Source: Wall Street Journal.

The reports of Trump possibly imposing tariffs have significantly decreased. According to Jiemian News, the Trump administration is considering a two-step tariff strategy against trade partners, first using rarely utilized emergency powers to impose tariffs immediately while formally investigating trade partners.

"Soft data" continues to deteriorate, with the Philadelphia Fed Services Index falling to its lowest level since the pandemic, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declining for four consecutive months, which intensifies recession expectations. In particular, the expectations index dropped to 65.2, a new 12-year low, far below the critical threshold of 80 that indicates a recession. Short-term inflation expectations rose to 6.2%, with nearly half of consumers expecting the US economy to fall into recession.

This data directly impacted the bond market, leading to a significant decline in US bond yields. In contrast, the German Business Expectations Index reached its highest level since last June, and Merz's spending plans boosted market confidence, with German stocks rising 1.13%, leading the gains in Europe. Additionally, a survey showed that more than half of US CFOs predict an economic recession in the second half of the year. Moody's warned that the fiscal strength of the US continues to weaken, exacerbating debt pressure.

Other "hard data" remained stable, with leading indicators of the US housing market—new home sales in February rebounding, increasing by 1.8% month-on-month, although below expectations, it was better than the 10.5% drop from the previous month, with home prices down 1.5% year-on-year. Eastspring economists noted that the current data mainly reflects the economic conditions before the implementation of tariffs, and hard data post-tariff will not emerge until April and May. Bank of America believes investors should focus on hard data while ignoring soft data, recommending to "watch their actions, not listen to their words."

On the geopolitical front, on March 25 local time, the US released a statement regarding talks with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia. The three parties reached partial consensus, including ensuring navigation safety in the Black Sea and the prohibition of using force; the US will assist in the smooth export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers; and all parties agreed to ensure that energy facilities are not attacked.

After the announcement, oil prices turned downward, and European and American fertilizer concept stocks generally declined, with CF Industries Holdings falling over 3%, Mosaic Company (MOS) down about 3.5%, and FMC Corporation dropping about 1.4%; K+S AG and Yara International Group saw stock prices fall over 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively. Subsequently, Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed the agreement's effectiveness and stated that he would directly appeal to the US in case of any breach.

Benefiting from Trump's possible plans to ease tariffs, the three major stock indexes in the USA rose slightly, continuing Wall Street's gains from Monday:

The three major US stock indices saw an overall increase.

• The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.01%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.46%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.53%.

• The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech components, closed up 0.45%.

• The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index closed down 0.66%. The VIX fear index closed down 1.89%, reporting at 17.15.

The performance of US industry ETFs was mixed.

• The Internet Stock Index ETF rose by 0.9%, and the Consumer Discretionary ETF rose by 0.8%.

• The Financial Industry ETF, Energy Industry ETF, Global Technology Stock Index ETF, and Technology Industry ETF also rose between 0.56% and 0.33%.

• The Semiconductor ETF fell by 0.42%, the Global Aviation Industry ETF dropped by 1.01%, and the Medical Industry ETF declined by 1.28%.

• The Utilities ETF decreased by 1.6%, and the Biotechnology Index ETF fell by 1.73%.

On the investment research strategy front.

• Ilan Benhamou from JPMorgan believes that as tariff policies become clearer, key risks have eased, reducing market concerns about an unexpected escalation of the trade war. Therefore, the recently popular strategy of selling U.S. stocks on highs should be paused, as previously, investors adopted this strategy due to pessimistic sentiment.

• Last week, Bank of America clients sold technology stocks at a record high, with institutions and hedge funds being net sellers, while retail clients were net buyers for the 15th consecutive week. Amid the tech stock sell-off, the net selling of U.S. stocks reached $5.8 billion, the largest since August of last year. Corporate client buybacks slowed, falling below seasonal levels for the third consecutive week. Clients sold five out of eleven sectors, led by Technology, Communications Services, and Consumer Staples, but the inflow into cyclical industries indicates that they are not repositioning for an economic recession.

