined over 8%, leading the drop for two consecutive days.

• The pan-European stock index fell for the third consecutive day, marking the largest drop since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. The STOXX 600 index closed down by 5.12%, hitting its lowest level since August 7, 2024, down nearly 11.9% from the high on March 3 of this year, and entered the correction range with a cumulative drop of 8.44% for the week.

• Among the sectors in the STOXX 600, Banks fell by over 8.4%, while the Oil & Gas and Basic Resources sectors, dragged down by the significant drop in Crude Oil and Copper, declined by over 7.1% and nearly 7.9% respectively. For the week, Banks, Oil & Gas, and Basic Resources all accumulated declines of over 10%, Technology fell by nearly 9%, and Autos dropped by over 8%.

• Major European country stock indices continued to decline on Friday, with at least a drop of over 4%. The Italian stock index led the decline with a drop of over 6%. The stock indices of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy all experienced three consecutive declines, while the Spanish stock index fell for two consecutive days.

• This week, stock indices from various countries collectively accumulated declines, with German stocks falling for four consecutive weeks, and the French, Italian, and Spanish stocks declining for two consecutive weeks. The UK stocks that had risen for two weeks saw a pullback, with Italian stocks dropping over 10%; other indices fell by at least over 6%.
  

U.S. and European bonds saw consecutive price increases over two days, with yields continuing to decline. On Friday, during the trading session, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds once plummeted by over 20 basis points, nearing the lowest level in more than two years; after Powell's speech, it accelerated its rebound, at one point erasing the drop in yield. Due to tariff impacts, yields fell by over 20 basis points this week.

• In the European bond market, at the end of the bond trading session, the yield on the benchmark 10-year UK government bonds was about 4.45%, having decreased by about 7 basis points during the day, with a cumulative decline of about 25 basis points for the week, marking a decrease for two consecutive weeks; the benchmark 10-year German government bond yield was about 2.57%, having decreased by about 8 basis points during the day, with a cumulative decline of about 15 basis points for the week, also a decrease for three consecutive weeks.

• The yield on the 10-year benchmark government bonds in the USA dropped below 3.86% during the European stock market session, reaching a six-month low, with a decrease of nearly 17 basis points. It later rebounded, and the US stock market at midday crossed back over 4.01%, and by the end of the bond market, it was about 3.99%, dropping nearly 4 basis points during the day, marking six consecutive days of decline, totaling a drop of about 26 basis points this week.

• The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bonds dropped below 3.47% during the European stock market session, approaching the lowest level since September 2022, declining by about 22 basis points for the day. After Powell's speech, it tested 3.68% before settling around 3.65% at the end of the bond market, a drop of about 3 basis points for the day, marking three consecutive days of decline, totaling roughly 26 basis points this week, the third consecutive week of decline.
  

After the US non-farm employment report, the USD turned to rise, hitting a daily high after Powell's speech with an increase of over 1%. The yen fell 2% after reaching a six-month high. The offshore yuan rose above 7.24 at one point for a two-week high before retreating more than 600 points. After Trump extended the grace period for the TikTok ban, Bitcoin rebounded nearly $3000, exceeding the 0.085 million mark.

• The ICE USD Index (DXY) turned to rise during pre-market trading before the US non-farm employment report was released. Following Powell's speech, it hit a midday high with nearly a 1.1% increase. By the end of the Forex market on Friday, the dollar index was slightly below 102.90, increasing 0.8% for the day, rebounding after two consecutive declines, and declined by 1.1% this week, marking two consecutive weeks of decline.

• As the USD rebounded during the day, non-USD currencies generally depreciated, including the yen, which had a significant rebound on Thursday. The USD/JPY fell to 144.56 during the European stock market session, a six-month low, and later showed a continuous rebound, refreshing the midday high at 147.43 after the US stock market turned to rise, nearly a 2% increase from the day’s low.

• The offshore yuan (CNH) against the USD rose to 7.2393 at the beginning of the European market, reaching the highest point since March 20. It later continued to decline, falling to 7.3003, a daily low, after the US stock market opened lower, down 610 points from the daily high.

• At 4:59 AM Beijing time on April 5, the offshore yuan against the USD was reported at 7.2951, down 147 points from Thursday's New York closing, totaling a decline of 247 points this week, marking three consecutive weeks of decline.

