① The US, Russia, and Ukraine disclosed the results of talks with Saudi Arabia, reaching a consensus on a ceasefire in the Black Sea. ② Consumer confidence in the USA further deteriorated in March. ③ The three major US stock indices rose on Tuesday, while popular China Concept Stocks declined. ④ Data shows that US stocks are in a state of 'Institutions fleeing, retail investors buying heavily.' ⑤ Sources say Trump is considering implementing a two-step tariff system on April 2nd. ⑥ Morgan Stanley raised its year-end target point for the Hang Seng Index.
According to the Financial Association on March 26 (Editor: Tong Gu), the major news for Hong Kong stocks this morning includes:
Hot News
[US, Russia, and Ukraine disclose results of talks with Saudi Arabia: consensus reached on a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but significant differences in expression among parties]
The White House stated that it agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea through negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, while helping Russia restore agricultural and fertilizer exports; the Kremlin's statement indicated that the prerequisite for restoring the Black Sea initiative is the cancellation of a number of financial, shipping, and trade sanctions against Russia; Ukrainian President Zelensky independently announced the ceasefire agreement's effectiveness and publicly named Trump.
[Consumer confidence in the USA further deteriorated in March, with indicators showing a recession is imminent]
The US Consumer Confidence Index has declined for the fourth consecutive month, dropping to its lowest level in four years at 92.9; the expectation indicators are far below 80, possibly indicating an impending economic recession; the Trump administration has largely downplayed the impact of declining consumer expectations.
[Trump considering implementing a two-step tariff system on April 2nd]
According to the Financial Times of the United Kingdom, President Trump of the USA is looking at a two-step tariff plan to be introduced on April 2, which includes the immediate imposition of tariffs as high as 50%. The Financial Times quoted lawyers and informed sources saying that Trump may immediately implement tariffs on Autos. The Trump team is also discussing initiating a so-called 301 investigation against trade partners. Another option being discussed is linked to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, allowing for temporary tariffs not exceeding 15%.
[Data shows that the US stock market is in a state of 'Institutions fleeing and Retail investors buying heavily']
According to VandaTrack, since the beginning of this year, retail investors' net inflow into US stocks and ETFs has reached 67 billion USD, which is slightly lower than the 71 billion USD in the fourth quarter of last year. Goldman Sachs' data also shows that despite 25 down trading days for the S&P 500 Index this year, retail investors only net sold stocks on 7 of those days. Meanwhile, Bank of America has tracked that large institutional investors made the 'largest cut ever' in their allocations to US stocks in March this year.
[Morgan Stanley raises year-end target for the Hang Seng Index]
Morgan Stanley's outlook on Chinese stocks has become more optimistic, stating that the listed companies' fourth quarter performance exceeded revised expectations and valuations have more room for improvement compared to Emerging Markets. Strategists at Morgan Stanley, including Laura Wang and Jonathan Garner, raised the year-end 2025 target for the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, MSCI Chinese Index, and CSI 300 Index to 25,800, 9,500, 83, and 4,220 points respectively, which implies an upside of 9%, 9%, 9%, and 8% from current price levels. The firm's previous targets for these indices were 24,000, 8,600, 77 points, and 4,200 points respectively.
Global Markets
The three major US stock indices rose on Tuesday due to a last-minute rally. By the end of trading, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.16%, closing at 5,776.65 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.46%, closing at 18,271.86 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01%, closing at 42,587.5 points.
Most of the major US tech giants closed higher. Apple rose 1.37%, Microsoft rose 0.53%, Amazon rose 1.21%, NVIDIA fell 0.59%, Alphabet-A rose 1.72%, Tesla rose 3.50%, Meta rose 1.21%, and AMD rose 0.84%.
China Concept Stocks continue to adjust, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.22% on Tuesday. By the end of trading, Alibaba fell 1.29%, JD.com fell 2.58%, Baidu fell 0.51%, PDD Holdings fell 2.24%, Bilibili fell 2.82%, NIO rose 0.23%, NetEase fell 0.19%, Futu Holdings Ltd rose 0.21%, Li Auto fell 0.53%, XPeng Motors fell 1.75%, and EHang fell 3.17%.