• Bhanu Baweja, the chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank, stated that the U.S. stock market has not yet bottomed, and the S&P 500 Index could fall another 8% to 5300 points. With U.S. consumers feeling fatigued, indicators like employment expectations, spending outlook, and consumer confidence are raising alarm signals, and analysts are lowering future profit expectations.

• Morgan Stanley raised its target for the Chinese stock index, adopting a more bullish outlook for China, stating that corporate performance has exceeded expectations. The Hang Seng Index is expected to reach 25,800 points by the end of the year, while the Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF is anticipated to be 9,500 points.

• UBS expects that as the quarter-end approaches, approximately $100 billion in pension and target date fund inflows will drive the stock market up, reaching the highest level since March 2020.

Only NVIDIA of the Magnificent 7 has declined:

• The Magnificent 7 Index rose by about 0.9%, while the 'Trump Tariff Loser' Index fell by about 1%.

• Tesla rose by 3.45%, Google A rose by 1.72%, Apple rose by 1.37%, Meta and Amazon both rose by 1.21%, Microsoft rose by 0.53%, while NVIDIA fell by 0.59%.

• The European car market is sluggish, with February sales seeing the largest decline in five months, further reducing Tesla's market share.

Most chip stocks declined.

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell by 0.70%. The twofold long ETF on NVIDIA fell by 1.03%.

• Micron Technology fell by 2.85%, Broadcom fell by 1.56%, KLA Corp fell by 0.81%, while AMD rose by 0.84%.

AI concept stocks saw more declines than increases.

• BullFrog AI rose by 10.05%, CrowdStrike rose by 3.3%, and Applovin rose by 1.93%. Jet.AI fell by 8.25%, and Super Micro Computer fell by 2.59%.

Most China Concept Stocks decline.

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down by 1.22%. The FTSE A50 futures index closed up by 0.16% in the overnight session.

• Among ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed down by 3.12%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down by 2.25%, and the China Concept Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down by 1.57%.

• Among popular China concept stocks, Big Tree Cloud fell by 13.01%, 21Vianet fell by 5.67%, and GDS Holdings fell by 4.82%.

• Xiaoma Intelligent Mobility fell by 8.1%, PDD Holdings fell by 2.24%, TENCENT ADR fell by 0.8%, and Xiaomi Group ADR fell by 0.72%.

• NIO rose by 0.23%, Tencent Music rose by 0.49%, Canadian Solar rose by 0.57%, ZEEKR rose by 1.99%, and Daqo New Energy rose by 3.1%.

Other key stocks include.

• GameStop's stock rose over 7.4% after hours. Q4 net sales decreased by 28% year-on-year, but the plan is to emulate the strategy of "Bitcoin holders" by investing corporate funds into Bitcoin.

• The Real Estate sector declined, with US residential construction company KBH's stock falling 5%. Due to poor earnings reports, weak performance, and a lowered financial guidance for the year, this dragged down builder and construction product stocks. The CEO of KBH stated that consumers are becoming more cautious in their home buying decisions due to affordability issues and macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

• Trump Media & Technology Group rose 8.85% and plans to collaborate with Crypto.com to launch a Digital Currency ETF.

European stocks rose across the board. A survey showed that business confidence in Germany has improved, pushing the German stock index up 1.13% to lead the gains. Investors are betting on the AI boom, with SAP in Germany rising 1.3%, continuing its new status as "the highest market cap company in Europe."

European stocks:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed up 0.67%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed up 1.09%.

• The German stock index closed up 1.13%. The French stock index closed up 1.08%, the Italian stock index closed up 1.06%, and the UK stock index closed up 0.30%. The Spanish stock index rose 1.21%.

• UK oil giant Shell rose 1.5%, with plans to increase the shareholder dividend payout ratio to 40%-50% of operating cash flow, up from 30%-40%. Additionally, it will cut spending and increase investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations.

After the release of consumer confidence data from the USA, US Treasury yields hit a daily low. Germany's business confidence improved, with medium- to long-term German bond yields rising at least 2 basis points.