• After the US employment report was released on Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated upward. Following Trump's announcement regarding TikTok, Bitcoin briefly broke through $0.0845 million during US midday trading, approaching a daily high, rebounding over $2800 from the daily low seen during European trading, an increase of over 3%.

• At the close of the US stock market, Bitcoin approached $0.084 million, rising more than 2% in the last 24 hours and about 0.2% in the past seven days.
  

Concerns about recession triggered by tariffs, along with Saudi Arabia and other eight OPEC+ production cut countries deciding to increase production starting in April, have led to crude oil posting its largest daily drop in over two and a half years for two consecutive days, closing at a new low not seen in over three years on Friday, with US oil falling nearly 10% at one point during the session.

• International crude oil futures further plummeted after a significant pullback on Thursday, hitting the largest closing drop since July 2022 on two consecutive days, refreshing the closing lows since February 2021. WTI May crude oil futures closed down nearly 7.41% at $61.99 per barrel; Brent June crude oil futures closed down 6.50% at $65.58 per barrel.

• Due to heavy losses on Thursday and Friday, crude oil significantly accumulated losses this week, with US oil down over 10.62% and Brent oil down nearly 9.87%, both retracing after three consecutive weeks of gains.

• US gasoline and natural gas futures both fell. NYMEX May gasoline futures closed down about 5.1% at $2.0545 per gallon, marking two consecutive declines, and accumulated a drop of 8.4% this week; NYMEX May natural gas futures, which had increased for two consecutive weeks, fell over 7.27% to $3.8370 per million BTUs, accumulating a drop of about 5.61% this week.

Base metals and precious metals continued to decline throughout the session. Spot gold fell over 3% to a one-week low, ending a four-week rally. When the US stock market refreshed its daily low during midday, New York spot silver fell nearly 9%, and New York spot copper fell nearly 9.5%. London copper dropped over 6% to a new low for the year, with a weekly decline exceeding 10%, while London aluminum fell for 12 consecutive days and four weeks straight. New York copper experienced the largest weekly decline since the early days of the pandemic.

• Gold turned from a downturn to an upturn more than once in the early morning session in Asia, but ultimately turned back down. When the US stock market refreshed lows since March 26 during midday, futures gold dropped to $3032.7, down nearly 2.9% intraday, while spot gold fell below $3015.90, down nearly 3.2% intraday.

• At the close, COMEX June gold futures fell 2.76% to $3035.4 per ounce, accumulating a decline of 2.53% this week; at the close of the US stock market, spot gold was below $3037.40, down about 2.5% intraday, accumulating a drop of over 1.5% this week.

• Silver Futures in New York fell for two consecutive days, with COMEX May Silver Futures closing down 8.57% at $29.23 per ounce, a cumulative decline of about 16% this week, retreating after last week's rebound.

• New York copper futures fell for two consecutive days, with COMEX May Copper Futures closing down 8.83% at $4.402 per pound, marking a nearly two-month low, with a cumulative drop of about 14.2% this week, ending a four-week rise.

• London's base metal futures fell across the board on Friday, with declines of more than 2% at least. London copper led the decline for two consecutive days, dropping to the lowest level since the end of last year. London aluminum fell for 12 consecutive days, hitting a nearly seven-month low for two consecutive days. London zinc fell for eight consecutive days to the lowest level in nearly eight months. London lead fell for seven consecutive days, reaching a low not seen in over two and a half years.

• Due to the significant decline on Friday, all base metals accumulated losses this week, with the leading London copper falling over 10% and dropping for two consecutive weeks. London nickel fell nearly 10%, and both London lead and London tin retreated after last week’s rebound. London aluminum fell over 6% for four consecutive weeks, and London zinc dropped 7% for three consecutive weeks.

• LME copper futures closed down 6.25%, with a cumulative drop of 10.35% this week. LME nickel futures closed down 6.19%, at $14,758 per ton, with a cumulative drop of 9.90% this week. LME tin futures closed down 5.24%, with a cumulative drop of 2.32% this week.

• LME aluminum futures closed down about 2.86%, with a cumulative drop of 6.67% this week. LME lead futures closed down 2.55%, with a cumulative drop of 5.92% this week. LME zinc futures closed down 2.06%, with a cumulative drop of 7.0% this week.

Editor/jayden