美国总统特朗普的政府上个月给予雪佛龙公司直到4月3日的时间来结束其在委内瑞拉的业务。美国财政部在3月24日将这一期限延长至5月27日，允许雪佛龙继续将其与委内瑞拉国有PdV公司合资生产的原油进口到美国。The USA has extended the import license, bringing new variables to the Venezuelan crude oil market.
After the USA extended its license to import Venezuelan crude oil, Brent crude oil futures remained largely stable during the trading session in Asia.
As of 12:00 PM Beijing time, the price of the Brent crude oil May contract was $73.02 per barrel, an increase of 2 cents per barrel compared to the settlement price on March 24, with the daily contract up 84 cents per barrel; the WTI crude oil May contract price was $69.11 per barrel, unchanged from the March 24 settlement price, with the daily contract up 83 cents per barrel.
Last month, President Trump's administration gave Chevron until April 3 to end its business in Venezuela. The US Treasury extended this deadline to May 27 on March 24, allowing Chevron to continue to import crude oil produced in partnership with Venezuela's state-owned PdV company into the USA.
The extension of Chevron's presence in Venezuela marks a retreat for the Trump administration’s 'maximum pressure' campaign against Caracas. This decision allows Venezuelan crude oil to continue being imported into the USA for at least two more months, thereby preventing a potential collapse of Venezuela's total crude oil output.
Data from Argus and Kpler show that in 2024, Venezuela's average daily crude oil production will be 0.87 million barrels, with exports at 0.65 million barrels, of which about 0.27 million barrels will go to China and 0.23 million barrels to the USA. Independent refineries in China are preparing for a higher supply of Venezuelan crude oil after Chevron's production and export exemption expires on April 3.
Trump has also stated that he will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported into the USA from foreign countries that accept Venezuelan oil and gas. Trump has already imposed a 20% tariff on all imported goods from China; therefore, if new tariffs related to Venezuela are implemented, it would increase the rate to 45%.
White House National Security Advisor Mike Walsh stated that the USA is seeking to fully dismantle Iran's nuclear program as part of any diplomatic resolution with Tehran.
These remarks come at a time when the USA is conducting a series of airstrikes against the Houthi armed group in Yemen, which has received significant military and financial support from Iran in recent years and is considered an agent of Iran.
The Houthi armed group is responding to the airstrikes by resuming targeted attacks against American shipping, which are conducted through waterways such as the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden. As a result, some vessels are once again avoiding the Red Sea, but few ships are returning to that route initially.
(The above content is from the latest perspectives of the independent international energy and commodity price assessment institution Argus.)
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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