招银国际指出，考虑到未来15%的股息预扣税和近期铀价的回落，该行将2025E/26E价格假设下调 18%/16%至每磅75/83 美元，盈利预测分别下调28%/35%。尽管如此，该行认为当前较大的合约/现货价差 (2 月份分别为每磅80/65 美元)将有助限制现货价格的进一步下跌。此外, 该行预计, 在哈萨克斯坦矿产资源税于2026年新机制下, 公司的相关税率将会有所下降。将基于净现值(NPV)的目标价从2.36港元下调至2.18港元, 维持“买入CGN MINING (01164) fell more than 4%, as of the time of writing, down 4.29% at HKD 1.56, with a transaction volume of 54.4669 million HKD.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, CGN MINING (01164) has dropped over 4%, currently down 4.29%, priced at 1.56 HKD, with a transaction amount of 54.4669 million HKD.
In terms of news, CGN MINING recently announced its performance for 2024, with sustainable business revenue of approximately 8.624 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 17.18%; the profit attributable to equity holders of the company for this year is approximately 0.342 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%. This is mainly due to the retrospective provision of dividend withholding tax and the termination of operations loss from Fission. HTSC pointed out that while the momentum for a sharp rise in natural Uranium prices is lacking in the short term, they remain Bullish on the upward trend of Uranium prices driven by supply and demand gaps in the medium to long term. The bank noted that the natural Uranium spot market exhibits strong financial attributes, and the rapid decline in prices may be due to the minimal actual impact of the US-Russia enriched Uranium ban, a decrease in expectations for international conflicts following Trump’s entry into office, and cautious market sentiment arising from the easing of supply and demand tensions with the resumption of Uranium mines. The resilience of long-term contract Uranium prices further reflects the underlying tension in the Industry regarding supply and demand.
Zhaoyin International pointed out that considering the 15% dividend withholding tax in the future and the recent decline in Uranium prices, the bank has revised down its price assumptions for 2025E/26E by 18%/16% to 75/83 USD per pound, with profit forecasts lowered by 28%/35% respectively. Nevertheless, the bank believes the current large contract/spot price differential (80/65 USD per pound in February) will help limit further declines in spot prices. Additionally, the bank expects that under the new mechanism for mineral resource tax in Kazakhstan in 2026, the relevant tax rates for the company will decrease. The Target Price based on net present value (NPV) has been adjusted from 2.36 HKD to 2.18 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
