深圳当前执行水价为2017年发布，此次深圳水价调整有望带动周边水价调整，水务板块公用水业属性增强。深圳当前执行的自来水价政策是《深圳市发展和改革委员会深圳市水务局关于完善自来水价格政策的通知》，该政策于2017年7月26日发布。作为对比，广深周边多个城市水价有待调整，其中佛山市上次自来水价调整追溯至2016年，中山市则为2012年。On April 11, 2025, Shenzhen plans to hold a water price hearing. The current water price in Shenzhen has been in effect since 2017. This adjustment in Shenzhen's water price is expected to drive adjustments in surrounding water prices, enhancing the public utility attributes of the Water Affairs Sector.
According to the Zhito Finance APP, SWHY released a Research Report stating that on April 11, 2025, Shenzhen plans to hold a hearing on water prices. The comprehensive price of tap water is expected to be adjusted from 3.45 yuan/cubic meter to 3.90 yuan/cubic meter (including tax), an increase of 13.05%. This marks another significant development in water price adjustments in the Guangzhou-Shenzhen area following the price hearing in Guangzhou's central urban area on May 9 last year. The current water price in Shenzhen has been in effect since 2017, and this adjustment is expected to drive surrounding areas to adjust their water prices as well, enhancing the public utility attributes of the Water Affairs Sector. Although the companies operating Water Affairs in Shenzhen are not publicly listed, the water price adjustment in Shenzhen is expected to benefit three types of companies, including urban water operators in the surrounding areas of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
SWHY's main viewpoints are as follows:
The current water price in Shenzhen has been in effect since 2017, and this adjustment is expected to drive surrounding areas to adjust their water prices as well, enhancing the public utility attributes of the Water Affairs Sector. The water price policy currently implemented in Shenzhen is based on the "Notice from the Shenzhen Municipal Development and Reform Commission and Shenzhen Water Affairs Bureau on Improving Tap Water Price Policy," which was issued on July 26, 2017. In comparison, several cities in the surrounding areas of Guangzhou and Shenzhen have water prices pending adjustment, among which the last adjustment in Foshan City dates back to 2016, while in Zhongshan City, it has been since 2012.
The residential water price is generally calculated based on the "allowable cost plus reasonable return" method, where the allowable cost serves as the basis for adjusting the water supply prices.
The price regulatory authority shall establish the water supply price and conduct cost monitoring audits, implementing cost transparency. The price regulatory authority should establish a regular cost monitoring audit system to determine the pricing cost based on periodic cost monitoring audits, which serves as the basis for setting or adjusting water supply prices. The allowable income for water supply enterprises consists of allowable costs, allowable returns, and taxes, where allowable return rate = equity capital return rate × (1 - debt-to-asset ratio) + debt capital return rate × debt-to-asset ratio.
In 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission implemented a policy clarifying that water supply prices can be adjusted every three years, allowing local water companies to have room for price increases.
In June 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development revised and issued the "Management Measures for Urban Water Supply Prices" and the "Cost Verification and Audit Measures for Urban Water Supply Pricing," which took effect in October 2021. Compared to the previously issued "Management Measures for Urban Water Supply Prices" (issued in 1998 and revised in 2004), this new measure further clarifies the pricing principles, methods, and procedures for urban water supply prices on the original basis, and makes adjustments to water price classification and pricing methods. The policy specifies that "the regulatory cycle for urban water supply prices is generally three years, and if adjustments to the water supply prices are needed based on calculations, they should be implemented in a timely manner." The "Cost Verification and Audit Measures for Urban Water Supply Pricing" defines the composition of pricing costs and verification methods, and establishes an incentive constraint mechanism for the maximum number of staff in water supply enterprises and the control of pipeline leakage rates.
Investment advice.
Given that the company operating Shenzhen Water Affairs is not listed, the adjustment of Shenzhen water prices is still expected to benefit three types of companies: 1) Urban water operation companies surrounding Guangzhou and Shenzhen, it is recommended to pay attention to Grandblue Environment (600323.SH), Shunkong Development (003039.SZ), and Zhongshan Public Utilities Group (000685.SZ); 2) Water supply companies in other regions of Guangdong province, as well as raw water suppliers for Shenzhen and Dongguan, it is recommended to pay attention to GUANGDONG INV (00270); 3) Oversold water companies in other regions, it is recommended to pay attention to Chengdu Xingrong Environment (000598.SZ).
Risk Warning
The price-setting authority should conduct cost verification and audits for water supply prices and implement cost transparency, therefore there is a risk of the increase in water prices being lower than the market expectations in terms of progress and magnitude.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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