In recent months, Musk's high-profile involvement in politics and frequent political statements have led to a boycott of the Tesla brand in multiple markets globally, resulting in a significant drop in sales. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has consistently fallen, and it has accumulated a decline of over 31% to date.

However, recently Tesla's stock price rebounded, with a nearly 12% increase yesterday, marking the best single-day performance since November 6 of last year (the day after Trump won the election).

In the face of internal pressure from continuous declines, Musk encouraged employees to "hold onto stocks" during an all-staff meeting last Thursday, stating that the main model, Model Y, is expected to again become the "best-selling car in the world."

Meanwhile, the continuous influx of funds from individual investors has also become the "source of strength" for this rebound. According to reports, JPMorgan's retail trading data shows that as of last Thursday, retail investors had net bought Tesla stocks for 13 consecutive trading days, with a total investment of 8 billion USD, setting a new high in ten years.

Tesla will announce Q1 delivery data, and several institutions have lowered their expectations.

It is worth noting that Tesla will release its first-quarter delivery data on April 2, and the sales data will be a focal point of interest for investors, potentially stirring further fluctuations in the company's stock price. According to FactSet data, Wall Street expects Tesla's first-quarter sales to be 0.414 million units, while deliveries during the same period last year were 0.387 million units.

However, several institutions have recently lowered their delivery expectations for Tesla, with JPMorgan reducing the Q1 delivery forecast from the original 0.444 million units to 0.355 million units, a decrease of 20%.

JPMorgan pointed out that Tesla is facing multiple challenges, including the frequent adjustments to U.S. government tariff policies that increase supply chain uncertainty, the backlash caused by CEO Elon Musk's actions negatively impacting the brand image, and continuous sales declines in Europe while facing fierce competition in the Chinese market.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has lowered the Q1 delivery forecast for Tesla to 0.351 million vehicles, a decrease of over 9% year-on-year, compared to the previous prediction of 0.415 million vehicles. In addition, Morgan Stanley has revised its 2025 delivery forecast down from 1.924 million vehicles (a year-on-year increase of 7.5%) to 1.615 million vehicles (a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%) and has lowered the 2030 delivery forecast from 5.2 million vehicles to 4.7 million vehicles.

Analysts stated that the main reasons for the downgrade are increased market competition, an aging product line, and consumer hesitance due to negative brand sentiment and upcoming new products. Compared to the optimistic sentiment at the beginning of the year, investor views on Tesla have become more pessimistic; a survey by Morgan Stanley shows that about one-fifth of investors expect Tesla's deliveries to decline year-on-year by more than 10%.

Barclays also estimates Tesla's first-quarter delivery to be around 0.35 million vehicles (a year-on-year decline of 10%), significantly below market expectations. The bank believes that, given the weak data so far this quarter, investor expectations have been adjusted to this range.

Barclays stated that management had warned during the Q4 Earnings Report conference call that deliveries would decline and specifically pointed out the "several weeks of production capacity loss due to the global Model Y production switch." Additionally, Barclays believes that Tesla plans to launch a more affordable model in the second half of 2025, which could become a catalyst for sales growth in the second half of the year and drive Tesla to achieve annual delivery growth.

So far this year, Tesla's sales performance in China and Europe has not been optimistic. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla registered 16,888 new cars in February, a year-on-year decrease of 40%. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that Tesla's wholesale sales in China for February reached 30,688 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 49%, marking a new low in over two years.

The Trump administration is supportive of Tesla, and Cathie Wood reiterated the "tenfold increase in five years."

Amid the backdrop of declining Tesla sales, the Trump administration provided significant support. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo recently called on people to buy Tesla stock during a Television interview, stating, "(Tesla stock) will never be this cheap again."

White House Press Secretary Levitt stated last Thursday in response to a question about whether Raimondo's televised remarks were appropriate: "The Secretary of Commerce is reiterating that the President supports American-manufactured companies like Tesla that produce very good products for the American people."

Additionally, last week, President Trump stated that those who damage Tesla Autos could face up to 20 years in prison. He wrote on the Social Media platform on the 20th, "Those caught damaging Teslas will likely be sentenced to up to 20 years in prison, including those who fund the damage. We are looking for you."

Musk retweeted Trump's comments on platform X, adding the caption, "Those who fund attacks against Tesla are the worst of the worst."

According to reports, on March 24 local time, the FBI has established a special task force to investigate a series of attacks against Tesla. Earlier that day, police discovered several suspected "detonation devices" at a Tesla showroom in Austin, Texas, and the FBI has intervened to assist local law enforcement in the investigation.

Furthermore, despite Tesla's stock price having dropped over 30% this year, many of Musk's supporters have not lost confidence in him.

"Wooden sister" Cathie Wood stated that she remains optimistic about Tesla's prospects and expects the stock to reach $2,600 within five years, nearly a tenfold increase from the current stock price. At the recent HSBC Global Investment Summit, she also added that Tesla's developments in the humanoid robot field have not yet been incorporated into Ark Fund's price model predictions.

Regarding the sharp decline in Tesla's sales and deliveries in key markets such as Europe and China, Wooden sister believes that even if Tesla performs poorly in the Chinese market, it will only have a "short-term impact" on its stock price and will not affect Ark's five-year target price predictions for the stock. She pointed out that in terms of range and power metrics at specific price points, Tesla remains competitive compared to its Chinese rival BYD.

According to the information published on the Ark Fund website, as of March 24, Tesla remains the largest Hold Position in Cathie Wood's flagship fund, the Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK), accounting for 10% of the fund's allocation of $5.8 billion. However, this proportion has decreased from nearly 16% at the end of 2024, largely due to Tesla's significant stock price drop this year.

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Editor/jayden