The three major Hong Kong stock indices generally fell on Tuesday. By the end of trading, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.35% to 23,344.25 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 2.65% to 8,616.05 points; the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 3.82% to 5,517.52 points.
From the market performance, the sectors of AI Technology, Consumer Electronics, and Autos saw the largest declines; Gold, Nonferrous metals, and the Aviation/airlines Industry rose against the trend.
Southbound funds
According to data from WIND, southbound funds traded approximately 110.674 billion Hong Kong dollars on Tuesday, accounting for about 38.79% of the total transaction of the Hang Seng Index, with the share proportion continuing to decline in recent days. The net inflow for the whole day was 13.895 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a net inflow of about 8.479 billion Hong Kong dollars for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net inflow of about 5.416 billion Hong Kong dollars for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Company News
Apple Inc.: announced that the annual developer conference WWDC25 will be held from June 9 to 13 this year, with the most anticipated special event taking place on June 9 at Apple Park. According to insiders, the iOS 19 system to be released at WWDC is said to be the "biggest innovation" since iOS 7 in 2013, with significant changes to the design and interaction methods of various windows, icons, and menus.
CHINA TELECOM (00728): Operating income for 2024 is projected to be 529.417 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year; net income is projected to be 33.012 billion yuan, an increase of 8.43% year-on-year.
CM BANK (03968): In 2024, net operating income reached 337.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.58%; net income was 148.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.22%.
WH GROUP (00288): In 2024, revenue was 25.941 billion USD, a decrease of 1.12% year-on-year; net income was 1.612 billion USD, an increase of 156.28% year-on-year.
KUAISHOU-W (01024): In 2024, revenue reached 126.898 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; net income was 15.335 billion yuan, an increase of 139.76% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average daily active users continued to maintain above 0.4 billion.
Sinotrans Limited (00598): In 2024, revenue was approximately 105.621 billion yuan, an increase of 3.79% year-on-year; net income was approximately 3.918 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.05% year-on-year. This is mainly due to weak market demand, intensified competition, and clients strengthening their control over logistics costs.
CHINA CINDA (01359): In 2024, total revenue was approximately 73.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.11% year-on-year; net income was 3.0364 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.84% year-on-year.
CHINA JINMAO (00817): In 2024, revenue was 59.053 billion yuan, and net income was approximately 1.065 billion yuan. This was mainly due to the ongoing strengthening of lean management, with efforts to control costs and improve efficiency, resulting in a decrease in management expenses, sales and marketing costs, and financing costs this year.
CHINA OILFIELD SERVICES (02883): In 2024, revenue was 48.302 billion yuan, an increase of 9.51% year-on-year; net income was 3.137 billion yuan, an increase of 4.11% year-on-year.
NONGFU SPRING (09633): In 2024, revenue was 42.896 billion yuan, an increase of 0.54% year-on-year; net income was 12.123 billion yuan, an increase of 0.36% year-on-year.
Contemporary Amperex Technology: Issued H shares and obtained filing from the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Wandiyun (02602): Total revenue for 2024 is 36.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%; net profit is 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.19%.
Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313): Revenue for 2024 is 28.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; net profit is 6.2406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%. During the period, the gross margin improved by 3.8 percentage points to 28.1% compared to the previous year.
CGN NEW ENERGY (01811): Revenue is 1.951 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 11.02%; net profit is 0.248 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%.
WUXI BIO (02269): Revenue for 2024 is 18.6754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; adjusted net profit is 4.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. During the period, 151 new comprehensive projects were added, bringing the total number of comprehensive projects to 817 as of December 31, 2024.
YIHAI INTL (01579): Revenue for 2024 is 6.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; net profit is 0.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.28%.
CANSINOBIO (06185): Revenue for 2024 is approximately 0.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139.0%; the annual loss attributable to owners of the company is approximately 0.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 74.45%; loss per share is 1.53 yuan.
GREENLAND HK (00337): The expected net loss for 2024 is between approximately 1.8 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan.
Important data
20:30 USA February Durable Goods Order Month-on-Month Preliminary Value
22:30 USA EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change for the week ending March 21
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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