CIBC私人财富集团(CIBC Private Wealth Group)高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin表示，购买此类合约“说明了两个相互矛盾的主题——对经济增长放缓导致需求放缓的担忧，以及制裁可能导致的市场吃紧”。
Traders are actively buying Call Options on oil to hedge against the risk of soaring oil prices due to USA government sanctions. It is reported that approximately 0.231 million Call Options on Brent Crude Oil were traded on Monday, the highest level since President Biden imposed comprehensive sanctions on the Russian oil industry before January 10. In Monday's trading, there was a focus on bets that Brent Crude Oil will rise to $100 per barrel by June.
On February 4, USA President Trump signed a presidential memorandum to resume the series of "maximum pressure" measures implemented against Iran during his first presidential term, including seeking to reduce Iran's oil exports to "zero". This month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran's oil minister and targeted more companies and vessels related to Iran's "shadow fleet" used to evade sanctions.
Meanwhile, the USA White House recently stated that Trump has signed an executive order imposing "tariff sanctions" on countries importing Venezuelan oil. The statement indicated that starting April 2, the USA may impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from any country that directly or indirectly imports Venezuelan oil.
Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, stated that the purchase of such contracts "reflects two conflicting themes — concerns over demand slowing due to economic growth deceleration, and the market tightening potentially caused by sanctions."
Although Brent Crude Oil Futures prices briefly fell below $70 per barrel earlier this year, oil prices have since rebounded due to threats from Trump's tariff policies, risks of implementing destructive sanctions on major oil-producing countries, and increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Oil Options pricing is also slightly optimistic. The premium of Put Options relative to Call Options is at its lowest in over a month. Mukesh Sahdev, Global Head of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, stated that if USA restrictions on oil-producing countries continue into summer, or if OPEC+ remains restrained in lifting production limits, oil prices could reach the Range of $85 to $90 per barrel.
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Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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