US Treasury:

• The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield fell by 2.13 basis points to 4.3133%.

• The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 1.93 basis points to 4.0153%.

European bonds:

• In late European trading, the 10-year German Treasury yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 2.798%. The 2-year German bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points.

• The 10-year UK Treasury yield rose by 3.9 basis points. The 2-year UK bond yield increased by 3.8 basis points.

• The 10-year French Treasury yield rose by 1.7 basis points. The 10-year Italian Treasury yield increased by 1.9 basis points.

Multiple economic indicators in the USA showed weakness, and after the USD reached a near three-week high, it reversed direction and ended a four-day gaining streak. The Japanese Yen rose over 0.5%, reclaiming the 150 mark. The offshore Renminbi fell below 7.27 during the day, reaching a two-week low, but later rebounded by a hundred points and turned positive. Bitcoin dipped below 0.087 million USD at one point and then surged by over 2000 USD.

USD:

• In New York's late session, the ICE USD Index fell by 0.09%, reporting 104.167 points.

• The Bloomberg USD Index fell by 0.12%, reporting 1270.29 points.

Non-USD currencies:

• In New York's late session, the Euro fell 0.07% against the USD, reporting 1.0793. The British Pound rose 0.15% against the USD. The USD fell 0.08% against the Swiss Franc.

• Among commodity currencies, the AUD rose 0.31% against the USD, the NZD rose 0.11% against the USD, while the USD fell 0.27% against the CAD.

Yen:

• In the New York closing, the USD/JPY fell 0.53%, quoting 149.91 yen.

Offshore Renminbi:

• The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) fell 20 points against the USD at the New York closing, quoting 7.2659 yuan, with overall trading during the day in a range of 7.2611-7.2714 yuan.

Cryptos:

• At the New York closing, the largest Market Cap leader, Bitcoin, fell 0.31%, quoting 88,145.00 USD.

• The second-largest, Ethereum, fell 0.84% at closing, quoting 2,074.00 USD.

Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Venezuela, supporting crude oil prices. After initially rising, oil prices turned to decline following a poor US Consumer Confidence Report released during Regular Trading Hours and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement:

WTI:

• WTI May Crude Oil Futures closed down $0.11, a decline of nearly 0.16%, at $69.00 per barrel.

Brent Oil:

• Brent May Crude Oil Futures closed up $0.02, an increase of nearly 0.03%, at $73.02 per barrel.

Natural Gas:

• US April Natural Gas Futures closed down 1.89%, at $3.8400 per million British thermal units.

• TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures fell over 2.10%, hitting a daily low of €41.275 per megawatt hour.

• ICE UK natural gas futures dropped 3.45%, reaching a daily low of 100.350 pence per kilocalorie.

Consumer confidence data influenced market sentiment, helping gold recover from yesterday's decline and once again breach the $3000 threshold. Due to market expectations that Trump may impose a 25% import tariff on copper, New York copper futures hit a historical high above $5.22.

Gold:

• COMEX Gold Futures rose by 0.35%, reported at 3026.30 USD/ounce.

• Spot Gold rose by 0.31% at the close, ending a trend of consecutive declines over the previous three trading days.

Silver:

• COMEX Silver Futures rose by 2.26%, reported at 34.205 USD/ounce.

• Spot Silver rose by 2.12% at the close, reported at 33.7220 USD/ounce.

Most London Industrial Metals rose:

• LME Copper closed up by 156 USD, reported at 10112 USD/ton. COMEX Copper Futures rose by 2.56%, reported at 5.2230 USD/pound.

• Since January of this year, the price of New Copper has surpassed that of London Copper, creating an unprecedented price gap and a surge in arbitrage opportunities.

• LME aluminum futures fell by 6 dollars. LME zinc futures rose by 26 dollars. LME lead futures rose by 48 dollars.

• LME nickel futures rose by 148 dollars. LME tin futures rose by 699 dollars. LME cobalt futures remained flat.

Editor/jayden