Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, nearing one-month highs as investors weighed tightening crude supplies against escalating global trade tensions.
Brent crude futures rose US$0.24 (0.3%) to US$74.03 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained US$0.27 to US$69.92. The uptick followed a 1% jump on Wednesday, marking the highest levels since February.
US President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and light trucks, set to take effect next week, have raised concerns over a potential economic slowdown that could dampen oil demand.
Meanwhile, additional tariffs on Venezuelan crude buyers prompted India's Reliance Industries to halt imports from the South American nation.
Tighter US Crude SuppliesOil prices found support from a 3.3-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories last week, far exceeding the expected 956,000-barrel decline.
The data signaled tightening supply conditions, despite uncertainty surrounding global demand.
Despite recent gains, analysts remain cautious about oil returning to early 2025 highs. DBS Bank's energy sector lead, Suvro Sarkar, noted that US policy uncertainty and trade risks could weigh on long-term prices.
With markets balancing supply concerns against trade-driven demand risks, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the coming weeks.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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